Jeremy Corbyn - fecked?

[DonnyTJS]

11 minutes ago, Eisegerwind said:

I wasn't pointing out to you that the audience was 'mostly English'. I was pointing out that if you substituted the 'English' or 'all-English' with 'mostly Enlglish', that Caledonian Craigs original point stood.

Thanks, though isn't that a little like saying if you substitute 4 for 5 then 2 + 2 = 5 stand?

5 minutes ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Out of interest Donny how do you see things politically in England? Do you feel there is room for a new political party in England or do you feel Tories, Labour and LibDem offer enough variety and quality?

Well, I'm in Japan - hence my sleep-influenced initial question regarding the audience - but I doubt there's a need for another party, the Tories having swallowed most of UKIP. I've thought Corbyn could inspire a Labour resurgence since his election ... it might happen. Got to dash ... work ...

[Eisegerwind]

No.

[FuNsTeR]

1 hour ago, thplinth said:

I don't mean to single out the SNP guy. Jezus, the liberal guy was truly fhucking appalling, the worst by far. But the SNP are coming across just like any other party while Corbyn is coming across like the edge of the same political wave that the SNP was riding (and now isn't).

they were all talking and shouting over each other it was brutal an embarrassing and everyone of them were guilty of it ... when it came to getting their points over both Corbyn and Robertson done well but Lucas did better

[Ally Bongo]

Just seen that Amber Rudd's Dad passed away the other day which makes her having to stand in for Theresa even worse

 

[FuNsTeR]

49 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

Just seen that Amber Rudd's Dad passed away the other day which makes her having to stand in for Theresa even worse

 

yep saw that about 20 minutes ago Ally... really bad show by the Tories putting Amber Rudd in that position tonight

[DonnyTJS]

4 minutes ago, FuNsTeR said:

yep saw that about 20 minutes ago Ally... really bad show by the Tories putting Amber Rudd in that position tonight

Agreed (I'll take a leap of faith and assume it's true without seeing a source...). How bad does that make the prime minister look? A strong and stable delegation of a shite job to the recently bereaved. Pathetic.

[Ally Bongo]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-debate-amber-rudd-death-father-theresa-may-replacement-tories-a7766136.html

[DonnyTJS]

Ta

[aaid]

7 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/election-debate-amber-rudd-death-father-theresa-may-replacement-tories-a7766136.html

Didn't realise she'd been married to AA Gill. 

[Caledonian Craig]

10 hours ago, DonnyTJS said:

Well, I'm in Japan - hence my sleep-influenced initial question regarding the audience - but I doubt there's a need for another party, the Tories having swallowed most of UKIP. I've thought Corbyn could inspire a Labour resurgence since his election ... it might happen. Got to dash ... work ...

Well UKIP got some traction going but have fallen away since they now have no real purpose since Brexit. Just that I say this because the Tories will probably end up getting in despite them not having very popular policies - it is almost like they'll get in by default as trust is even lower in Labour. Surely room for a party with far less extreme views than UKIP or something like an English equivalent of the SNP.

[FuNsTeR]

9 hours ago, DonnyTJS said:

Agreed (I'll take a leap of faith and assume it's true without seeing a source...). How bad does that make the prime minister look? A strong and stable delegation of a shite job to the recently bereaved. Pathetic.

all things considered whether i like Amber Rudds politics or not ... she should not have been put in that position last night it was utterly shameful ... in general i thought the whole debate was a rabble with all present shouting/talking over each other 

[Ally Bongo]

I switched off after 10 mins - believe it was Tim Farron that sent me over the edge - and listened to the BBC Radio drama Sherlock Holmes v Dracula

Wont give any spoilers

[thplinth]

Labour close the gap to 3% in the latest poll. That is within the margin of error. Amazing.

What blew me away about last night especially was that May was not there (and Sturgeon to be honest). What the fhuck is May thinking by not showing up. As bad as she might think she would do that is worse. I read even Corbyn decided to show up for it quite late... smart move (in the end).

The odds on a tory majority are astronomical still (in favour of it). It is very weird because this looks like the momentum is only going one way at this point. May is horrific, Clinton mark II, a complete shocker. Even if she wins she will have lost. Badly wounded. What really worries me is you will see the rat Gove somehow reemerge as a tory leader candidate when the dust settles. Stone cold psychopath. Murdoch's boy so be sure they will try again. Hopefully he burned his bridges after screwing everyone around him for the umpteenth time but I am sure they will at least try again some time down the road.

I did not see Corbyn heckling or interrupting anyone last night. Instead he focused on what he had to say and even then he was continually cut off and interrupted and often by the moderator. It is very noticeable the treatment he gets and it will I suspect also make him more popular. He is coming from so far behind it seems implausible but he looks like he could actually win this from here. That is stunning. To be in with a real chance from just a few weeks ago makes your head spin. May must be struggling to believe this is happening. Next poll could likely have Corbyn leading. At that point you will see a political and media meltdown similar to what we had when YES when into the lead. Glorious. 

This is shaping up to be another massive fhuck you vote. May has ed up so badly here. 

[aaid]

4 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Labour close the gap to 3% in the latest poll. That is within the margin of error. Amazing.

There was another poll yesterday - for the same period - from ICM that had the Tories with a 12 point lead.

The polls are all over the place at the moment.  As was said earlier, a possible reason for that is the weighting that the different polling companies are putting on the young vote which does seem to be overwhelmingly getting behind Corbyn.  

One observation, across the different pollsters, it looks like the Tory vote is holding up, UKIP and Lib Dems are going nowhere and are pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things.  It's the Labour vote that is increasing but not markedly at the expense of other parties.  That's the don't knows/will not vote getting behind Labour.  Remains to be seen whether they will actually turn out though.

[thplinth]

This is a weird one. Corbyn was going nowhere just a few weeks ago. Lame duck leader sitting on top of a crippled party. And nothing really has changed with that since then. Corbyn is Corbyn, same guy doing the same things as he was before when he was 24 points behind May.

What changed was May decided to call a snap election that the whole country did not want. And now he is surging. I think she has triggered something here. She must be shitting it.

Edited June 1, 2017 by thplinth

[Ally Bongo]

The Tories will have a clear Majority

It may not be a landslide but it will be more than they have now

Do not underestimate the immigration & Brexit card 

There are millions of voters who are only interested in that & nothing else

[scot scotland scottish]

7 minutes ago, thplinth said:

This is a weird one. Corbyn was going nowhere just a few weeks ago. Lame duck leader sitting on top of a crippled party. And nothing really has changed with that since then. Corbyn is Corbyn, same guy doing the same things as he was before when he was 24 points behind May.

What changed was May decided to call a snap election that the whole country did not want. And now he is surging. I think she has triggered something here. She must be shitting it.

I'd love you to be proved correct, but i really cant see it in a million years

[DonnyTJS]

1 hour ago, FuNsTeR said:

all things considered whether i like Amber Rudds politics or not ... she should not have been put in that position last night it was utterly shameful ...

Yeah. According to Ally's link she 'insisted' on going on, but even if that were the case, she should've been stopped. This was only ever going to play one way, and it isn't 'How brave of poor Amber', it's 'How nesh of pathetic Theresa'. A quite bizarre decision by the Tory PR machine.

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

Well UKIP got some traction going but have fallen away since they now have no real purpose since Brexit. Just that I say this because the Tories will probably end up getting in despite them not having very popular policies - it is almost like they'll get in by default as trust is even lower in Labour. Surely room for a party with far less extreme views than UKIP or something like an English equivalent of the SNP.

Not sure where to go with that - what would an English equivalent of the SNP stand for? When the UK breaks up, as I'm sure it will, sooner rather than later, because the constitution can't cope with devolution, then I suppose England will become to all intents and purposes 'independent', but in the English context that doesn't really mean anything. The UK is (was?) governed under the English constitutional settlement of 1689; I'd like to think things would continue, constitutionally, as they were once those nations who have been 'devolved' within that constitution (a completely unstable concept) have become fully self-governing and created their own constitutions. That's what I'd like to think would happen - of course it won't. We'll end up with some cobbled together written job, like the rest of you, and that would be a rather shite imho.

[DonnyTJS]

20 minutes ago, thplinth said:

This is a weird one. Corbyn was going nowhere just a few weeks ago. Lame duck leader sitting on top of a crippled party. And nothing really has changed with that since then. Corbyn is Corbyn, same guy doing the same things as he was before when he was 24 points behind May.

What changed was May decided to call a snap election that the whole country did not want. And now he is surging. I think she has triggered something here. She must be shitting it.

Yup, a lot of truth in that, although I wouldn't categorize Corbyn as a lame duck leader a few weeks back. He'd been fighting the battles within the PLP that needed to be fought so that he would be in the position to lead a non-Blairite, non-Milimoribund Labour when the election came. He created a position from which Labour could offer a clear alternative to the new-Labour past and the Tory present.

[thplinth]

19 minutes ago, scot scotland scottish said:

I'd love you to be proved correct, but i really cant see it in a million years

Yes I am getting a little over excited probably.  The bookies odds are massive. But if Corbyn manages to reduce May to a minority government or with a thin majority even then that will be a big moderating force going forward on the mad tory pish she was lining up. I also think this will galvanize support within the LP for Corbyn. He will come out this so much stronger than before and May the opposite. People would start to actually believe he is capable of winning an election assuming the results do end up as the polls are indicating and he does not get thrashed as was expected. It helps he is up against the Maybot obviously. But if Corbyn can achieve take off velocity with the electorate (and you feel he is getting closer) he could push on to whole new level of popularity. In the meantime I am going to relish May's self inflicted discomfort. 

[thplinth]

19 minutes ago, DonnyTJS said:

Yup, a lot of truth in that, although I wouldn't categorize Corbyn as a lame duck leader a few weeks back. He'd been fighting the battles within the PLP that needed to be fought so that he would be in the position to lead a non-Blairite, non-Milimoribund Labour when the election came. He created a position from which Labour could offer a clear alternative to the new-Labour past and the Tory present.

I don think he is personally a lame duck but when you have so many Labour MPs who openly despise him it renders him a lame duck. And I am curious - how many of them the Blairites and Miliblands have been deselected and replaced as labour candidate in the coming GE? It is it none or close to it? If so I am not sure the lame duckery problem has been solved. However nothing brings people to your camp like winning or showing you can win if the party actually came together. That said these back stabbing Labour MPs seem to dislike Corbyn far more than the opposition do...

edit: And it is the fact that this is happening despite the media onslaught on Corbyn from the very start. It is like there is something in the air here, almost palpable. 

Edited June 1, 2017 by thplinth

[DonnyTJS]

6 minutes ago, thplinth said:

I don think he is personally a lame duck but when you have so many Labour MPs who openly despise him it renders him a lame duck. And I am curious - how many of them the Blairites and Miliblands have been deselected and replaced as labour candidate in the coming GE? It is it none or close to it? If so I am not sure the lame duckery problem has been solved. However nothing brings people to your camp like winning or showing you can win if the party actually came together. That said these back stabbing Labour MPs seem to dislike Corbyn far more than the opposition do...

edit: And it is the fact that this is happening despite the media onslaught on Corbyn from the very start. It is like there is something in the air here, almost palpable. 

It's a very good question, and I don't have the answer. I think you're right about 'winning' (defined in a fairly wide sense at present ...) making a potential difference. New Labour wasn't ideological except in the fluffiest of ways. Its PLP adherents don't have the ideological backbone to oppose success - they crave it.

[aaid]

56 minutes ago, DonnyTJS said:

The UK is (was?) governed under the English constitutional settlement of 1689; I'd like to think things would continue, constitutionally, as they were once those nations who have been 'devolved' within that constitution (a completely unstable concept) have become fully self-governing and created their own constitutions. That's what I'd like to think would happen - of course it won't. We'll end up with some cobbled together written job, like the rest of you, and that would be a rather shite imho.

It's the 1689 Claim of Right that applies in Scotland, 1689 Bill of Rights that applies in England, Wales and - presumably - Northern Ireland. 

Edited June 1, 2017 by aaid

[Orraloon]

9 minutes ago, DonnyTJS said:

It's a very good question, and I don't have the answer. I think you're right about 'winning' (defined in a fairly wide sense at present ...) making a potential difference. New Labour wasn't ideological except in the fluffiest of ways. Its PLP adherents don't have the ideological backbone to oppose success - they crave it.

Thplinth guessed right, it's pretty much none. All sitting MPs who wanted to stand again were re-selected. The snap election meant that Corbyn didn't have time to start getting them de-selected. So he will still have that issue to sort out but if he does as well as the polls are currently trying to tell us, then that should make that job a wee bit easier.

I think the media have unwittingly help Corbyn by turning this election into a May v Corbyn contest. I haven't seen much of the Blairites on TV. They have been kept in the background. The same place Abbot should be from now on.

 

[DonnyTJS]

26 minutes ago, aaid said:

It's the 1689 Claim of Right that applies in Scotland, 1689 Bill of Rights that applies in England, Wales and - presumably - Northern Ireland. 

Yes, I was over-simplifying - and it's a very good point, hence the different legal, religious and educational situations that exist. I was lumping the whole 'Bill of Rights / Act of Settlement (1701)' constitutional evolutionary phase together. The latter was incorporated (none too subtly) into Scots Law after 1707.