phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 14 minutes ago, Parklife said: Yeah, I've been listening to the 538 podcasts the last week or so too. Very informative and, as you say, pretty neutral. With the exception of how scathing they've been on the Trump campaign's anti-democratic tactics. Theres been a lot of talk of the under-weighting of education in polls last time around (which led to an underplaying of the Trump vote) and how this has now been corrected. We'll see if the pollsters' deeds are as good as their words in around 24 hours time. To be fair it's still neutral to want everyones vote to count in an election. Aye i listened to the friday poll one for last wee while. I listen to the daily one as well. 538 gave Trump a 30% chance last time. I think it's a possibility that folk are over correcting for last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling hIlls Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, Parklife said: Yeah, I've been listening to the 538 podcasts the last week or so too. Very informative and, as you say, pretty neutral. With the exception of how scathing they've been on the Trump campaign's anti-democratic tactics. Theres been a lot of talk of the under-weighting of education in polls last time around (which led to an underplaying of the Trump vote) and how this has now been corrected. We'll see if the pollsters' deeds are as good as their words in around 24 hours time. You given up on football? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 15 minutes ago, Rolling hIlls said: You given up on football? No. Why would I have? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThistleWhistle Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 hour ago, Parklife said: FiveThirtyEight giving Biden a 90% chance of winning as we enter Election Day. Key states appear to be, in particular, Pennsylvania (Biden polling somewhere around 5% ahead) and Florida (neck and neck). If one candidate can take both these States, it's unlikely the won't win. Trump's campaign are already talking of declaring victory if they're ahead on the early count, in an attempt to delegitimise remaining postal votes that haven't yet been counted. A quote shameful tactic which completely betrays the democratic ideals that the USA claims to stand for. Whatever happens, the fall out over the next few months will not be pretty. Trump won't go quietly and, if he wins again, I can see both he and the lunatics in his support becoming emboldened in their rhetoric and their actions. Saw that Florida have started a week or so back in preparing votes to be counted but in Pennsylvania the whole process can't start until polls close so could take days to announce. In 2016 there was 139m votes in total - in 2020 there's been 95m early votes already in with about 60m of them postal compared to 25m-30m last time. Add in social distancing and postal counts could easily be delayed beyond usual. It would be very 2020 if Trump claims victory on the night and Biden actually wins a week later. Trump's already said he'd take it all the way to the Supreme Court too. Although against usual protocol given proximity to the election probably explains his urgency to get Amy Coney Barrett in situ pronto. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rolling hIlls Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 29 minutes ago, Parklife said: No. Why would I have? Not posted on the football bit for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parklife Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, Rolling hIlls said: Not posted on the football bit for a while. Gee, I wonder why that could be... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThistleWhistle Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 The average of these swing-state polls has tightened since the middle of October, with Trump narrowing the deficit to two percentage points as of Monday. Florida: Biden 1.8+ lead Pennsylvania: Biden 2.6+ lead Michigan: Biden 5.1+ lead Wisconsin: Biden 6.7+ lead North Carolina: Trump 0.2+ lead Arizona: Biden 0.9+ lead Quite tight in the polls for a couple of those swing states. I hadn't realised it could end 269-269 which has 2020 levels of bat shit insanity written all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said: The average of these swing-state polls has tightened since the middle of October, with Trump narrowing the deficit to two percentage points as of Monday. Florida: Biden 1.8+ lead Pennsylvania: Biden 2.6+ lead Michigan: Biden 5.1+ lead Wisconsin: Biden 6.7+ lead North Carolina: Trump 0.2+ lead Arizona: Biden 0.9+ lead Quite tight in the polls for a couple of those swing states. I hadn't realised it could end 269-269 which has 2020 levels of bat shit insanity written all over it. Not sure where you got those figures. I use https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo Which is an aggregate, they had Trump 30% of winning in 2016. 1% chance of a tie this time! Edited November 3, 2020 by phart Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThistleWhistle Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, phart said: Not sure where you got those figures. I use https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo Which is an aggregate, they had Trump 30% of winning in 2016. 1% chance of a tie this time! Yeah read that last night so was pretty surprised when saw a couple of the battle ground states were easily within margin for error https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/ Got it off the Beeb comments as a poll aggregator so not really sure beyond that of their standing. Thought this was interesting though: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/02/five_indicators_of_the_trump-biden_outcome.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said: Yeah read that last night so was pretty surprised when saw a couple of the battle ground states were easily within margin for error https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/ Got it off the Beeb comments as a poll aggregator so not really sure beyond that of their standing. Thought this was interesting though: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/11/02/five_indicators_of_the_trump-biden_outcome.html I think the polling error from last time has everyone a lot more cautious and uncertain. Not sure how good an indicator those 5 points are, the US is so polarised and also diverse. The author of it also writing about George Soros and articles about how Trump is winning "running circles round Biden" being one of them, writing articles defending Fox news for downplaying the coronavirus. Saying vaccines cause autism etc. She might know more about politics than immunology though. I have no clue what is going to happen tonight. Probably be a legal mess though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 16 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said: Yeah read that last night so was pretty surprised when saw a couple of the battle ground states were easily within margin for error https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/ Isn’t that exactly why they are battleground states though, because they’re tight contests. Equivalent of key marginals in UK terms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Trump will win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, IMO. Arizona will be close but he'll probably take it, and Pennsylvania will be a huge long, drawn out court battle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThistleWhistle Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, phart said: I think the polling error from last time has everyone a lot more cautious and uncertain. Not sure how good an indicator those 5 points are, the US is so polarised and also diverse. The author of it also writing about George Soros and articles about how Trump is winning "running circles round Biden" being one of them, writing articles defending Fox news for downplaying the coronavirus. Saying vaccines cause autism etc. She might know more about politics than immunology though. I have no clue what is going to happen tonight. Probably be a legal mess though. Probably she just got lucky last time around taking a punt. On the other hand maybe she's able to read the room and possibly some of her writings represent an element of US population that'll come out to vote tonight. When about half the country don't normally vote, but there's already been about 70% of 2016 total vote cast 'early', pollsters could be in for a tricky ride again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 if there is a polling error of the same magnitude as last time in favour of Trump, Biden wins with 279 EC votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThistleWhistle Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 13 minutes ago, aaid said: Isn’t that exactly why they are battleground states though, because they’re tight contests. Equivalent of key marginals in UK terms. Get that but the point was in relation to the polls giving Biden a 90% chance of winning. As a 9/10 shot I was surprised the battle grounds were polling as tightly. For a 90% punt I'd expected those to seem a more foregone conclusion rather than a couple being within margin for error. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ThistleWhistle said: Probably she just got lucky last time around taking a punt. On the other hand maybe she's able to read the room and possibly some of her writings represent an element of US population that'll come out to vote tonight. When about half the country don't normally vote, but there's already been about 70% of 2016 total vote cast 'early', pollsters could be in for a tricky ride again. 100 million voted already, i think 135 million voted last time, the turn out is going to be huge. Some states release the political registration of sent in ballots. The democrats are up 3-1 in some states on that front. But repubs have always turned out on the day. Unfortunately none of the bookies are giving any decent odds on a Biden win as best i can see is 4/7. If the odds were better I would put some money on Biden win and just trust the polls. Need better odds though as uncertainty there from last time and all the legal shenaningans like trying to chuck out votes via court system, stop counting at midnight etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 11 minutes ago, weekevie04 said: Trump will win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, IMO. Arizona will be close but he'll probably take it, and Pennsylvania will be a huge long, drawn out court battle. Can get 7/1 for him winning those states. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I've just spent 3 weeks listening to statisticians talk about how they've refined their polling models etc and how they corrected for 2016 (which was within margin of error anyway) so i've been propagandised to trust the polls i guess 🤣 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, phart said: Can get 7/1 for him winning those states. I've already put them all on individually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, weekevie04 said: I've already put them all on individually. There's no value (for me) if you think the polls are roughly correct. Florida and Ohio i think Trump will get, the other two i don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, phart said: There's no value (for me) if you think the polls are roughly correct. Florida and Ohio i think Trump will get, the other two i don't know. Agree. With the high turnout too, I'm not even sure how it will go. I put these all on about a month or so ago. Arizona 5/4 Ohio 11/10 Florida 6/5 Pennsylvania 3/1 New Hampshire 4/1 North Carolina 6/5 I don't expect them to win all of those states, but there was literally no value in betting on the Democrats especially in the likes of Florida, NC they were 8/11 etc back then. I thought it would tighten. I don't think he will win NH or Penn, but odds were too good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThistleWhistle Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 National Committee of Asian Republicans formally backed Biden last night: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/national-committee-asian-american-republicans-officially-endorses-biden-n1245845 Not sure it'll have as big an impact as NBC are suggesting but seemed suitably 2020 in its nuttiness. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, weekevie04 said: Agree. With the high turnout too, I'm not even sure how it will go. I put these all on about a month or so ago. Arizona 5/4 Ohio 11/10 Florida 6/5 Pennsylvania 3/1 New Hampshire 4/1 North Carolina 6/5 I don't expect them to win all of those states, but there was literally no value in betting on the Democrats especially in the likes of Florida, NC they were 8/11 etc back then. I thought it would tighten. I don't think he will win NH or Penn, but odds were too good. Yeah those odds make it worth it, plus thinking at the time, polls normally tighten, incumbent president, some "october surprise" and the last election uncertainty around polls. They might not all come up but seem rational bets especially at the time! Texas has already exceeded their 2016 total votes and polls not even open yet, seems the youth are coming out in huge chunks as well. Who they go for who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phart Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 7 minutes ago, ThistleWhistle said: National Committee of Asian Republicans formally backed Biden last night: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/national-committee-asian-american-republicans-officially-endorses-biden-n1245845 Not sure it'll have as big an impact as NBC are suggesting but seemed suitably 2020 in its nuttiness. I think Asians are 4.6% of the electorate (according to the podcast i listened to 2 days ago) plus they range from mega republicans to mega democrats defo not a monolith. This year is bananas. Also on course to be the hottest year on record as well. Artic ice is 25% of what it should be at this time as well. Just to throw in the even bigger spectre of that shit in the next decade or so! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 11 am in Florida and already the number of votes cast is at the same level - probably passed by now - as 2016. High turnout supposed to favour Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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