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70% Think We Will Be Independent


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When the UK ends, I hope that it happens peacefully and by mutual consent. An acceptance of the inevitable and a willingness to work constructively will help.

Must confess I am not sure that would have been the case had we had a narrow yes vote in September.

Im sure it would have been fine but it's increasingly clear how important that if and when it does happen, it has a significant majority. Better Together knew the importance of winning and winning well when the campaign started but they had no choice but to accept a win in any way they can. Look at the mess it created. I mentioned it before September as well that while I would take any kind of win at all, the best thing for Scotland was to win by a huge margin. Monetary Union, negotiations, attitudes and tensions across the country - all needed a clear and significant majority to ensure it progressed well. I wont lie: the oil price since September would have made for a horrendous backdrop to independence negotiations and while it has been hard to stomach, we've maybe dodged a bullet this time. When we do win it, and I think we will, we need over 60% at least voting yes. It needs to be way beyond doubt.

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Some encouraging signs post-referendum with the post-indy polls pretty much neck and neck, this, and the 3 Indy parties having increased membership plus good polling (SNP for both Westminister & Holyrood, Greens - Holyrood and the SSP in a few look like picking up a seat or two).

I think and hope the monetary issues are clearer and we find a better way to deal with them, along with I'd hope we'd be seeing at least 55% Yes before we even think of another Indy ref.

I remember on the 19th of September, I wrote down after a few greets and beers with pals, what I think will happen.

2015 - SNP win most seats and highest share of the vote. A bit here and a bit there further devolved to Scotland, but nothing substanial to create anything meaningful.

2016 - SNP put a Devo Max referendum in their manifesto after talks/further powers from Westminister stall. SNP then say to the people, we need maximum devolution to further enhance and better Scotland. SNP and Greens win enough for a majority between them. Both parties back the Devo Max ref which will be held in 2018. Scotland votes yes to Devo Max.

Then I'm not sure what happens, lots of rangling, arguying possibly between the two governments.

Once Devo Max is delivered, it'll be maybe 4-5 years before folk think - why do we still have the weapons here, let's go for real Indy!

We'll get there. We'll definitely get there, even if my havers above are a bit optimistic.

We'll definitley get there.

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Im increasingly nervous about Devo Max. Given Yes lost in September, it's hard to believe that it has gone so well in our favour since. The polling is almost too good to be true. I didn't ever think the UK would seriously consider Devo Max but it's getting to the point where they're going to have no option - if it were a choice between Scottish independence and keeping Scotland inside the British military, they're surely going to choose the latter in an attempt to keep some worldwide projection of Britain going.

However, given the current momentum, we'd be daft to take it. The SNP can't delay Devo Max until May 2016 - they need to turn the screw now in order to make their point. The more time we allow them to consider and reflect on polling/electoral realit, they more they might consider Devo Max as a serious proposal. The General Election manifesto must demand Devo Max/Home Rule/federalism. When it's shunned, more people will move to support independence. By May 2016, that opportunity could be lost.

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Holyrood 2016 will probably be the most interesting Scottish election to date. Will the Tartan socialists stick with the SNP, or will they be swayed by a progressive manifesto from the SLP? My moneys on Nationalism leading the way.

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Im increasingly nervous about Devo Max. Given Yes lost in September, it's hard to believe that it has gone so well in our favour since. The polling is almost too good to be true. I didn't ever think the UK would seriously consider Devo Max but it's getting to the point where they're going to have no option - if it were a choice between Scottish independence and keeping Scotland inside the British military, they're surely going to choose the latter in an attempt to keep some worldwide projection of Britain going.

However, given the current momentum, we'd be daft to take it. The SNP can't delay Devo Max until May 2016 - they need to turn the screw now in order to make their point. The more time we allow them to consider and reflect on polling/electoral realit, they more they might consider Devo Max as a serious proposal. The General Election manifesto must demand Devo Max/Home Rule/federalism. When it's shunned, more people will move to support independence. By May 2016, that opportunity could be lost.

by what mechanism do we get dev-max ? so the SNP say in 2016 'vote for us and we'll give you dev-max' - they have no sovereignty and can't deliver so what next ?

Do we need a referendum on devo max with a majority Yes being a claim on sovereignty ?

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The Express' headline on the other hand says:

69% FEAR UK WILL SPLIT

Saw that and thought it was scary.

When I say scary I don't mean in any political way but in the sense that certain papers seem to just print anything regardless of it being true.

It is remarkable that anybody would buy such a publication.

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When the UK ends, I hope that it happens peacefully and by mutual consent. An acceptance of the inevitable and a willingness to work constructively will help.

Must confess I am not sure that would have been the case had we had a narrow yes vote in September.

Yes agree with this and as someone else pointed out independence isn't as such an alien idea now as it was a few years ago. I know many on here have always wanted it but myself and most of my circle of friends (in our mid 40's) hadn't considered it until the build up to the referendum.
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Holyrood 2016 will probably be the most interesting Scottish election to date. Will the Tartan socialists stick with the SNP, or will they be swayed by a progressive manifesto from the SLP? My moneys on Nationalism leading the way.

Will you be helping to write that "progressive manifesto"?

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why did they vote no?

Alot of the no-voters were on are are approaching final salary pensions. They seem to be voting for the status quo as they believe that the union ( stability) would secure their pension. Unfortunately due to the baby boom in the 50's they hold a large portion of the votes. Hence we did not get over the finishing line.

Close but no cigar, in ten years time they will have passed on and we will go again.

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