What Year Will Scotland Be Independent?

[weekevie04]

What year do you personally think Scotland will be independent, if it ever will?

With a clear punt in the dark, I'll go for 2019.

[min]

2021. Think the 2016 Holyrood election will be fought on a Devo Max wait and see platform. When Westminster fails to deliver, independence will be policy Nr. 1 in 2020 and there will be no need for a long campaign, so 2021 is the year!

[Flat Earth]

Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce says oil will run out in 2150.

So we'll be Independent in 2151.

[weekevie04]

2021. Think the 2016 Holyrood election will be fought on a Devo Max wait and see platform. When Westminster fails to deliver, independence will be policy Nr. 1 in 2020 and there will be no need for a long campaign, so 2021 is the year!

Think so too.

SNP will make large gains next year, don't know if it'll be anything like the numbers the sub Scottish samples are showing up e.g 50% SNP. I doubt it'll be anything like that, but we'll return at least double the number of SNP MPs to London in 2015.

Smith Commission will be nothing of substance. Just looked at today's debate - we seen none of the 'Vow' pledgers in attendance.

I don't think UKIP will do well next year, I think they'll get squeezed, but still no matter who it is in govt in the UK - Scotland will be the same and ignored.

Some Scots, the BritNats like Alan are happy seeing us doing nothing at all and getting pocket money from London. The rest of us aren't - I know people who hadn't voted for 10-12 years who voted yes - now have now donated money or joined the the pro-indy parties. My pal, a long abstaining ''I'll vote when the real ones comes around'' emailing me he had joined the SSP and we'll be independent etc.

If you meet a hardcore, or glad Unionist often I've heard ''So happy this is all over'' or ''get over it''.

Of course, we should accept the result, but this is most definitely not the end.

As we'll soon see in the next months/years.

[Armchair Bob]

In a generation's time. 2036.

[Armchair Bob]

Just realised that if we make France 2016, then it will have been roughly a generation since the last time we graced a major finals...

[biffer]

2022

[peasoupblu]

I think respondents should be clear on if it is the year they hope or the year they expect. There is a big difference! The stickers are fading on lamposts and life has moved on. The reality is 55% voted no and I have never spoken to another no voter who gave two hoots about the vow. The only people I have heard banging on about the vow are the very people who voted yes despite of the vow. I would think another referendum in about 12 years and another no vote and that will be the end for the SNP.

[thplinth]

Can't see another vote for 10 years. Not sure I'd want one any sooner.

edit: if we do have another vote next time it will be the majority of people demanding it rather than the SNP having faith they will come round in sufficient numbers. They cannot risk being cheated again so the mandate has to be clear.

Edited October 15, 2014 by thplinth

[phil]

I think respondents should be clear on if it is the year they hope or the year they expect. There is a big difference! The stickers are fading on lamposts and life has moved on. The reality is 55% voted no and I have never spoken to another no voter who gave two hoots about the vow. The only people I have heard banging on about the vow are the very people who voted yes despite of the vow. I would think another referendum in about 12 years and another no vote and that will be the end for the SNP.

Totally agree. I don't know a single No voter who was influenced by 'the vow'. The SNP are playing up the treachery and betrayal angle - before it has even happened - to push for another referendum and keep their bandwagon rolling. Yes did well, but lost. That should be accepted, No voters respected, and another go, if that's what people want, in a generation.

[Alibi]

Totally agree. I don't know a single No voter who was influenced by 'the vow'. The SNP are playing up the treachery and betrayal angle - before it has even happened - to push for another referendum and keep their bandwagon rolling. Yes did well, but lost. That should be accepted, No voters respected, and another go, if that's what people want, in a generation.

Respect has to be earned. I can't respect people who think so little of their nation and their countrymen or countrywomen that they turned down the opportunity for us to be a normal nation. There is nothing to respect.

I don't actually trust the result TBH. I don't know how they changed what was a clear Yes lead (from canvassing returns and private polling) into a No win, but something about the whole thing stinks. The only conclusion is that either a lot of people changed their mind at the last minute due to the vow, or there was something going on behind the scenes to ensure a no win.

[ParisInAKilt]

How long is a generation? There should be another go if and when the people of Scotland want it.

The majority of under 50's voted YES. It was very close and this should be remembered. Westminster made significant promises and they should be held accountable if they are no honoured. Milliband said social justice was best achieved with a no vote.

Unfortunately I know no voters who were persuaded to give the union another chance because of the promise of extra powers.

Edited October 15, 2014 by ParisInAKilt

[ParisInAKilt]

2022

[biffer]

Respect has to be earned. I can't respect people who think so little of their nation and their countrymen or countrywomen that they turned down the opportunity for us to be a normal nation. There is nothing to respect.

I don't actually trust the result TBH. I don't know how they changed what was a clear Yes lead (from canvassing returns and private polling) into a No win, but something about the whole thing stinks. The only conclusion is that either a lot of people changed their mind at the last minute due to the vow, or there was something going on behind the scenes to ensure a no win.

Or people were saying yes to get people off their doorstep.

[Rossy]

Totally agree. I don't know a single No voter who was influenced by 'the vow'. The SNP are playing up the treachery and betrayal angle - before it has even happened - to push for another referendum and keep their bandwagon rolling. Yes did well, but lost. That should be accepted, No voters respected, and another go, if that's what people want, in a generation.

Seems to be the Cringers tactic of choice these days....'no-one was influenced by the vow'.

Of course, that's rubbish...but anyway, it's neither here nor there.

The 'vow' was made, and home rule/federal UK/devo max was promised to the people of Scotland. Unequivocably.

Just because you and a couple of your mates aren't interested in any more powers for Scotland doesn't mean that there aren't millions of people out there who expect the Scottish government to get the 'extensive new powers' as promised.

It's the duty of the Scottish government (which in this case has a SNP administration) to hold Westminster to account for this, and to puch for the maximum powers possible. I suspect that many....and polls seem to back this up.....see 'home rule' (Brown's words) as all powers devolved aside from defence and foreign affairs.

You might not like this, but well, tough.

Edited October 15, 2014 by Rossy

[Ally Bongo]

See a No voter ?

See a No voter that was not interested in more powers to make Scotland a better place ?

See a No voter that is totally happy being ruled by the corrupt establishment at Westminster and does not want that to change ?

See someone that would vote No regardless of anything else ?

They are the worse type of ers

[thplinth]

Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce says oil will run out in 2150.

So we'll be Independent in 2151.

I have been praying for a breakthrough in Cold Fusion.

[Rossy]

See a No voter ?

See a No voter that was not interested in more powers to make Scotland a better place ?

See a No voter that is totally happy being ruled by the corrupt establishment at Westminster and does not want that to change ?

See someone that would vote No regardless of anything else ?

They are the worse type of ers

:lol:

:ok: :ok:

[scotlad]

Seems to be the Cringers tactic of choice these days....'no-one was influenced by the vow'.

Of course, that's rubbish...but anyway, it's neither here nor there.

The 'vow' was made, and home rule/federal UK/devo max was promised to the people of Scotland. Unequivocably.

Just because you and a couple of your mates aren't interested in any more powers for Scotland doesn't mean that there aren't millions of people out there who expect the Scottish government to get the 'extensive new powers' as promised.

It's the duty of the Scottish government (which in this case has a SNP administration) to hold Westminster to account for this, and to puch for the maximum powers possible. I suspect that many....and polls seem to back this up.....see 'home rule' (Brown's words) as all powers devolved aside from defence and foreign affairs.

You might not like this, but well, tough.

At the time I was highly sceptical that 'the vow' would influence many people, mainly because it was never, and still isn't, quite clear what is on offer. But if even 10% of those who voted No were swayed away from Yes because of it then it clearly affected the overall outcome of the referendum and the people who made the promise must deliver.

Of course, the hardcore Nos would love nothing more than for the pro-independence movement just to wither and die but they are kidding themselves on if they think this is going to happen. I know of one unionist who gets visibly irked by the mere sight of a No badge or sticker, which pleases me no end. The independence debate has invigorated so many people and once folk have awakened it takes a while before they drift back to sleep again.

[thplinth]

If you had a three way vote with Yes, Devo Max (the implied Vow) & No I am pretty sure Devo Max would get well above 20% easy, probably closer to 30%.

So the swing it produced when positioned under the No vote was significant. It was a disgrace what they did, scandalous.

[tomtscotland]

If you had a three way vote with Yes, Devo Max (the implied Vow) & No I am pretty sure Devo Max would get well above 20% easy, probably closer to 30%.

So the swing it produced when positioned under the No vote was significant. It was a disgrace what they did, scandalous.

Agree - it simply can't be argued any other way.

The offer, the vow, was made to stymie the momentum to Yes and it did more than that - it reversed the trend. If we lived in a democracy not controlled by the Establishment then media would be arguing that this was an affront to democracy.

Where were the Panorma type programmes investigating what the Establishment got up to so that a Yes vote was averted? The answer of course is that the media are part of Establishment as those in control are there at the behest of the Establishment. Call it what you will - the old boy network, appointments through patronage or vested interests. Public opinion is easily manipulated by one-sided media and especially so when so many are conditioned to unquestioningly accept the media's message as truth.

[Clyde1998]

I think it depends on UKIP. If they are the ones to prop up the government in 2015 - then there will be an EU referendum in 2015. If the vote is to leave the EU, then I reckon the SNP would run a pro-independence campaign for 2016 and have a referendum in late 2016-early 2017 and we could be independent by 2018.

[Rossy]

I think it depends on UKIP. If they are the ones to prop up the government in 2015 - then there will be an EU referendum in 2015. If the vote is to leave the EU, then I reckon the SNP would run a pro-independence campaign for 2016 and have a referendum in late 2016-early 2017 and we could be independent by 2018.

I can't possibly see UKIP getting enough seats to prop up a Tory government. They're getting publicity well beyond their influence at this moment....I reckon they'll get no more than 4 or 5 seats tops, and that will be considerably less than the SNP or even the Lib Dems.

The influence they do have is in driving the Tories (and even Labour) ever more to the right. That in itself could well be enough to guarantee a referendum on EU membership within the next 2 years.....and if the next leader of the Tories happens to be Boris Johnson...who has nothing but disdain for Scotland, then I'll be interested to see how that impacts on politics in Scotland.

As has been proven though, there are those in Scotland who are happy to accept any degradation that Westminster loads on us, and are happy to get shagged up the arse regularly, because they're either ; rabid BritNats/rabid haters of the SNP/people who don't give a shit and just want to stick their fingers in their ears (delete as appropriate).

Any movement towards 'home rule' or even independence will have to deal with at least 30% of the population who are absolutely intransigent.

[thorbotnic]

I think it depends on UKIP. If they are the ones to prop up the government in 2015 - then there will be an EU referendum in 2015. If the vote is to leave the EU, then I reckon the SNP would run a pro-independence campaign for 2016 and have a referendum in late 2016-early 2017 and we could be independent by 2018.

I think this has to be 'if the vote is to leave the EU, but the majority in Scotland is to stay'

Edit: I also think that, if there is a referendum, the vote will be to stay.

Edited October 15, 2014 by thorbotnic

[Armchair Bob]

See the devo max issue - polls a couple of years ago had opinion split pretty evenly between status quo, devo max, indy. So it seems likely that folk who wanted devo max also went Yes as well as No - in fact there might have been more devo maxxers went yes (folk like Canon Kenyon Wright) rather than no, as you'd have to be awfy trusting to believe 'The Vow'.