Holyrood Elections 2021

[aaid]

29 minutes ago, scotlad said:

I thought he did okay at Transport, but his ego got the better of him when he got the Justice job.

To be honest, anyone who gets the Health gig has my sympathies; next to education it has to be the hardest job in the cabinet.

First of all, I don't think there's a vacancy right now or at any point in the foreseeable future but I've had the impression that Humza Yousaf has been earmarked as one of the possible replacements for Nicola Sturgeon when she eventually steps aside.   He seems to be on a path of getting more and more responsibility.   As you point out they two biggest jobs outwith the FM are Health and Education.   It's not a surprise to me that he's been given Health.   Time will tell if he does a good job or not.

For Education, again it's a massive department and one with a lot of problems.  I think there's an element of looking around and seeing who would actually be able to take it on.   Probably needs to be someone already in the cabinet, not really a role to appoint a junior minister straight into.   She was looking to slim down the cabinet and with so many cabinet secretaries retiring the pool of available candidates wasn't massive.   I don't think she could have brought Robison back in and put her in Education.  Angela Constance had done the role before and was sacked and has just been given the Drugs role.  I suspect that all that was left was Shirley Anne Somerville.  At least she has some experience as she was minister for Further Education for a couple of years under Swinney.  Good luck to her, she certainly needs it

 

[TDYER63]

3 hours ago, scotlad said:

I thought he did okay at Transport, but his ego got the better of him when he got the Justice job.

To be honest, anyone who gets the Health gig has my sympathies; next to education it has to be the hardest job in the cabinet.

I think you are absolutely right about his ego. He talks a good game , and I dont dislike him, I just think he is overhyped.

But yes, you have to sympathise with anyone going into health , particularly in the aftermath of this last year. Hopefully he will rise to the challenge. I dont have too much problems with egos if they get results.  

[TDYER63]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

First of all, I don't think there's a vacancy right now or at any point in the foreseeable future but I've had the impression that Humza Yousaf has been earmarked as one of the possible replacements for Nicola Sturgeon when she eventually steps aside.   He seems to be on a path of getting more and more responsibility.   As you point out they two biggest jobs outwith the FM are Health and Education.   It's not a surprise to me that he's been given Health.   Time will tell if he does a good job or not.

For Education, again it's a massive department and one with a lot of problems.  I think there's an element of looking around and seeing who would actually be able to take it on.   Probably needs to be someone already in the cabinet, not really a role to appoint a junior minister straight into.   She was looking to slim down the cabinet and with so many cabinet secretaries retiring the pool of available candidates wasn't massive.   I don't think she could have brought Robison back in and put her in Education.  Angela Constance had done the role before and was sacked and has just been given the Drugs role.  I suspect that all that was left was Shirley Anne Somerville.  At least she has some experience as she was minister for Further Education for a couple of years under Swinney.  Good luck to her, she certainly needs it

 

Its a wee bit worrying that such an important  dept ( education)  is being given to someone through process of elimination . This is an area that really needs improved and is constantly being targeted by the opposition.  

[aaid]

1 hour ago, TDYER63 said:

Its a wee bit worrying that such an important  dept ( education)  is being given to someone through process of elimination . This is an area that really needs improved and is constantly being targeted by the opposition.  

I don't disagree with you, but do you have a better suggestion?

[TDYER63]

6 minutes ago, aaid said:

I don't disagree with you, but do you have a better suggestion?

With the options available I dont dispute it is difficult. With so little choice I would have kept some continuity with John Swinney, with a junior minister to support him , someone with energy and fresh ideas but with Swinneys experience to steady things.  I dont think chopping and changing is always effective especially  with all the upheaval of the pandemic on education . 

I am aware keeping him on may not have gone down well  right enough and perhaps a complete change brings hope things will improve. I hope she does well. I feel no personal animosity towards her just concern about her relative inexperience in such a difficult area. 
 

[aaid]

18 minutes ago, TDYER63 said:

With the options available I dont dispute it is difficult. With so little choice I would have kept some continuity with John Swinney, with a junior minister to support him , someone with energy and fresh ideas but with Swinneys experience to steady things.  I dont think chopping and changing is always effective especially  with all the upheaval of the pandemic on education . 

I am aware keeping him on may not have gone down well  right enough and perhaps a complete change brings hope things will improve. I hope she does well. I feel no personal animosity towards her just concern about her relative inexperience in such a difficult area. 
 

I suspect that no matter what happens there will be some sort of outrage over the exam results again this year if only as its a situation where it is impossible to please everyone and you can rely on a combination of the media and the opposition to whip up a feeding frenzy.   Lots of crying teenagers on Reporting Scotland.

I also think that when the OECD report is released that will be pretty damning as well - or at least aspects of it will be.  With both of those I suspect that Swinney's position would have proven to be untenable, by moving him out now, it pre-empts that inevitable defeat.  Although I fully expect that Douglas Ross will call for Shirley Ann Somerville's head - probably before the report's published.

Not that she's got nothing to do but with giving Swinney a key role over COVID recovery, I wonder what the FM is planning to give her focus to - presumably COVID in the short to medium term, but after that?

[fringo]

54 minutes ago, aaid said:

I suspect that no matter what happens there will be some sort of outrage over the exam results again this year if only as its a situation where it is impossible to please everyone and you can rely on a combination of the media and the opposition to whip up a feeding frenzy.   Lots of crying teenagers on Reporting Scotland.

I also think that when the OECD report is released that will be pretty damning as well - or at least aspects of it will be.  With both of those I suspect that Swinney's position would have proven to be untenable, by moving him out now, it pre-empts that inevitable defeat.  Although I fully expect that Douglas Ross will call for Shirley Ann Somerville's head - probably before the report's published.

Not that she's got nothing to do but with giving Swinney a key role over COVID recovery, I wonder what the FM is planning to give her focus to - presumably COVID in the short to medium term, but after that?

I think it's next going to be NHS in general and clearing a backlog of hospital appoints, procedures/ops and treatments.

[Caledonian Craig]

1 hour ago, fringo said:

I think it's next going to be NHS in general and clearing a backlog of hospital appoints, procedures/ops and treatments.

I cannot see the backlog being shifted. Fact is there was a backlog across the UK way before the pandemic struck so there is no way an even longer backlog will get shifted.

[hampden_loon2878]

Somerville is the biggest waste of space ever, and seems to keep her job regardless of how useless she is!!, maybe this will finally see her being sacked from the cabinet,,  

[hampden_loon2878]

I dont know much about M Gougeon for rural affairs, is she capable enough? 

[TDYER63]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

I suspect that no matter what happens there will be some sort of outrage over the exam results again this year if only as its a situation where it is impossible to please everyone and you can rely on a combination of the media and the opposition to whip up a feeding frenzy.   Lots of crying teenagers on Reporting Scotland.

I also think that when the OECD report is released that will be pretty damning as well - or at least aspects of it will be.  With both of those I suspect that Swinney's position would have proven to be untenable, by moving him out now, it pre-empts that inevitable defeat.  Although I fully expect that Douglas Ross will call for Shirley Ann Somerville's head - probably before the report's published.

Not that she's got nothing to do but with giving Swinney a key role over COVID recovery, I wonder what the FM is planning to give her focus to - presumably COVID in the short to medium term, but after that?

I never considered the impending  OECD report, just one of 2,745,785 reasons why I am not FM. You are right, the contents could force him out so best to pre empt it.   
 

1 hour ago, fringo said:

I think it's next going to be NHS in general and clearing a backlog of hospital appoints, procedures/ops and treatments.

I thought aaid was hinting that she would be focusing on another referendum . I read too much into things sometimes 😊
 

[AlfieMoon]

The education sector and opposition were gunning for for Swinney so is the right thing to move him on. As aaid has said, with another exams fiasco brewing and OECD report on the horizon it is good timing for the SNP. 
 

Unfortunately it seems that Education and Health are poisoned chalices. While I think there will always be things that go wrong in Health and certain happenings that allow the opposition to make political capital, I think in contrast they should be doing better with Education at getting ahead of the game.
 

The lack of choice for a strong lead on Education is disappointing but I’d also point out that Swinney should have been a heavyweight with experience. I think he seemingly took advice from some of the wrong people in the sector and made some bad decisions.
 

At least part of what plays out though is that having such a large and unionised sector, combined with human nature - people (staff) will always generally just be discontent and aggrieved at their superiors. That’s life! The difference is the scale and the fact that it ultimately plays out in the political arena and is intertwined with children’s development which brings another massive amount of stakeholders opinions into the mix. 

Edited May 19, 2021 by AlfieMoon

[Lamia]

18 hours ago, scotlad said:

 

To be honest, anyone who gets the Health gig has my sympathies; next to education it has to be the hardest job in the cabinet.

You can't win in either of those jobs

[Lamia]

17 hours ago, aaid said:

For Education, again it's a massive department and one with a lot of problems.  I think there's an element of looking around and seeing who would actually be able to take it on.   Probably needs to be someone already in the cabinet, not really a role to appoint a junior minister straight into.   

 

Surely there were more capable people of being in the cabinet in then first place. It baffles me how she had a position.

[aaid]

14 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Surely there were more capable people of being in the cabinet in then first place. It baffles me how she had a position.

Care to suggest someone? 

I think that's what scuppered them to an extent are the MSPs who have retired.  A number of those were "understandable" due to their age but more concerning are the younger ones that have left what could be considered too early.   I'm thinking here of Aileen Campbell specifically who could realistically have been able to take on either the Health or Education brief and to an extent -  the man who cannot be mentioned -  Dodgy Derek.

The SNP currently has 64 MSPs, there are 10 cabinet secretaries below that there are 15 ministers, so that's 40% of your MSPs gone already.   

There are 18 MSPs that have just been elected to Parliament.  The bulk of those will be struggling to get to grips right now with being an MSP let alone being in government.  There are a couple of exceptions, Angus Robertson who is obviously an experienced parliamentarian and to use a Westminster term I hate, a big beast and Mairi McAllan who was previously a special advisor to Nicola Sturgeon and clearly is being fast tracked.

That leaves you with 23 MSPs, most of whom would not be considered for a variety of reasons -they're not interested, they're not good enough, there's some history and baggage associated with them or they're John Mason.

Go through them and tell me who you think should either be in the cabinet or government - there's a few you'd consider for a ministerial role but no-one who should be in the cabinet.  

Within the junior ministerial team, remember that Kate Forbes only recently stepped up and Marie Gougeon has just been promoted, again there's a few you could see stepping up during this parliament but probably not right now.
 

[aaid]

10 hours ago, TDYER63 said:

I never considered the impending  OECD report, just one of 2,745,785 reasons why I am not FM. You are right, the contents could force him out so best to pre empt it.   
 

I thought aaid was hinting that she would be focusing on another referendum . I read too much into things sometimes 😊
 

That was what I was hinting at.

[aaid]

10 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I dont know much about M Gougeon for rural affairs, is she capable enough? 

Always struck me as being quietly effective.  Time will tell but she was previously a junior minister in the department and so knows the brief.

[hampden_loon2878]

4 hours ago, aaid said:

Always struck me as being quietly effective.  Time will tell but she was previously a junior minister in the department and so knows the brief.

Hope so, as i said Ewing was a massive disappointment, lochead in hindsight was actually not bad but got a lot of stick from various quarters. 

[Lamia]

7 hours ago, aaid said:

Care to suggest someone? 


 

I don't know all the SNP MSPs to be able to answer but to be honest probably almost any of them would be better than her.

[Jim Beem]

Some of these appointments don't exactly scream 'full speed ahead for independence'. 

[aaid]

1 hour ago, Jim Beem said:

Some of these appointments don't exactly scream 'full speed ahead for independence'. 

What appointments would scream "full speed ahead for independence"? 

Lets not forget that it was made 100% clear before the election that the brakes are on until the COVID crisis is over.

[Jim Beem]

9 minutes ago, aaid said:

What appointments would scream "full speed ahead for independence"? 

Lets not forget that it was made 100% clear before the election that the brakes are on until the COVID crisis is over.

😂😂 Your awfy twitchy about the SNP. 

I would say anyone that doesnt reek of a 100% careerist would be good. 

[Freeedom]

30 minutes ago, Jim Beem said:

😂😂 Your awfy twitchy about the SNP. 

I would say anyone that doesnt reek of a 100% careerist would be good. 

None scream full steam ahead for independence because that's not what the party is about any more. 

[hampden_loon2878]

1 hour ago, Freeedom said:

None scream full steam ahead for independence because that's not what the party is about any more. 

Unfortunately you are right

[Caledonian Craig]

The full ahead to independence approach is off-putting to many that the Yes movement will need to convince to vote Yes in IndyRef2.

I'd say we have around 35 to 40% who will vote yes - pretty much guaranteed. They would love the full ahead at top speed approach as would I but that is not going to win IndyRef2.

The key group are the waiverers/don't knows which I'd say is around 20% of people. Those are the people the Yes movement need to convince to vote Yes. And their caution is one which goes hand in hand with the slow approach to IndyRef2. They will be more likely to vote Yes if they see that those in power backing independence are acting responsibly about the pandemic. Think about it. Think about the free ammunition Better Together2 will be given if the Yes movement/SNP were to be pushing right now for IndyRef2 with the pandemic still in the forefront. Jeez it would be manner from heaven for the unionists. They'd play it like Yehudi Menuhin playing a violin and those waiverers/don't knows would be far more likely to fall for it and vote No and IndyRef2 would then be lost.