ceudmilefailte Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Just now, Orraloon said: And yet most folk seemed happy enough for McLeish to be sacked on the back of one bad result. I would say it was more the fact he presided over our worst two performances ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, mrniaboc said: It's a little biased to remove the bottom seeds and not do the same for the top seeds when talking about points we are sensibly meant to be able to win. It would be interesting to compare our home stats in the last few years to the away stats of Bulgaria, Romania, Israel, Hungary, Serbia, and Norway. Just wish I had the time to pull all those stats! Are you just going to keep compiling different sets of stats until find some that agree with your opinion? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 5 minutes ago, AndyDD said: I'd not be sacking Clarke under those circumstances, but you're kidding yourself if you don't think his position won't be brought into question in such a scenario. Of course it will. My hope is that he stays the course and Maxwell is strong enough to retain him regardless of this questioning and scrutiny. Having a blanket rule of giving 8 years, though, is a bit silly. Two campaigns would be more reasonable, but if we make a bad appointment and stick to it out of bloody mindedness when there are better options available we would be making a mistake. It was a mistake to get rid of Strachan in my view, but not a mistake to get rid of Levein. A hard and fast rule is going to tie your hands and I think a balance can be achieved between giving a reasonable crack at the whip to grow something and refusing to remove someone until they have had 4 campaigns, even if the fans and many players have chucked it. Even if it is obvious that the ship is sinking and won't refloat itself. Had we not swapped out Strachan for Mcleish I do wonder where we'd be. On the flipside I wonder if Strachan could have gotten us over the line had he been brought in to replace Levein at an earlier juncture. Or where we would be if Clarke had been appointed instead of McLeish. Yeah, sadly it will be brought into question. I'm saying I don't think it should be. It's become a conveyor belt. It's like, have a go for 1 campaign/1 and a half campaigns, then NEXT! That is a big part of the problem. The players then have to reset and learn a new set of practices, set of ideas and aims, set of tactics and playing styles. When we have the best available person for the job in place, like Strachan was, like Clarke is, then it's far more productive to give that person time, than to let them be hounded out after one poor result or one unsuccessful campaign. We are a third or fourth seeded team now, depending on the qualification structure, and our recent results. To hound out managers for failing to qualify in one campaign, and finishing in their seeded position, is ludicrous. They have to be given time, and by time I mean several campaigns, to show whether they can make a difference. I can't think of any Scotland manager who has finished below their seeded position, but there probably are one or two in there? That kind of sums up that our fans' expectations are too high - as with all football teams. Fans have too much power and means to put pressure on a manager nowadays, with social media, forums, phone-ins, etc, etc. (Arsenal Fan TV being the most famous and vomit-inducing example that springs to mind.) Sadly, we as fans are not in general knowledgeable enough to be making these kind of demands and decisions. Also our expectations are usually too high for us to make reasonable, impartial judgements on the matter as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Are you just going to keep compiling different sets of stats until find some that agree with your opinion? Hahaha, I just like data. I don't think my opinion is too disagreeable though. I think we probably won't qualify, but this represents one of the best chances we will get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 14 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said: Nah, it's just you grammar is too good Pretty impressive if this was 15 years in the making, he did join in 2005. Thank you. I'm mortified that someone has suggested that I'm the same person as Mr '0.002%' from the other day. I have a degree in maths. And a brain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceudmilefailte Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Just now, dohadeer said: Thank you. I'm mortified that someone has suggested that I'm the same person as Mr '0.002%' from the other day. I have a degree in maths. And a brain. And you missed my deliberate grammar mistake there, so your ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 4 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said: And you missed my deliberate grammar mistake there, so your ok Nailed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 7 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Thank you. I'm mortified that someone has suggested that I'm the same person as Mr '0.002%' from the other day. I have a degree in maths. And a brain. Ha! I imagine that must have been particularly frustrating for you then? I know how you feel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyDD Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 9 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Yeah, sadly it will be brought into question. I'm saying I don't think it should be. It's become a conveyor belt. It's like, have a go for 1 campaign/1 and a half campaigns, then NEXT! That is a big part of the problem. The players then have to reset and learn a new set of practices, set of ideas and aims, set of tactics and playing styles. When we have the best available person for the job in place, like Strachan was, like Clarke is, then it's far more productive to give that person time, than to let them be hounded out after one poor result or one unsuccessful campaign. We are a third or fourth seeded team now, depending on the qualification structure, and our recent results. To hound out managers for failing to qualify in one campaign, and finishing in their seeded position, is ludicrous. They have to be given time, and by time I mean several campaigns, to show whether they can make a difference. I can't think of any Scotland manager who has finished below their seeded position, but there probably are one or two in there? That kind of sums up that our fans' expectations are too high - as with all football teams. Fans have too much power and means to put pressure on a manager nowadays, with social media, forums, phone-ins, etc, etc. (Arsenal Fan TV being the most famous and vomit-inducing example that springs to mind.) Sadly, we as fans are not in general knowledgeable enough to be making these kind of demands and decisions. Also our expectations are usually too high for us to make reasonable, impartial judgements on the matter as well. So long as they don't actually give him the bullet, I can live with the press and some fans doing their usual. C'est la vie. I share your general frustration with the chopping and changing but I still don't think we should be tying ourselves to every manager for at least 4 campaigns come hell or high water. The water would get very high indeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 (edited) 31 minutes ago, mrniaboc said: It's a little biased to remove the bottom seeds and not do the same for the top seeds when talking about points we are sensibly meant to be able to win. It would be interesting to compare our home stats in the last few years to the away stats of Bulgaria, Romania, Israel, Hungary, Serbia, and Norway. Just wish I had the time to pull all those stats! I didn't remove bottom seeds, I only removed teams that pretty much never gain a point, let alone an away point. I don't think that you can compare the chances of winning at home to a big team, to the chances of slipping up against Liechtenstein/Gibraltar/Malta/San Marino at home. If we remove wins against 'big teams' as well, we have 7 wins from 14 matches in the last 10 years. Six one-goal wins and the two-goal win from the other night. Sadly, that list includes Lithuania, Georgia, Cyprus and Kazakhstan, so I'd argue that it's only 3 wins against the level of teams that we may face in the playoffs. Plus one against Croatia, who are above that level. Again, as you said earlier, we have a good chance. We don't have a good home record though, but home advantage is so big, that you're correct, our home record will still probably be better than most teams' away records. Edited November 21, 2019 by dohadeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 22 minutes ago, mrniaboc said: Hahaha, I just like data. I don't think my opinion is too disagreeable though. I think we probably won't qualify, but this represents one of the best chances we will get. I am in 99.9% agreement with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 16 minutes ago, dohadeer said: I didn't remove bottom seeds, I only removed teams that pretty much never gain a point, let alone an away point. I don't think that you can compare the chances of winning at home to a big team, to the chances of slipping up against Liechtenstein/Gibraltar/Malta/San Marino at home. If we remove wins against 'big teams' as well, we have 7 wins from 14 matches in the last 10 years. Six one-goal wins and the two-goal win from the other night. Sadly, that list includes Lithuania, Georgia, Cyprus and Kazakhstan, so I'd argue that it's only 3 wins against the level of teams that we may face in the playoffs. Plus one against Croatia, who are above that level. Again, as you said earlier, we have a good chance. We don't have a good home record though, but home advantage is so big, that you're correct, our home record will still probably be better than most teams' away records. Done a quick check on this now, as an example, out of interest. Serbia's ten-year away qualification record, removing results against 'big teams' and 'diddy teams' is: Won 9, drawn 4, lost 5. Our home record for comparable matches is: Won 7, drawn 5, lost 2. Shows how bad we are, when our home record is pretty much the same as Serbia's away record. (Serbia being by no means a 'big team' or top seed, who qualify every time!) Both have 50% wins, we've managed to get a few extra draws, rather than defeats. This would suggest that it would be close to a 50/50 game if we were at home, but it also shows the separate issue of how bad our home record is, when other non-big teams are matching it with their away records! I'll look at Norway, and possibly Romania and Hungary later, when I have time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCTA Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 hour ago, dohadeer said: I'm guessing that you're suggesting I'm another poster? I've only ever had this account, and I've had it for about 15 years. I'm assuming I've given a similar viewpoint to someone else, is that what you're saying? Just coincidence I'm afraid, sorry to disappoint you. Nah, I was just having a wee joke. It was only because of your bible-like length of post which seems to be a trait of Chripper. 😄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, WCTA said: Nah, I was just having a wee joke. It was only because of your bible-like length of post which seems to be a trait of Chripper. 😄 Is Chripper the previously-banned poster who has returned as The Dark Knight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WCTA Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 3 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Is Chripper the previously-banned poster who has returned as The Dark Knight? Aye Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 25 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Done a quick check on this now, as an example, out of interest. Serbia's ten-year away qualification record, removing results against 'big teams' and 'diddy teams' is: Won 9, drawn 4, lost 5. Our home record for comparable matches is: Won 7, drawn 5, lost 2. Shows how bad we are, when our home record is pretty much the same as Serbia's away record. (Serbia being by no means a 'big team' or top seed, who qualify every time!) Both have 50% wins, we've managed to get a few extra draws, rather than defeats. This would suggest that it would be close to a 50/50 game if we were at home, but it also shows the separate issue of how bad our home record is, when other non-big teams are matching it with their away records! I'll look at Norway, and possibly Romania and Hungary later, when I have time. Good work. Maybe just slightly in our favour at Hampden there, but not by much! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bino's Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 18 hours ago, dohadeer said: Ok, I think I understand now..... IF we had taken full points against the bottom two seeds, on top of any other points we actually accumulated in other matches, we would have at least reached the playoffs. Researching this now makes for several unbelievable statistics! Firstly, in the 11 qualifying campaigns since 1998, when we last qualified, we have only taken a maximum 12 points against the bottom two seeds in our group on one occasion. Now, international football is tricky, and I certainly wouldn't expect us to always beat the bottom two seeds, especially away. Some of the bottom two seeds we have faced in that time have been teams who turned out to be very good. However, I'd expect us to take the maximum 12 points more than once in 11 campaigns! That is a horrific performance. The only manager who achieved the feat was Craig Brown, in the qualifying campaign for World Cup 2002. The campaign was still unsuccessful though, and we didn't even reach the playoffs. Vogts, Smith, McLeish during both his tenures, Burley, Levein and Strachan all suffered not only slip-ups against at least one of the bottom two seeds in the group, but amazingly they've all suffered defeats against at least one of the bottom two seeds! Next amazing stat is that, these results against the bottom two seeds made a difference to whether we failed to qualify/made the playoffs/qualified automatically on SEVEN occasions out of the 9 relevant qualifying groups where we slipped up against the bottom teams. Amazingly, if we had won all games against the bottom two seeds, and we added those results to our actual results in the other group games, instead of only having two playoffs to show for those 9 qualifying campaigns in question, we'd have 6 playoffs and 2 automatic qualifications! Unbelievable, and I'm not sure why this hasn't been more widely spoken about! Absolutely Great stats It's abysmal and probably unique Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bino's Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Also, the qualifying for 2002 was 18 years ago In other words it's been a generation since we have taken all points off the bottom 2 seeds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 8 hours ago, mrniaboc said: Good work. Maybe just slightly in our favour at Hampden there, but not by much! Further to my earlier partial analysis....... (I don't believe this data to be very relevant at all, in terms of our playoff, as it doesn't relate to single-leg ties, where one team has home advantage. However, others have mentioned this, and I find it interesting nonetheless.) Scotland's ten-year record (last 5 campaigns) for home World Cup and European qualifieres, excluding ties against 'big' teams and 'diddy' teams: Won 7, drawn 5, lost 2. Our potential playoff opponents' away records, for comparable type of matches: Serbia: Won 9, drawn 4, lost 5. Norway: Won 6, drawn 4, lost 6. Romania: Won 8, drawn 8, lost 4. Israel: Won 7, drawn 3, lost 7. Hungary: Won 6, drawn 4, lost 6. Bulgaria: Won 2, drawn 6, lost 6. So, Serbia have the strongest record, followed by Romania, who also have a strong positive record. Israel are next, who have a neutral record, along with Hungary and Norway. Bulgaria are the only team with a negative record, and a very negative one at that. Surprisingly, before this campaign, it was Israel who had the strongest record, with a ridiculously strong 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats. However, they lost 4 times out of 5, away from home this time round, to fall back into the pack. (For interest/comparison/to show how bad we are........ our 10-year away record for similar types of matches is won 3, drawn 4, lost 7, which only just puts us ahead of Bulgaria out of the teams mentioned.) Will check Norway and Serbia's ten-year home records now, (and the other mentioned teams out of interest), to compare how bad we are, and help decipher how bad our chances are if we are given a potential away playoff final tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dohadeer Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 (edited) 17 minutes ago, dohadeer said: Further to my earlier partial analysis....... (I don't believe this data to be very relevant at all, in terms of our playoff, as it doesn't relate to single-leg ties, where one team has home advantage. However, others have mentioned this, and I find it interesting nonetheless.) Scotland's ten-year record (last 5 campaigns) for home World Cup and European qualifieres, excluding ties against 'big' teams and 'diddy' teams: Won 7, drawn 5, lost 2. Our potential playoff opponents' away records, for comparable type of matches: Serbia: Won 9, drawn 4, lost 5. Norway: Won 6, drawn 4, lost 6. Romania: Won 8, drawn 8, lost 4. Israel: Won 7, drawn 3, lost 7. Hungary: Won 6, drawn 4, lost 6. Bulgaria: Won 2, drawn 6, lost 6. So, Serbia have the strongest record, followed by Romania, who also have a strong positive record. Israel are next, who have a neutral record, along with Hungary and Norway. Bulgaria are the only team with a negative record, and a very negative one at that. Surprisingly, before this campaign, it was Israel who had the strongest record, with a ridiculously strong 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats. However, they lost 4 times out of 5, away from home this time round, to fall back into the pack. (For interest/comparison/to show how bad we are........ our 10-year away record for similar types of matches is won 3, drawn 4, lost 7, which only just puts us ahead of Bulgaria out of the teams mentioned.) Will check Norway and Serbia's ten-year home records now, (and the other mentioned teams out of interest), to compare how bad we are, and help decipher how bad our chances are if we are given a potential away playoff final tomorrow. So, Serbia at home are: Won 11, drawn 4, lost 3 and Norway's record is: Won 8, drawn 6, lost 2. Our home record is similar to most of the other potential teams in our playoff path, so what I've learned this week is that we are let down by our away record, nearly always losing at home to 'big' teams, and dropping points against the bottom two seeds in the group. I'm actually really surprised that it's our away record that lets us down, because we have been such an obvious 4-5-1 team for so long now, with loads of quality midfielders. I think of us as much worse as a home team because we lack any decent creative players and goalscorers, who can go out and get us the wins. I suppose it shows that the lack of decent defenders is hurting us more away from home, our midfielders are definitely still more suited to the 4-5-1 counter-attacking away football than they are to having to come out and attack in home games. Our midfielders have been so often from smaller English Premier clubs recently, (Armstrong, Fleck, McArthur, McGinn, McLean, Morrison, Ritchie, Snodgrass, etc, etc) that they are used to the strategy and mentality of having to dig in and grind out results on the counter attack as underdogs. Also, Israel's away record is better than their home record! Edited November 22, 2019 by dohadeer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrniaboc Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, dohadeer said: So, Serbia at home are: Won 11, drawn 4, lost 3 and Norway's record is: Won 8, drawn 6, lost 2. Our home record is similar to most of the other potential teams in our playoff path, so what I've learned this week is that we are let down by our away record, nearly always losing at home to 'big' teams, and dropping points against the bottom two seeds in the group. I'm actually really surprised that it's our away record that lets us down, because we have been such an obvious 4-5-1 team for so long now, with loads of quality midfielders. I think of us as much worse as a home team because we lack any decent creative players and goalscorers, who can go out and get us the wins. I suppose it shows that the lack of decent defenders is hurting us more away from home, our midfielders are definitely still more suited to the 4-5-1 counter-attacking away football than they are to having to come out and attack in home games. Our midfielders have been so often from smaller English Premier clubs recently, (Armstrong, Fleck, McArthur, McGinn, McLean, Morrison, Ritchie, Snodgrass, etc, etc) that they are used to the strategy and mentality of having to dig in and grind out results on the counter attack as underdogs. Also, Israel's away record is better than their home record! Good stuff dude! So what we're saying is please please please give us a home draw today UEFA! Please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyDD Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 7 hours ago, mrniaboc said: Good stuff dude! So what we're saying is please please please give us a home draw today UEFA! Please. Not just for our chances of winning, the logistical nightmare of trying to get to whatever the away venue would be after the semi would be of epic proportions! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 19 hours ago, Orraloon said: And yet most folk seemed happy enough for McLeish to be sacked on the back of one bad result. One bad result?!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 hours ago, Squirrelhumper said: One bad result?!!! Aye, we got humped by Kazakhstan and he got sacked. He had a 67% win rate at the time. Clarke will never achieve that level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyDD Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 7 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Aye, we got humped by Kazakhstan and he got sacked. He had a 67% win rate at the time. Clarke will never achieve that level. Win these two playoffs and he'll be on 60% already. Big ask, mind you. Also, let's be realistic here; Mcleish the second time around was not the same manager as Mcleish the first time around. Night and day. Mcleish second time around had a 41% win rate. 12 games, 5 wins, 7 defeats. Clarke sitting on 50% right now. We've no had a draw in a wee while now, eh? Penalties in the playoffs confirmed... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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