Rossy Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 (edited) No point thinking about another referendum until what caused us to lose the first one can be overcome I dont know how often that has to be said Lose a second referendum and you might as well switch off the lights and lock up How hard is it for some folk, especially those as intelligent as McAlpine, to grasp that This. Exactly. Another referendum within the next 2 or 3 years is guaranteed to end in the same result, and that would be the end of the independence dream for a lifetime. There can only be another referendum when we're rock-solid, guaranteed to win. And for that to happen the Yes campaign need to come up with a better currency and economic plan than the half-arsed one they tried to sell a year ago. I'd despair if the SNP include another referendum promise in their manifesto. Edited August 12, 2015 by Rossy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 the bulk of the No voters I talked to were voting no because they hated Salmond and that he wanted to be President ... I think that was a handy excuse for many. They'll find another next time too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 (edited) the real elephant in the room is the length of the next SCOTTISH parliament 3 or five years, as far as i know this hasnt been decided yet. Due to Westminster having a fixed parliament now, we need to change ours. Scottish Parliament (snp) get to decide this. A three year one, gives SNP a get out clause..no time... . then another election in 2019 with a guaranteed Indy ref commitment for 2023/24 SNP win again in 2019, the Tories will win again in 2020 in England, SNP do Well at westminster. Ref in 2023... who will defend the Union.....? 15 years of tory rule... Boris /Osborne/an other in charge.......... We will have Nicola/Mhari/ etc etc the demographics,( ie over 70's deid, under 16's voting et) c..... is all on YES side.. Then we go for it... Indy by 2025.... before then is too soon In my Opinion... Edited August 12, 2015 by stocky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAteAllThePies Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Thing is, the SNP have the best PR and tactical machine in Politics. There wont be a second referendum until polls show a consistant "Yes" victory. We all know that. This first one "normalised" it and built a base. When the time comes and the polls do show a yes victory over and over again, even if something obvious doesn't happen we all know that with the SNP's politiking skills a reason will be engineered, or a non issue made massive. I'm not concerned they aren't pushing it just now and I still believe in my new mantra; "Independence is closer today that it was on the 18th September." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 It's a bit of a catch 22 though. If Yes is comfortably ahead in the polls it'll be much harder to get Westminster to legislate for a referendum than previously (see Catalunya)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParisInAKilt Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Doubt we'll ever have a better chance with the SNP popular and a Tory majority in place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 Doubt we'll ever have a better chance with the SNP popular and a Tory majority in place. that will still be the same situation in 5 years ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParisInAKilt Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 that will still be the same situation in 5 years ...... Not so sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 that will still be the same situation in 5 years ...... I think the popularity of the SNP is slowly starting to wane. Scunnered's constant whinging is starting to have an effect on some folk.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted August 12, 2015 Share Posted August 12, 2015 I think the popularity of the SNP is slowly starting to wane. Scunnered's constant whinging is starting to have an effect on some folk.. About God damn time! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave78 Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I'm not concerned they aren't pushing it just now and I still believe in my new mantra; "Independence is closer today that it was on the 18th September." Spot on. The movement towards independence has always been like a tide. Those on the gradualist side of the SNP have always realised this. We all hoped that the late-arriving tide would be enough to get us over the 50% mark last year, but we fell just short. Now is the time to listen and learn for next time. It's tempting to see the SNP landslides and full spectrum dominance (ooh, i just adapted a military term to apply to politics - how very New Labour of me) of Scottish politics to think now is the time to press for another Indyref, but it's just not there yet. It's a bit of a catch 22 though. If Yes is comfortably ahead in the polls it'll be much harder to get Westminster to legislate for a referendum than previously (see Catalunya)... Yep. In 10/15 years when another referendum is winnable, how do the SNP force Westminster to make the referendum legal, and therefore not able to be boycotted and invalidated by the nawbags? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jockodile Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 The Westminster section 30 will be tricky, but the Genie is out the bottle. Its happened before so precedent exists, if it is refused, thats when a UDI strategy is required. Cross that bridge when we get to it. Ultimately think Westminster would transfer S30, but demand no more refs for 20yrs etc or the like Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I think the popularity of the SNP is slowly starting to wane. Yep, they only got 62% in the poll this week. The SNP's popularity isn't really down to the SNP though is it? Mostly it's a vehicle for Yes voters and so should be more solid than usual party support. Same poll showed fairly average satisfaction ratings with their performance in government. Give it ten years and enough old No voters should be dead so we can go again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Unless Sturgeon does something radical and remarkable, there's no way SNP support will stay this high. She can't expect to continue treading water like she has and hope nothing will change. That's the kind of arrogance that killed Scottish Labour, and it makes the assumption Scottish Labour wont rise from the dead unexpectedly. The biggest problem the SNP and Yes have is complacency, and assuming the SNP will still be riding high in 5 years is the worst kind of complacency. I have more faith that the Tories will still be in power in five years than the SNP will still be enjoying such widespread support. Sturgeon needs to do something special in the next five years IMO. That said, independence is inevitable - it's just a question of whether the SNP can help deliver it in the next 5/10 years or whether it's be 20 years from now. British identity is dead or dying. The younger generations are Scottish or English rather than British, and it's almost impossible to reverse that trend. Coupled with an ever looser Union, it's only a matter of time. The question for the SNP is how they can accelerate that process without sabotaging it. Like not having a referendum in the next 2/3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 About God damn time! I was being sarcastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekevie04 Posted August 13, 2015 Author Share Posted August 13, 2015 Unless Sturgeon does something radical and remarkable, there's no way SNP support will stay this high. She can't expect to continue treading water like she has and hope nothing will change. That's the kind of arrogance that killed Scottish Labour, and it makes the assumption Scottish Labour wont rise from the dead unexpectedly. The biggest problem the SNP and Yes have is complacency, and assuming the SNP will still be riding high in 5 years is the worst kind of complacency. I have more faith that the Tories will still be in power in five years than the SNP will still be enjoying such widespread support. Sturgeon needs to do something special in the next five years IMO. That said, independence is inevitable - it's just a question of whether the SNP can help deliver it in the next 5/10 years or whether it's be 20 years from now. British identity is dead or dying. The younger generations are Scottish or English rather than British, and it's almost impossible to reverse that trend. Coupled with an ever looser Union, it's only a matter of time. The question for the SNP is how they can accelerate that process without sabotaging it. Like not having a referendum in the next 2/3 years. Spot on. I think waiting til Independence is 60%+ is a disaster of an idea disaster before going again. I'm not wishing a referendum now, next year or 2018, but predicting politics is a difficult case. I also don't believe we'll ever see opinion polls showing consistent 60% support for independence for a long time, possibly 10 or more years, and by then the horse may have bolted. The SNP are only popular because the other parties are so poor. If the Labour party were anything but the shambles they are at present, things would be very much different. I wasn't around in 1974, but the SNP on 30%, I bet many back then thought independence was inevitable. Agree that having an Indyref2 and losing so soon would be stupid, but there has to be a balance, and I hope the SNP HQ aren't as naive to think about 10-15 years plans for the next one. We also have to look at the issues of why we lost in detail. For the next years get on with doing a hopefully decent job of governing, whilst bit by bit pushing the Indy cause. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 The Westminster section 30 will be tricky, but the Genie is out the bottle. Its happened before so precedent exists, if it is refused, thats when a UDI strategy is required. Cross that bridge when we get to it. Ultimately think Westminster would transfer S30, but demand no more refs for 20yrs etc or the like Even Ruth Davidson has conceded that any attempt by Westminster to block a second referendum that had a democratic mandate would mean that the game would be a bogey for the Union. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 Unless Sturgeon does something radical and remarkable, there's no way SNP support will stay this high. She can't expect to continue treading water like she has and hope nothing will change. That's the kind of arrogance that killed Scottish Labour, and it makes the assumption Scottish Labour wont rise from the dead unexpectedly. The biggest problem the SNP and Yes have is complacency, and assuming the SNP will still be riding high in 5 years is the worst kind of complacency. I have more faith that the Tories will still be in power in five years than the SNP will still be enjoying such widespread support. Sturgeon needs to do something special in the next five years IMO. That said, independence is inevitable - it's just a question of whether the SNP can help deliver it in the next 5/10 years or whether it's be 20 years from now. British identity is dead or dying. The younger generations are Scottish or English rather than British, and it's almost impossible to reverse that trend. Coupled with an ever looser Union, it's only a matter of time. The question for the SNP is how they can accelerate that process without sabotaging it. Like not having a referendum in the next 2/3 years. i also think the Tories will be in for 2020-2025 and even longer. up to 2030 depressing..... Sturgeon will win in 2019, and hopefully the Greens and perhaps another Indy party will also be dong well. SNP will not sustain 50% plus in polls, but as long as pro indy parties do it is fine. Sturgeon will be radical I think between now at 2020, as no referendum, Land Reform needs addressed, proper land reform including poll tax etc.... i hope they do that. i also would like to see local govt reform, smaller councils and more local accountability.. This is the time to be radical, get the Scotland we want Also never underestimate the power of the British establishment... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 i also think the Tories will be in for 2020-2025 and even longer. up to 2030 depressing..... Sturgeon will win in 2019, and hopefully the Greens and perhaps another Indy party will also be dong well. SNP will not sustain 50% plus in polls, but as long as pro indy parties do it is fine. Sturgeon will be radical I think between now at 2020, as no referendum, Land Reform needs addressed, proper land reform including poll tax etc.... i hope they do that. i also would like to see local govt reform, smaller councils and more local accountability.. This is the time to be radical, get the Scotland we want Also never underestimate the power of the British establishment... ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I think that the key to independence now lies with Scottish Labour jumping on the independence bandwagon. It's only a question of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 ? sorry Charlie. i meant council tax...... this needs reformed, it is a 1990's solution to a 1980's problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 I think that the key to independence now lies with Scottish Labour jumping on the independence bandwagon. It's only a question of time. cant see Scottish Labour in its current form EVER doing this.... Anyone who wanted that has now left the party... there is only Unionists left I am afraid. a new type of Labour party in Scotland perhaps.. but not the current one.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 cant see Scottish Labour in its current form EVER doing this.... Anyone who wanted that has now left the party... there is only Unionists left I am afraid. a new type of Labour party in Scotland perhaps.. but not the current one.... Give some of them time. Im pretty sure Kezia Dugdale has indicated members will get to debate/choose Scottish Labour's support ahead of any future referendum. It will click with many of them some time that it's a major barrier for them being on the wrong side of momentum (and being perpetually unelectable south of the border). All it needs is for the seeds to take hold and Scottish Labour will start to turn like the rest of the country. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 there is only Unionists left I am afraid. No there's not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacWalka Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 i also think the Tories will be in for 2020-2025 and even longer. up to 2030 depressing..... Sturgeon will win in 2019, and hopefully the Greens and perhaps another Indy party will also be dong well. SNP will not sustain 50% plus in polls, but as long as pro indy parties do it is fine. Sturgeon will be radical I think between now at 2020, as no referendum, Land Reform needs addressed, proper land reform including poll tax etc.... i hope they do that. i also would like to see local govt reform, smaller councils and more local accountability.. This is the time to be radical, get the Scotland we want Also never underestimate the power of the British establishment... Going by the SNP past performance, I doubt the bolded part is going to happen any time soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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