Referendum Odds - Page 7 - Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere - Tartan Army Message Board Jump to content

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No sorry there's been 15 million pounds bet on the outcome of which 13 million of that's on No,2 million on Yes,the interesting thing though is that about 2 million of that money on No has come in the last two hours.

Why would anyone even be betting on No - it's just a terrible value bet in a two-outcome situation. Don't understand it at all.

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Hard to see him staying on if it's a No win.

To be honest, if it's No, I think SNP should resign from Government and pass parliament over to No parties. It's about time people people see what they're voting for and it would enable the No parties to fast track these promises they've been making.

I agree

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Which makes sense... but people are still lumping on No?!

Some people like "buying money" on Betfair. But think of it this way - the punters who backed No at 1.4 could be the ones laying No at 1.2 to cover their liabilities. The punters who took their 1.2 lays could be in turn laying at 1.1 to cover THEIR liabilities. The ones backing at 1.1 must think its buying money. There will also be a lot of big punters just trading between the back and lay price with no firm opinion of what the outcome will be, just that its a very liquid market and they can grab a bit of free cash by playing both sides. That all adds to the money matched total. A % of it could quite easily be traders churning between the back and lay.

If it's 13m on no and 2m on yes then their book is pretty much balanced and if anything they need money on yes - hence the odds

The "book" doesn't have to be balanced on Betfair Exchange, where this money is. Exchange is punter v punter, Betfair take a commission off winning bets but don't care what the outcome is. Don't confuse with Betfair Sportsbook (the bookie who paid out earlier this week) who do actually have to try to balance their books as per a Ladbrokes, Hills etc. There its bookie v punter.

Edited by Dalgety Bay TA
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