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I might not be 100% accurate but to me it implies what the bookies think the yes percentage will be and then you take the position of it being over or under that; usually at odds of just under evens.

It moving towards 50 is a good thing. I'm sure the market started out at 40 or less.

Then again it could just mean people are lumping on it being over and they are adjusting their position accordingly.

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This is perhaps one of the most confusing thing, for me at least, being an expat.

I see folk on here so confident of a 50+ result on the 18th, and then I look at the odds and articles in the papers which talk about a Yes vote being extremely unlikely. I know on this board we sometimes go a little over the top with things, but are folk that confident, and are they seeing things which the betting companies and journalists arent?

Ive given up on the polls to be honest. I did an analysis of the16-24 year old polls in Survation, and came to the conclusion that it was simply all over the place. One week there would be a 51% Yes indication, the next it would be 55% No. Not surprising since they were always up weighted by at least a factor of two.

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Right i don't bet, however i have managed to secure a few bets for £20 that No will not get 10% more votes than yes. so as long as no dont poll more than 55% i win £20.

These seems like decent bets to me, hence why i took them, is that correct or not in peoples opinions?

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This is perhaps one of the most confusing thing, for me at least, being an expat.

I see folk on here so confident of a 50+ result on the 18th, and then I look at the odds and articles in the papers which talk about a Yes vote being extremely unlikely. I know on this board we sometimes go a little over the top with things, but are folk that confident, and are they seeing things which the betting companies and journalists arent?

Ive given up on the polls to be honest. I did an analysis of the16-24 year old polls in Survation, and came to the conclusion that it was simply all over the place. One week there would be a 51% Yes indication, the next it would be 55% No. Not surprising since they were always up weighted by at least a factor of two.

Remember the ODDS quoted by the bookies include money placed in Engerland, therefore not a true reflection of what is happening in scotland!

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This is perhaps one of the most confusing thing, for me at least, being an expat.

I see folk on here so confident of a 50+ result on the 18th, and then I look at the odds and articles in the papers which talk about a Yes vote being extremely unlikely. I know on this board we sometimes go a little over the top with things, but are folk that confident, and are they seeing things which the betting companies and journalists arent?

Ive given up on the polls to be honest. I did an analysis of the16-24 year old polls in Survation, and came to the conclusion that it was simply all over the place. One week there would be a 51% Yes indication, the next it would be 55% No. Not surprising since they were always up weighted by at least a factor of two.

The bookies know football and racing and sports inside out. What's their track records on Scottish Independence Referendums?

They'll be making their judgements based on (amongst other things) the published polls and where the money is being placed.

But there are many of us who believe that the polls are not reflecting what is actually happening in Scotland.

I will be absolutely gobsmacked if the No vote is anywhere near the percentage that the polls are predicting.

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The bookies know football and racing and sports inside out. What's their track records on Scottish Independence Referendums?

They'll be making their judgements based on (amongst other things) the published polls and where the money is being placed.

But there are many of us who believe that the polls are not reflecting what is actually happening in Scotland.

I will be absolutely gobsmacked if the No vote is anywhere near the percentage that the polls are predicting.

Very good point. Bookies have reams and reams of historical data to base their football/racing/sports betting prices on, as well as what they see on the pitch week in week out. Even for general elections or Scottish elections, they have historical data on turnouts, margins of victory and again what the general mood of the population is in relation to the parties involved.

There is no real data here bar the opinion polls (from smallish sources?) and as you said, from the flow of money.

As a slight side issue, in terms of opinion polls etc I was on FB last week and saw the Nae Danger energy drink had posted the question on their page after last weeks debate, yes or no and asked its "Likers" to post their comments.

Now obviously Nae Danger energy drink probably has a certain demograph that it appeals to and who are likely to "like" it on FB, and that section of people are probably not a fair representation of the Scottish voting public. However they do have 35,000 Likes and, when I last looked, they had over 1,700 people responding to this FB post. I scrolled few quite a lot of the replies, in fact a very lot. From a rough estimate the percentage saying Yes was, IMO, anywhere between 90-95%. There were pages and pages of Yes replies with only the odd No here or there, usually one in every 15-20 replies or less at times. End of the day its still an opinion poll and it had quite a high number of responders. Just shows that if you ask certain people a question you can get widely varying results depending on who you are asking.

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