3Rd Place

[Orraloon]

Looking at all the 6 team groups from the last 3 campaigns only once out of 22 groups has a team needed 21 points to finish second (Ukraine for WC2010).

The average points total for 3rd place was 15.8

In other words we'd be very unlucky to need that many points for 2nd....

Aye, but this group has two pretty shit bottom teams that the 2nd place team will be expected to get 12 points off. Ireland and Poland have already got 3 points off Georgia away from home. We will need to do the same if we want 2nd place. So that's 12 points for a start. I think that any team that doesn't get at least 9 points from the "other 6 games" wont get 2nd place. Scotland, Germany and Poland have already taken 4 points each from those "other 6 games". I would think there is a very good chance that 2 of those teams will take another 6 points from the remainder those "other 6 games". Which actually makes 22 points but there will probably be a couple of draws in there which is why I think 21 will be enough, maybe 20? Any less than that wont get 2nd place in my opinion.

[Tartan blood]

I don't understand the logic, from some, in here. Georgia are absolute garbage. It's a game that we might have drawn/lost in previous regimes. Not because Georgia deserve it, but because we punished ourselves and pissed away the points and were poorly managed. There is no way that will happen under Strachan.

The big games now are not necessarily ours, but the Poland v Ireland double header. 2 draws and I think 2nd is ours. 2 wins from Poland and 3rd is ours. A win a piece and it'll be close.

Chances are we'll all be watching their game rather than ours on the final game day.

[Toepoke]

Aye, but this group has two pretty shit bottom teams that the 2nd place team will be expected to get 12 points off. Ireland and Poland have already got 3 points off Georgia away from home. We will need to do the same if we want 2nd place. So that's 12 points for a start. I think that any team that doesn't get at least 9 points from the "other 6 games" wont get 2nd place. Scotland, Germany and Poland have already taken 4 points each from those "other 6 games". I would think there is a very good chance that 2 of those teams will take another 6 points from the remainder those "other 6 games". Which actually makes 22 points but there will probably be a couple of draws in there which is why I think 21 will be enough, maybe 20? Any less than that wont get 2nd place in my opinion.

That is true 2 weak 5th & 6th pot teams will boost the points required total. But as mentioned if 19 or 20 points only gets you 3rd, then you will be pretty much guaranteed the best placed 3rd team automatic slot. We currently are that team btw:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2016_qualifying#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams

Edited November 17, 2014 by Toepoke

[stocky]

That is true 2 weak 5th & 6th pot teams will boost the points required total. But as mentioned if 19 or 20 points only gets you 3rd, then you will be pretty much guaranteed the best placed 3rd team automatic slot. We currently are that team btw:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2016_qualifying#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams

? Mr Poke, I usually bow to all things football from you .. but we are currently forth.... so it cannae be us , or is there something I have missed.....

[Orraloon]

That is true 2 weak 5th & 6th pot teams will boost the points required total. But as mentioned if 19 or 20 points only gets you 3rd, then you will be pretty much guaranteed the best placed 3rd team automatic slot. We currently are that team btw:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2016_qualifying#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams

Aye, you're right 19 points should get us the best 3rd place spot.

But you're forgetting the "Scotland" factor. This is Scotland we are talking about, we don't do things the easy way.

Edited November 17, 2014 by Orraloon

[Orraloon]

? Mr Poke, I usually bow to all things football from you .. but we are currently forth.... so it cannae be us , or is there something I have missed.....

We are 3rd. We are above Ireland on head to head.

[stocky]

We are 3rd. We are above Ireland on head to head.

OK, Sky Sports has us forth ... goal difference

[Orraloon]

OK, Sky Sports has us forth ... goal difference

Sky sports are wrong. But it's kinda meaningless until we play them in Dublin. Goal difference will only come into play if they beat us 1 - 0 in Dublin and by that time we will have put 12 past Gibraltar.

[wanderer]

Ketsbaia has quit as Georgia manager.... by most accounts he lost the dressing room a long time ago, and sure a number of their big time players said they refused to play for him.....

I am expecting a really tough game in Tbilisi next year.

[Orraloon]

Ketsbaia has quit as Georgia manager.... by most accounts he lost the dressing room a long time ago, and sure a number of their big time players said they refused to play for him.....

I am expecting a really tough game in Tbilisi next year.

Should be easy enough, the new manager will throw in a couple of 16 and 17 year olds. Nothing tae worry aboot.

[macy37]

I really don't get the 'Georgia are gash' tag.

Put a new gaffer in and they have the ability to give some real tough games especially at home where they are normally more than capable of competing with any team if they have a squad who are buying into what their gaffer is doing. What seems to have happened is they have had a gaffer than the squad did not buy into and hence the torrid run of form.

Ok their wins are not regular and earth shattering but they have the ability to make for a bloody tough 90 minutes.

Remind you of a certain country at all?

[podgers1903]

Currently on 7 points
Guaranteed 6 points vs Gibraltar (Takes us to 13)

Surely we would pick up at least 5-6 points from the other 4 games

If we do secure 18-19 points it will be a guarantee we finish 2nd or 3rd best

[Toepoke]

OK, Sky Sports has us forth ... goal difference

Never trust Murdoch.

PS - Enjoyed the cake, a fitba first for me that

[Snapperone]

That is true 2 weak 5th & 6th pot teams will boost the points required total. But as mentioned if 19 or 20 points only gets you 3rd, then you will be pretty much guaranteed the best placed 3rd team automatic slot. We currently are that team btw:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2016_qualifying#Ranking_of_third-placed_teams

Bear in mind that when calculating the best third place team, points gained against the bottom side are deducted if you're playing in a six-team group.

So we could finish third, with more points than any other team in third, but still not qualify automatically.

ie if we finish a point higher than Ukraine, but "lose" six points for beating Gibraltar twice, whereas they only lose four points because they had a victory and a draw against Luxembourg.

There's so many variables that I think it's going to be almost impossible to work out the best third-placed side in advance.

[podgers1903]

Bear in mind that when calculating the best third place team, points gained against the bottom side are deducted if you're playing in a six-team group.

So we could finish third, with more points than any other team in third, but still not qualify automatically.

ie if we finish a point higher than Ukraine, but "lose" six points for beating Gibraltar twice, whereas they only lose four points because they had a victory and a draw against Luxembourg.

There's so many variables that I think it's going to be almost impossible to work out the best third-placed side in advance.

Never actually knew this but does make sense

[Orraloon]

I still think Anya's goal in Germany could be important. I can see us being 3 points behind Germany going into our home game against them. We will know that a 1-0 home win will put us above them on the head to head with only 2 games left. And we just manage to do it, hanging on to our 1 goal lead after a total onslaught for the last 20 minutes. And there will be dancing on the streets of Scotland.

We then go on to beat Poland at Hampden but struggle to a 1-1 draw away to Gibraltar. We only just miss out on 2nd place and then get drawn against Netherlands in the playoffs. It's the Scotland way of doing things.

[wanderer]

There's so many variables that I think it's going to be almost impossible to work out the best third-placed side in advance.

Agree, its going to be at least September next year before the pots look like a true reflection of what the final outcome of what the play off's will be like.

I can not see the likes of Spain, Russia, Portugal, Belgium Germany, Netherlands etc going through a whole campaign stuttering and stalling the way they have started.... these teams will get in to gear eventually, plus probably find teams like Finland, Lithuania and Cyprus will fall away by the end of the campaign.

Looking at each group, I half expect the play off options to look something like Iceland, Wales, Ukraine, Slovenia, Northern Ireland, Austria, Norway, Serbia.... nothing we really should fear, but still, getting enough points to be one of the best 3rd places teams in hope to scrape through that way should be the very minimum we should be looking at.

Edited November 17, 2014 by wanderer

[Orraloon]

Bear in mind that when calculating the best third place team, points gained against the bottom side are deducted if you're playing in a six-team group.

So we could finish third, with more points than any other team in third, but still not qualify automatically.

ie if we finish a point higher than Ukraine, but "lose" six points for beating Gibraltar twice, whereas they only lose four points because they had a victory and a draw against Luxembourg.

There's so many variables that I think it's going to be almost impossible to work out the best third-placed side in advance.

That site that Toepoke posted takes that into account. Although there is still some guesswork into who will finish bottom of each group. I don't think Greece, Azerbaijan and Moldova will finish bottom of their groups even though that is where they sit at present.

You're right there are so many variables and it probably wont be any easier to work out the best 3rd place team even when there are only 2 games to go. It could go down to the last kick of the ball in one of the last round of matches. That's why we need to get second. I don't want to play Netherlands in a play off.

[wanderer]

You're right there are so many variables and it probably wont be any easier to work out the best 3rd place team even when there are only 2 games to go.

IIRC it was pretty late that we found out that we were going to qualify for France 98 as a best runner up.... match day came and everyone was pretty confident we would get it, won the match and we only needed one result to go our way, which was something like Spain to beat the Faroes at home, which was pretty much a foregone conclusion anyway.

Think it was only a few days beforehand that someone did the calculations, and pretty much if we won we were secured it as it would take some pretty freakish results (ie like I said, Faroes to beat Spain was the main one) for us not to get it.

[Orraloon]

IIRC it was pretty late that we found out that we were going to qualify for France 98 as a best runner up.... match day came and everyone was pretty confident we would get it, won the match and we only needed one result to go our way, which was something like Spain to beat the Faroes at home, which was pretty much a foregone conclusion anyway.

Think it was only a few days beforehand that someone did the calculations, and pretty much if we won we were secured it as it would take some pretty freakish results (ie like I said, Faroes to beat Spain was the main one) for us not to get it.

I think we might have been waiting for two results. Can't remember the other one but Spain was definitely one of them.

[wanderer]

I think we might have been waiting for two results. Can't remember the other one but Spain was definitely one of them.

Not sure.... I know that was one of the reasons that the game got moved from Easter Road to Celtic Park pretty late in the day at the time.

[Clyde1998]

I think we might have been waiting for two results. Can't remember the other one but Spain was definitely one of them.

The other one being Italy didn't beat England.

England would've been the best second placed team.

[Orraloon]

The other one being Italy didn't beat England.

England would've been the best second placed team.

Nah, it wasn't that. We would have remembered that one.

If Italy had beaten England, England would have had one point less andso we would have still been better than them. The result of that game didn't matter to us.

[Orraloon]

I think I might be getting a wee bit mixed up. We weren't waiting for 2 results to go our way. We only needed one out of 2 to go our way. We needed either Malta to take points off Yugoslavia (highly unlikely) OR Spain to get at least a point from their game with Faroe Islands ( a wee bit more likely) They were only 2-1 up at half time though so we were more than a wee bit nervous. Our game was in the afternoon and theirs was an evening kick off so we had to wait a few hours before we knew we had avoided a play off.

If Faroe Islands had beaten Spain and Yugoslavia won, then Yugoslavia would have won that group and Spain would have been best runners up and we would have been in a playoff.

[McTeeko]

It was Spain/San Marino that we were waiting on to get to France.

We beat Latvia 2-0 at Celtic Park then Spain won 3-1 later that night ?