Qualification Query

[marinello]

First things first I am very confident we will qualify for Germany but ( and unless I'm missing something)I don't see as is widely reported that a draw on Thursday guarantees us qualification.

Indulge me troops;

If we draw against Spain but lose in Georgia and at home against Norway we finish on 16.

If Norway win their last 3 games they finish on 16.

Turning to Spain if they draw with us, lose in Norway and beat Georgia and Cyprus they finish on 16.

Now ( still awake at the back?) I'm aware it then goes to head to head. Yes, we would win out against Spain whilst Spain would most likely win out against Norway. But if Norway beat us by more than 2 goals or by 3-2, 4-3 etc they would come out on top against us.

I suspect it would then come down to GD but discounting results against Cyprus.

On this basis Spain with a 7-1 tucked away already against Georgia ( and still to play them in Spain) would surely snaffle up 1 of the 2 qualifying spots . This would leave the remaining spot between us and Norway. 

Yes, they are currently miles behind us in GD ( 9 goals by my reckoning)but it is not inconceivable that they could hammer us and beat Spain comfortably and that we get beat heavily in Tiblisi-- thereby overtaking  our current advantage.

Let me repeat its "no gonny 'happen" but technically a draw in Seville doesn't secure qualification.

Other than my marbles am I missing something???

[Toepoke]

If three teams tie on points it's decided on a head to head mini league between them.

In your example that would mean:-

Scotland 7 Pts

Norway 6 Pts

Spain 4 Pts

So Scotland would win the group and Spain would be eliminated.

 

[immcinto]

18 minutes ago, marinello said:

.

Other than my marbles am I missing something???

Yes. 

We would be a three team mini group:
Scotland 7 pts (win/draw Spain, win/lose Nor)
Spain 4 pts (lose/draw Scotland, win/lose Nor)

Norway 6pts (lose/win Scotland, win/lose Sapin)

 

Tiebreakers for group ranking[edit]

If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following tie-breaking criteria are applied:^[4]

1. Higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
2. Superior goal difference in matches played among the teams in question;

[marinello]

Big thanks to Toepoke and immcinto.

Reassuring.

[Bobby Russell's Lovechild]

19 minutes ago, marinello said:

Big thanks to Toepoke and immcinto.

Reassuring.

If we draw on Thursday we're through. If Norway doesn't get three points on Sunday, likewise. 1st and second will sort itself out after👍

[Texas Pete]

The only thing I would add to the discussion is although a draw against Spain would guarantee qualification a draw in Georgia would not if we lose to Spain and Spain lose to Norway.

We would very likely need to beat Georgia to guarantee qualification before Haaland and his mates come to Hampden in November. 

A draw in Georgia should mean a single goal defeat to Norway would see us qualify on goal difference assuming Spain win the group and Norway don’t overhaul our superior GD. Avoiding an absolute doing in Spain on Thursday could be very important for us.

I’m away for a lie down in a dark room after trying to figure that out. 

[86glebestreet]

1 hour ago, Texas Pete said:

The only thing I would add to the discussion is although a draw against Spain would guarantee qualification a draw in Georgia would not if we lose to Spain and Spain lose to Norway.

We would very likely need to beat Georgia to guarantee qualification before Haaland and his mates come to Hampden in November. 

A draw in Georgia should mean a single goal defeat to Norway would see us qualify on goal difference assuming Spain win the group and Norway don’t overhaul our superior GD. Avoiding an absolute doing in Spain on Thursday could be very important for us.

I’m away for a lie down in a dark room after trying to figure that out. 

I’m away to get something for my nerves which kicked I yesterday 

[Orraloon]

16 hours ago, Bobby Russell's Lovechild said:

If we draw on Thursday we're through. If Norway doesn't get three points on Sunday, likewise. 1st and second will sort itself out after👍

I'm not writing off Cyprus yet, they might just do us a wee favour. They played pretty decent at Hampden. I thought that  3-0 scoreline flattered us a wee bit. We did totally hump them last month, right enough, but I'm putting that down to us being totally awesome.

[Orraloon]

6 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

The only thing I would add to the discussion is although a draw against Spain would guarantee qualification a draw in Georgia would not if we lose to Spain and Spain lose to Norway.

We would very likely need to beat Georgia to guarantee qualification before Haaland and his mates come to Hampden in November. 

A draw in Georgia should mean a single goal defeat to Norway would see us qualify on goal difference assuming Spain win the group and Norway don’t overhaul our superior GD. Avoiding an absolute doing in Spain on Thursday could be very important for us.

I’m away for a lie down in a dark room after trying to figure that out. 

We had this discussion on another thread earlier and Todd put the shitters up us by suggesting a reasonably plausible set of results which would see Norway beating us on GD. Let's not go down that route again, I'm nervous enough as it is. 🤣 

 

Although, we do still have a play off spot in the bag.

I think it's time to head out for some drink. 🤣

[Reidster78]

Let's just hope Spain pump Norway on Sunday and we're all good. 

[Texas Pete]

3 hours ago, Reidster78 said:

Let's just hope Spain pump Norway on Sunday and we're all good. 

A draw in that game would be the best result for us. 

Would be pretty nervy towards the end right enough so I would happily take 0-5 to Spain at half time right now. 

[Orraloon]

31 minutes ago, Texas Pete said:

A draw in that game would be the best result for us. 

Would be pretty nervy towards the end right enough so I would happily take 0-5 to Spain at half time right now. 

Not after we get a point tomorrow. Then we want Norway to beat Spain.........I think.......🤔

Plenty of time to worry about that between Friday and Sunday. 🤣

 

[Texas Pete]

3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

Not after we get a point tomorrow. Then we want Norway to beat Spain.........I think.......🤔

Plenty of time to worry about that between Friday and Sunday. 🤣

 

😂😂😂

Well aye the ideal situation is we win tomorrow and Norway win on Sunday and we’ll have the group won with 2 games to spare. Anyone who genuinely thinks that will happen needs to lay off the drugs though. 

I am assuming Spain are going to beat us tomorrow as any other result is very unlikely but yeah if we get a point tomorrow I’ll be cheering on Norway on Sunday. 

[runningtings]

Does Spain beating Norway on Sunday not qualify us regardless of all else?

[Texas Pete]

21 minutes ago, runningtings said:

Does Spain beating Norway on Sunday not qualify us regardless of all else?

If we lose tomorrow night we will qualify on Sunday if Norway fail to beat Spain. 

[Orraloon]

28 minutes ago, runningtings said:

Does Spain beating Norway on Sunday not qualify us regardless of all else?

Norway need to win all of their three reaming games to stop us qualifying. If they drop any points against Cyprus or Spain this week, we will qualify, regardless of what else happens.

[runningtings]

Aye that's where I'm looking, I'm in Sevilla for a wee holiday and you just never know with the game. Feel like this is an extra.

[Texas Pete]

47 minutes ago, runningtings said:

Aye that's where I'm looking, I'm in Sevilla for a wee holiday and you just never know with the game. Feel like this is an extra.

Getting a result tomorrow isn’t impossible but it will obviously be very difficult. 

Looking at their results over the last couple of years they have drawn with Greece and lost to Switzerland at home so there is some hope there. 

We will need to have a very good game and maybe have some luck as well but anything is possible. That includes Spain giving us a right doing unfortunately but hopefully that won’t happen. 

[ceudmilefailte]

Anyone keeping track of who we might get in the play offs, like in the good old days.

[Texas Pete]

38 minutes ago, ceudmilefailte said:

Anyone keeping track of who we might get in the play offs, like in the good old days.

I have no interest in who might be in the playoffs at the moment. 

I might have a sneaky peak if we lose tomorrow and Norway beat Spain on Sunday though. 

[immcinto]

Difference between Spain winning by 1 goal Vs 2+ goals is that Scotland still have a 41% chance of winning the group if we lose by 1 goal. It drops to 17% when the gap is 2+ goals.  85% with the draw. 

It is quite important to keep it to 1 goal

[Texas Pete]

1 hour ago, immcinto said:

Difference between Spain winning by 1 goal Vs 2+ goals is that Scotland still have a 41% chance of winning the group if we lose by 1 goal. It drops to 17% when the gap is 2+ goals.  85% with the draw. 

It is quite important to keep it to 1 goal

If only it was that easy. If we could guarantee keeping it to a one goal defeat we should just guarantee a draw instead. 

[immcinto]

It matters near the final whistle. Should we be running down the clock rather than chasing a goal if 1 goal down?

[Toepoke]

It'd be nice to invoke the spirit of '63...

https://www.londonhearts.com/scotland/games/19630613.html

 

[Texas Pete]

8 hours ago, immcinto said:

It matters near the final whistle. Should we be running down the clock rather than chasing a goal if 1 goal down?

We should be trying to get at least a point from this game regardless of how close we are to the final whistle.