Craig Fae Hamilton Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 I wanted to know the chances of ABSOLUTE Qualification in our next Game! I'll have a bash at the % chance, any more accurate calculations, let me know. Scotland Qualify IF we DRAW or BEAT Spain.............. OR Norway DRAW or LOSE versus Cyprus The Norway Calculation is easy to make. They need to WIN ALL there games to have any chance of over taking Scotland. Scotland BEATING Spain is also easy as neither Spain or Norway could over take us. If Scotland DRAW with Spain it is more complicated. But in this situation, Scotland QUALIFY regardless of the Norway Result. It would leave us 6 Points Clear of Spain. Spain would have 3 Games remaining. If we were to finish the Group level on Points with Spain it goes to the HEAD to HEAD results between us, NOT Goal Difference. So Scotland would beat them. That means to over take us, they would need at least 2 Wins and a Draw from the final 3 fixtures. To get that, They would need a minimum of a Draw V Norway. And, as Norway need to win all Games, in that scenario Norway would be OUT! Best Odds available on the games as at 17.50 27th Sept at Oddschecker: Home Team / Draw / Away Team / Over Round Cyprus 9/1 (10%) / 4/1 (20%) / Norway 7/20 (74.07%) / 4.07% Spain 1/3 (75.02%) / 4/1 (20%) / Scotland 9/1 (10%) / 5.02% And, with the Over Round removed (assuming it is split across all 3 Outcomes) it puts the chances at: Scotland Win = 8.33% Scotland Draw = 18.33% Cyprus Win = 8.64% Cyprus Draw = 18.64% TOTAL = 53.94% that Scotland secures Qualification in the Spain Game! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Isn’t that over both games, so it’s 53.94% of 200%? Therefore there’s only a 26.97% chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig Fae Hamilton Posted September 27, 2023 Author Share Posted September 27, 2023 Nope, because it's any 1 of 4 outcomes. Each Outcome has a percentage chance of occurring. So the percentage chance of at least 1 of 4 of those things happening are the 4 chances added together. The 4 of them have been calculated on a scale of 0-100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 I’ll take your word for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 If we take a point (or 3) off Spain we have qualified. Doesn't need to be any more complicated than that. Certainly for the players anyway. Some fans enjoy playing about with the numbers though, myself included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
todd Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Isn't it kind of cool that we've stayed top of the group right from the get go? Small things I know but I like it 😁 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Pete Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 6:06 PM, Craig Fae Hamilton said: I wanted to know the chances of ABSOLUTE Qualification in our next Game! I'll have a bash at the % chance, any more accurate calculations, let me know. Scotland Qualify IF we DRAW or BEAT Spain.............. OR Norway DRAW or LOSE versus Cyprus The Norway Calculation is easy to make. They need to WIN ALL there games to have any chance of over taking Scotland. Scotland BEATING Spain is also easy as neither Spain or Norway could over take us. If Scotland DRAW with Spain it is more complicated. But in this situation, Scotland QUALIFY regardless of the Norway Result. It would leave us 6 Points Clear of Spain. Spain would have 3 Games remaining. If we were to finish the Group level on Points with Spain it goes to the HEAD to HEAD results between us, NOT Goal Difference. So Scotland would beat them. That means to over take us, they would need at least 2 Wins and a Draw from the final 3 fixtures. To get that, They would need a minimum of a Draw V Norway. And, as Norway need to win all Games, in that scenario Norway would be OUT! Best Odds available on the games as at 17.50 27th Sept at Oddschecker: Home Team / Draw / Away Team / Over Round Cyprus 9/1 (10%) / 4/1 (20%) / Norway 7/20 (74.07%) / 4.07% Spain 1/3 (75.02%) / 4/1 (20%) / Scotland 9/1 (10%) / 5.02% And, with the Over Round removed (assuming it is split across all 3 Outcomes) it puts the chances at: Scotland Win = 8.33% Scotland Draw = 18.33% Cyprus Win = 8.64% Cyprus Draw = 18.64% TOTAL = 53.94% that Scotland secures Qualification in the Spain Game! If we draw with Spain we qualify regardless of the drivel you have posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
immcinto Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Going by the odds you quote there is only a 46.8% chance Scotland qualify the night of the Spain game. You need to calculate it like an accumulator. Multiply probability of Spain winning (0.7333) by probability of Norway winning (0.7272)=0.5322. That is the probability of not qualifying. Subtract that from 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caledonian Craig Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 One thing that potentially help us that the stifling hot weather Seville has had of late is forecast to turn much cooler with a bit of rain. Less physically demanding weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanBlessed Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 I'd be amazed if we get anything out of this game. Spain seem to have hit form and although Porteous and Hendry are decent players, they're probably not good enough to an in-form Spain out. I hope I'm proved wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runningtings Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 we will get pumped in Spain so hopefully we all have a good holiday and the players get ready for the remaining competitive fixtures Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig Fae Hamilton Posted September 30, 2023 Author Share Posted September 30, 2023 11 hours ago, Texas Pete said: If we draw with Spain we qualify regardless of the drivel you have posted. Stop replying to my Topics you absolute BAW BAG! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig Fae Hamilton Posted September 30, 2023 Author Share Posted September 30, 2023 5 hours ago, immcinto said: Going by the odds you quote there is only a 46.8% chance Scotland qualify the night of the Spain game. You need to calculate it like an accumulator. Multiply probability of Spain winning (0.7333) by probability of Norway winning (0.7272)=0.5322. That is the probability of not qualifying. Subtract that from 1 Now I need to check......... Chance of Spain Winning: 75.02-1.67=73.35 Chance of Norway Winning: 74.17-1.36=72.81 Accumulator: 0.7281x73.35=53.34% 1-.5334=46.66% So yeah, you are correct. But, why do the Chances of the other 4 Outcomes combined come to 53.94%? What am I missing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig Fae Hamilton Posted September 30, 2023 Author Share Posted September 30, 2023 (edited) My Head Hurts, but yeah, Spain will be tough. But, in our favour is that a Norway win in Cyprus is not an absolute Gimme........You see what I done there Pete? 😀 Edited September 30, 2023 by Craig Fae Hamilton Pete IS an absolute Baw Bag Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OLAS Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 FFS, beat Spain and we win the group. Don’t need formula nonsense. We have already qualified. It’s just not official yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Pete Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 11 hours ago, Craig Fae Hamilton said: Stop replying to my Topics you absolute BAW BAG! I’ll reply to what I want to thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Pete Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 9 hours ago, OLAS said: FFS, beat Spain and we win the group. Don’t need formula nonsense. We have already qualified. It’s just not official yet. Oh dear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texas Pete Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 13 hours ago, BryanBlessed said: I'd be amazed if we get anything out of this game. Spain seem to have hit form and although Porteous and Hendry are decent players, they're probably not good enough to an in-form Spain out. I hope I'm proved wrong. Amazed is maybe a bit strong for me but yeah I would agree we are unlikely to get anything. The same thing was said by many people before we beat Spain in March though. Paris 2007 as well. You just never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bzzzz Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Noticed Andy Robertson smashing Porro in the chops the day, nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig Fae Hamilton Posted October 3, 2023 Author Share Posted October 3, 2023 We need a proper statistician for this thread. Although safe to say, we have around a 50/50 chance of qualifying in the next Round of Games. Going with replies, the majority on this thread are erring on the side of us not qualifying this Match Day. I think we might do it via a Cyprus DRAW. But, any route would do, it would be brilliant to get it done and dusted off the back of our own performance versus Spain. Mon' the Scotland! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Basically if we avoid defeat to Spain and we qualify, if we lose, then it will be officially confirmed the following week unless Norway can pull off as big a shock as we did against Spain at Hampden (Norway are in the position we are usually in where we know we need to pick up 3 wins out of 3, and one of them is against the top seed, and in Spain's case it looks like they are out of 1st gear now) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Norway currently 17/5 to beat Spain in Oslo. Add that to the probability of either Cyprus v Norway or Spain v Scotland going our way and the chances of qualifying by next Sunday are 88% (56% chance of Norway and Spain winning next week, only 22% chance of Norway then beating Spain = 12.32%) Been practising my statistics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gala Tartan Army (Borders) Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 45 minutes ago, wanderer said: Basically if we avoid defeat to Spain and we qualify, if we lose, then it will be officially confirmed the following week unless Norway can pull off as big a shock as we did against Spain at Hampden (Norway are in the position we are usually in where we know we need to pick up 3 wins out of 3, and one of them is against the top seed, and in Spain's case it looks like they are out of 1st gear now) My concern is if Spain beat us, they are qualified essentially (provided beat Cyprus away and Georgia at home in November which they will) so maybe arent at 100% v Norway or rest few guys as they did against us. And obviously the Haaland factor as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wanderer Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 23 minutes ago, Gala Tartan Army (Borders) said: My concern is if Spain beat us, they are qualified essentially (provided beat Cyprus away and Georgia at home in November which they will) so maybe arent at 100% v Norway or rest few guys as they did against us. And obviously the Haaland factor as well. They qualify, but does not mean they win the group. That is the important factor, as group winners will be the top seeds for the Euro draw, so Spain can not take their foot off of the gas against Norway. Rewatching Norway v Georgia, Gorgia could have grabbed the draw with the last kick of the ball, so Spain will probably go in to that game with both eyes fixed on a win in order to win the group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bzzzz Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Gala Tartan Army (Borders) said: My concern is if Spain beat us, they are qualified essentially (provided beat Cyprus away and Georgia at home in November which they will) so maybe arent at 100% v Norway or rest few guys as they did against us. And obviously the Haaland factor as well. I think Spain will be 'expecting' to beat both us and Norway. Fingers crossed we set about them like we did last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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