Toepoke Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I think I posted this on the old board. Have a play about with the percentages, shows you how far the Labour vote would have to collapse for the SNP to make a dent in Westminster next year... http://www.scotlandvotes.com/westminster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 when it comes down to it the labour vote will unite to keep the tories out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Bob Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 when it comes down to it the labour vote will unite to keep the tories out. I think the Tories will tactically vote labour to keep the SNP out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 This was the full vote in 2010 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/region/7.stm 63.8% turnout was quite high Actually agree with Eddard in that it will be difficult to actually stop Labour getting a lot of seats - but not impossible. It's likely the Lib Dems will be wiped out so it will be between Labour,& SNP with most of the 45% voting SNP. The Tory vote will likely be the same Labour got over a million votes so not hard to see what needs to happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lamia Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 when it comes down to it the labour vote will unite to keep the tories out. What is the difference - many Labour voters are angry because there is none Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EddardStark Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Labour are laying the ground for the GE 2015. 50% tax rate is a key difference. However I think Labour are restricted in what they can do in terms of not carrying on with cuts. £75bn is a pretty big deficit. They are on about mansion taxes so these are pretty popular policies amongst their core support. Also an £8.50 minimum wage is another core labour vote winner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I dont pay much attention to Miliband, but isn't the £8 minimum wage pledge, a gradual increase to 2020. If so, what a load o shite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Endell Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The Miliband and Balls show is an absolutely terrifying prospect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kilt Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 The Miliband and Balls show is an absolutely terrifying prospect. They not electable. Tories will win down south no problem. Up here its a matter how hard the SNP hit them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 I think I posted this on the old board. Have a play about with the percentages, shows you how far the Labour vote would have to collapse for the SNP to make a dent in Westminster next year... http://www.scotlandvotes.com/Westminster If you plug in the 2011 Holyrood percentages it makes quite a big difference Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted September 22, 2014 Author Share Posted September 22, 2014 If you plug in the 2011 Holyrood percentages it makes quite a big difference True but (from the SNP website yesterday) the latest Westminster voting intentions poll shows Labour at 39%, SNP 35%, Tories 18% and LibDems on 3%. This bumps the SNP up to 14 seats (mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems). Labour would only lose 1 seat. The Tories would get 3 seats, so we'll need twin baby pandas pronto... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 (edited) Am I missing something. What relevance are these percentages when we have FPTP voting system? Is every seat not just fought on an individual basis? Edited September 22, 2014 by AlfieMoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted September 22, 2014 Share Posted September 22, 2014 Am I missing something. What relevance are these percentages when we have FPTP voting system? Is every seat not just fought on an individual basis? The calculator works it out based on average swing compared to 2010. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 23, 2014 Share Posted September 23, 2014 True but (from the SNP website yesterday) the latest Westminster voting intentions poll shows Labour at 39%, SNP 35%, Tories 18% and LibDems on 3%. This bumps the SNP up to 14 seats (mainly at the expense of the Lib Dems). Labour would only lose 1 seat. The Tories would get 3 seats, so we'll need twin baby pandas pronto... Aye, I think SNP need to get over the 40% mark to make a significant difference. I have been thinking for a while now that SNP could maybe rebrand themselves. Maybe they could become something like the Independence Party of Scotland and try to include all the other parties who support independence. I think that the new "party" should have a firm undertaking to disband within 5 years of independence back into their constituent parts. Not sure if it would work in practise though but this would be the ideal time to consider it. Mind you, if the Tories give us DevoMax all that might just be a waste of time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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