Eu Membership Referendum

[aaid]

23 minutes ago, stocky said:

A lot of Rich Southerners have settled there and brought their views with them.

See, know that would make sense until you look at Southern England, which presumably is where you think all these rich Southerners come from and where presumably there are lots more rich Southerners who still live there.  So on that basis you'd expect those areas to be rabidly eurosceptic as well, when in reality they are either neutral or leaning towards euroscepticism.   I suspect that's just more about your own ill-informed predjudice.

[stocky]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

See, know that would make sense until you look at Southern England, which presumably is where you think all these rich Southerners come from and where presumably there are lots more rich Southerners who still live there.  So on that basis you'd expect those areas to be rabidly eurosceptic as well, when in reality they are either neutral or leaning towards euroscepticism.   I suspect that's just more about your own ill-informed predjudice.

, ill informed produces... 

we all have predjucies, blatant and covert. i dont think it was ill informed it was based on experience and knowledge. i am open to other suggestions however you dont offer any.

 

I have worked in the area and am aware of the many 'rich Southerners' who have come up and bought houses and businesses,A bit like parts of the highlands. I have no idea about their individual political views, but as the map we are discussing shows strong euro skepticism in southern areas, and this is where the people come from then it can be presumed that their views came along with them.

if you have an average eurosceptic place, most of England , and add in people from stronger eurosceptic areas, the euroscepticism will obviously rise, as i suggested in Cumbria.

 Moray is similar, strong fishing anti europe feeling combined with the retired( mostly southern), anti european, pro UKIP ,  air base personnel.

 

of course it could be something else, it was just one opinion, 

whats yours?

 

[phart]

EU regulation might be preferrable to giving the Tories Carte Blanche to enrich themselves at our expense. Not that hasn't been going on for centuries anyway.

[Rossy]

15 minutes ago, phart said:

EU regulation might be preferrable to giving the Tories Carte Blanche to enrich themselves at our expense. Not that hasn't been going on for centuries anyway.

I still believe that in many ways, the EU is a defence against the excesses of national governments....especially where it comes to workers rights.

If there's a No vote, the Tories will have us back to Victorian values in under 2 years. If you have a kid under 12 years old, i'd get him practicing climbing the inside of chimneys just now.

 

 

[aaid]

30 minutes ago, stocky said:

 

whats yours?

 

 

52 minutes ago, stocky said:

, ill informed produces... 

we all have predjucies, blatant and covert. i dont think it was ill informed it was based on experience and knowledge. i am open to other suggestions however you dont offer any.

 

I have worked in the area and am aware of the many 'rich Southerners' who have come up and bought houses and businesses,A bit like parts of the highlands. I have no idea about their individual political views, but as the map we are discussing shows strong euro skepticism in southern areas, and this is where the people come from then it can be presumed that their views came along with them.

if you have an average eurosceptic place, most of England , and add in people from stronger eurosceptic areas, the euroscepticism will obviously rise, as i suggested in Cumbria.

 Moray is similar, strong fishing anti europe feeling combined with the retired( mostly southern), anti european, pro UKIP ,  air base personnel.

 

of course it could be something else, it was just one opinion, 

whats yours?

 

I have absolutely no idea and I'm not going to jump to any conclusions.  

Cumbria has a lower level of non-uk net immigration than the English average.

I'd say though that there are fundamental differences in the demographics between Cumbria and Dumfries and Galloway.  Cumbria has more of an urban population the D&G with Carlisle, Barrow, Workington and Whitehaven all being fairly large towns and in the case of Carlisle a city whereas in D&G, Dumfries is the only town of any significant size.

Looking at the last UK general elections, the vote seems pretty similar to the English average - Con 41% (0), Labour 30% (-1.5), Lib Dem 12.5% (+4), UKIP 12.6%(-1.5).  The only thing of note there is the Liberal vote is higher than average which is probably down to Tim Farron.

So there's nothing particularly obvious there from what I can see.

Sorry but your point regarding Moray -with the exception of fishing - is pure Settler Watch mince and to me looks like the same small minded xenophobic attitudes towards "outsiders" that are prevalent in UKIP.   The fact that the SNP have held Moray since 1987 suggests your theory is bollocks.

[stocky]

18 minutes ago, aaid said:

 

I have absolutely no idea and I'm not going to jump to any conclusions.  

Cumbria has a lower level of non-uk net immigration than the English average.

I'd say though that there are fundamental differences in the demographics between Cumbria and Dumfries and Galloway.  Cumbria has more of an urban population the D&G with Carlisle, Barrow, Workington and Whitehaven all being fairly large towns and in the case of Carlisle a city whereas in D&G, Dumfries is the only town of any significant size.

Looking at the last UK general elections, the vote seems pretty similar to the English average - Con 41% (0), Labour 30% (-1.5), Lib Dem 12.5% (+4), UKIP 12.6%(-1.5).  The only thing of note there is the Liberal vote is higher than average which is probably down to Tim Farron.

So there's nothing particularly obvious there from what I can see.

Sorry but your point regarding Moray -with the exception of fishing - is pure Settler Watch mince and to me looks like the same small minded xenophobic attitudes towards "outsiders" that are prevalent in UKIP.   The fact that the SNP have held Moray since 1987 suggests your theory is bollocks.

MMmm your insults are getting as bad as a certain Dalry man's used to be. ,,

it is ok to post reply's without retorting in insults,it can be done , this is a message board with differing conversations with differing.opinions, if you wanna insult on every reply, you will soon fond not many will converse with ya.

The first part was good educated  debate the second was not..

I have a political Active mate who lives in Elgin,and as as the UKIP vote was the highest in Scotland there, i asked him why, he stated it was down to the retired guys from the Base and the current Airforce staff ( most of whom are not local to Moray) as is the case at all Army bases, I am sure you will get high levels of SNP Pockets near army bases in England, this does not make that fact xenephobic, it just makes it an observational fact

so these voters along with some old ex fishermen have caused the UKIP vote here to be the highest in Scotland, 8%, not enough to win a seat at an election, but still high enough to stick out. as elsewhere UKIP is less that 5% ( except Orkney, 2nd highest place in Scotland) 

Now he might be a xenophobic and small minded, but i presume he knows his voting area well, as I do mine., he has, canvassed the area and is aware of who votes for whom

So I am actually more informed about Moray than i am about Cumbria, however, as i stated Cumbria was an educated guess, open for debate, 

My information about Moray is far from Bollox.

However you seem to be trying to label SNP supporters with insults .

Beat them with facts , if you can

 

Why do you think UKIP in Moray is nearly double elsewhere in Scotland.?

 

[aaid]

30 minutes ago, stocky said:

so these voters along with some old ex fishermen have caused the UKIP vote here to be the highest in Scotland, 8%, not enough to win a seat at an election, but still high enough to stick out. as elsewhere UKIP is less that 5% ( except Orkney, 2nd highest place in Scotland)

Why do you think UKIP in Moray is nearly double elsewhere in Scotland.?

 

First of all, it was your comment about "lots of rich Southerners" which got my back up as it has tones of "swarms of migrants", if that wasn't how you meant it, then I apoligise.  Secondly, while living outwith Scotland means I can't vote for them, I am an SNP supporter myself and have been for some years.  Used to be Labour but like many lost faith with Blair.

On to the point in question.  The UKIP vote in Moray was actually 4%, based on a Scottish average of 1.6%.  However given that they only polled 1939 votes you are only talking about 1200 or so votes which you could put down to a combination of anti-EU feeling in the local electorate, specifically down to the Common Fisheries Policy.  I'd say that would be a lot more significant than the bases.  I haven't seen any data on this but I'd generally think that the forces would tend to be representative of the general population, albeit, that would be the UK rather than Scotland, that may have an impact.  

Basically - on the 2015 GE results, support across the board for UKIP is so small that you can see local variations based on local conditions but the actual numbers are so small as to be pretty insignificant.   

On the whole if I had to put an higher than average support for UKIP - but still relatively small - in Moray down to one thing, I'd say anti-EU sentiment down to fishing.  I'd also prepared that a significant number of those voted Yes.

One useful parallel would have been Banff and Buchan which is probably the constituency in Scotland most impacted by the CFP but unfortunately - for this scenario at least - UKIP didn't stand a candidate.

[aaid]

Just looking at where UKIP picked up votes in the GE in Scotland out of interest.

Moray had the largest number of votes but the largest percentage was in Orkney and Shetland but that was still only 4.76%.   The other constituencies where they got 3% or more of the vote were Angus, Falkirk, and Livingston.  There's nothing that in particular leaps out about anything that is particularly different in those constituencies.  Coburn stood in Falkirk so I guess his higher profile might have something to do with that, although personally I'd have thought the thing most likely to put you off voting for David Coburn would be seeing him on TV.  Of course, they lost their deposit in every constituency.

Personally I think that UKIP support in Scotland is somewhat higher than the 1.6% they polled in the General Election.   The dynamics of that election was that it was essentially the SNP against everyone else in a FPTP election and so I suspect that a lot of people who would be UKIP minded, voted tactically, essentially voted anti-SNP.  It'll be interesting to see what happens in May, especially in the list vote.  I'd be surprised if they don't pick up a couple of list seats along the way, they'll probably poll 5-6% in a couple of regions and it'll be down to the arithmetic.

[stocky]

I cant find the figures that back up the basis for my original post of 7-8% in Moray, but its stuck in my head from a previous discussion, I will keep looking.   

I read all election results the way most read a league table......

Aye Falkirk was where Coburn stood, they spent loadsa cash there.

Angus , mite be fisherfolk? Un sure!!

Orkney was higher than Shetland IIRC. 

They could get a couple of seats in Holyrude through our system and the fact there is a Euro campaign on..  

They do represent an opinion (Vile IMO) so they are entitled to a seat or two if thats the way the vote goes, 

I would love them to get less than 5% in each region,. it would be a poor show if they get more seats than the greens.

It makes me sick that Coburn represents Scotland in any form...  However I know Labour folk who voted for him to stop SNP getting 3rd euro seat....

[aaid]

12 minutes ago, stocky said:

However I know Labour folk who voted for him to stop SNP getting 3rd euro seat....

A real case of be careful what you wish for.  The irony here of course is that the third euro seat would have been Tasmina and I'm sure they would much rather have her in the relative anonymity of Brussels rather than on the front bench in Westminster. 

[Alan]

L

9 hours ago, Freeedom said:

I completely agree with you, Sturgeon is a total hypocrite but so are you for not backing independence for Scotland.

I'm a soft Remain. If Leave had facts and costs of what would happen that could persuade me but they won't. Maybe they'll bring out a massive lie like the White paper during indyref but doubt it.

I think Cameron got a good deal with the time and what he had to work with. There will be chances for future change to build on and rebalance EU. You just need to see growing euro-sceptism in countries like Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands and France where the mainstream parties need to meet.

[Orraloon]

4 hours ago, aaid said:

Just looking at where UKIP picked up votes in the GE in Scotland out of interest.

Moray had the largest number of votes but the largest percentage was in Orkney and Shetland but that was still only 4.76%.   The other constituencies where they got 3% or more of the vote were Angus, Falkirk, and Livingston.  There's nothing that in particular leaps out about anything that is particularly different in those constituencies.  Coburn stood in Falkirk so I guess his higher profile might have something to do with that, although personally I'd have thought the thing most likely to put you off voting for David Coburn would be seeing him on TV.  Of course, they lost their deposit in every constituency.

Personally I think that UKIP support in Scotland is somewhat higher than the 1.6% they polled in the General Election.   The dynamics of that election was that it was essentially the SNP against everyone else in a FPTP election and so I suspect that a lot of people who would be UKIP minded, voted tactically, essentially voted anti-SNP.  It'll be interesting to see what happens in May, especially in the list vote.  I'd be surprised if they don't pick up a couple of list seats along the way, they'll probably poll 5-6% in a couple of regions and it'll be down to the arithmetic.

I don't think UKIP will get any seats from the lis vote in May.

 

[stocky]

8 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I don't think UKIP will get any seats from the lis vote in May.

 

they are sitting about 4% just now, they need 5-6% to get a seat on the list

With all the Anti Europe stuff we are gonna get over the next few weeks, who knows....

6% all over Scotland will get them 7 seats..........

They will prob split the Tory vote tho......

we will see..

[exile]

Liam Fox on the Today programme there, making a passionate case for self-determination, angry about Project Fear (saying the Remain side should be concentrating on the positive case for supra-nationalism), and saying what could be more important than the destiny of your country.

Then dismisses Scottish independence and accuses SNP of sabre-rattling!

And the presenter fails to challenge him on it... 

Edited March 4, 2016 by exile

[Alan]

Sturgeon seemed to get an easy time after her recent speech in that London when she discussed pooling and sharing proving we are better together under the EU. It was the reverse of her last referendum statements.

She left out money given to EU, centre-right bloc being largest in Euro Parliament, Scotland never getting the government it votes for, unelected commissioners, forced austerity on Ireland, Greece and Italy. Standing shoulder to shoulder with David Cameron. Shame on her. Shame.

[stocky]

1 hour ago, Alan said:

Sturgeon seemed to get an easy time after her recent speech in that London when she discussed pooling and sharing proving we are better together under the EU. It was the reverse of her last referendum statements.

She left out money given to EU, centre-right bloc being largest in Euro Parliament, Scotland never getting the government it votes for, unelected commissioners, forced austerity on Ireland, Greece and Italy. Standing shoulder to shoulder with David Cameron. Shame on her. Shame.

Scotland gets more of her money back from Europe than it does from Westminster....

where and when has she stood with Cameron, come on Alan, let us know

Come on please...

Please 

anything.............

 

or are you just Havering again....

Havering Alan...  

[Glasgowmancity]

3 hours ago, stocky said:

 

where and when has she stood with Cameron,

Surely by coming out in support of staying in the EU???........ the same as Cameron has.

[stocky]

13 minutes ago, Glasgowmancity said:

Surely by coming out in support of staying in the EU???........ the same as Cameron has.

Clutching at straws there Mr City,

a wee bit of a long shot , is it no

 

no where near shoulder to shoulder.

[aaid]

8 minutes ago, Glasgowmancity said:

Surely by coming out in support of staying in the EU???........ the same as Cameron has.

That's really just semantics.  Nicola makes very clear that while the SNP want the same outcome - the UK to remain in the EU - it is for very different reasons and they conduct a different campaign and will pursue very different arguments. 

Its a completely different scenario from the Scottish referendum where not only did Labour and the Tories want the same outcome the followed the same agenda, put forwards the same arguments they were joined at the hip in the campaign.  Only late in the day with Gordon Brown's intervention did they attempt the "United with Labour" campaign when it became obvious that the cosying up in Better Together was counterproductive in the long run but that was too little too late.

Lets just remind ourselves who the directors of Better Together 2012 Ltd were.

Mark McInnes - Tory Councillor in Edinburgh
Craig Harrow - Scottish Convenor of the Lib Dems
Phil Anderton - ex CEO of Hearts and the SRU
Richard Baker - former Labour MSP
Baroness Nosheena Mobarick - Tory Peer
Jackie Baillie - the one and only
Katrina Laidlaw - former Labour PPC
Mairi Thornton
Alastair Darling - Labour Peer and former MP
David McLetchie - Former MSP and leader of the Scottish Conservatives.

Better Together was set up from day one as a joint exercise between the Unionist parties.

 

[Glasgowmancity]

40 minutes ago, stocky said:

Clutching at straws there Mr City,

a wee bit of a long shot , is it no

 

no where near shoulder to shoulder.

 

26 minutes ago, aaid said:

That's really just semantics.  Nicola makes very clear that while the SNP want the same outcome - the UK to remain in the EU - it is for very different reasons and they conduct a different campaign and will pursue very different arguments. 

Its a completely different scenario from the Scottish referendum where not only did Labour and the Tories want the same outcome the followed the same agenda, put forwards the same arguments they were joined at the hip in the campaign.  Only late in the day with Gordon Brown's intervention did they attempt the "United with Labour" campaign when it became obvious that the cosying up in Better Together was counterproductive in the long run but that was too little too late.

Lets just remind ourselves who the directors of Better Together 2012 Ltd were.

Mark McInnes - Tory Councillor in Edinburgh
Craig Harrow - Scottish Convenor of the Lib Dems
Phil Anderton - ex CEO of Hearts and the SRU
Richard Baker - former Labour MSP
Baroness Nosheena Mobarick - Tory Peer
Jackie Baillie - the one and only
Katrina Laidlaw - former Labour PPC
Mairi Thornton
Alastair Darling - Labour Peer and former MP
David McLetchie - Former MSP and leader of the Scottish Conservatives.

Better Together was set up from day one as a joint exercise between the Unionist parties.

 

I don't deny any of that, but I think that's what Alan was getting at.

 

I also believe campaigning on the same side (even over one issue) for the same outcome can be seen as "standing shoulder to shoulder" - especially when stocky was looking for anything they have stood "shoulder to shoulder" on

[aaid]

37 minutes ago, Glasgowmancity said:

I also believe campaigning on the same side (even over one issue) for the same outcome can be seen as "standing shoulder to shoulder" - especially when stocky was looking for anything they have stood "shoulder to shoulder" on

To draw a footballing analogy.  On Sunday, we both wanted the same outcome, which was Man City to win the League Cup.  You wanted this outcome because you are a Man City season ticket holder and I wanted this outcome because I wanted to see the Scousers beaten.   I don't think you could describe us as standing shoulder to shoulder not least because you were at Wembley and I was on my couch.

Well done, BTW.

[Alan]

"Nicola" and "Dave" are on the same side. Hence shoulder to shoulder to stay in EU.

aaid - why not support a Scottish team? Sigh. You're not helping the National team.

[Glasgowmancity]

50 minutes ago, aaid said:

To draw a footballing analogy.  On Sunday, we both wanted the same outcome, which was Man City to win the League Cup.  You wanted this outcome because you are a Man City season ticket holder and I wanted this outcome because I wanted to see the Scousers beaten.   I don't think you could describe us as standing shoulder to shoulder not least because you were at Wembley and I was on my couch.

Well done, BTW.

Cheers  thank feck I never went to Anfield

 

As for the analogy - I would say metaphorically we stood shoulder to shoulder in wanting Liverpool to lose - it's all semantics & tenuous at best though

[aaid]

19 minutes ago, Alan said:

"Nicola" and "Dave" are on the same side. Hence shoulder to shoulder to stay in EU.

aaid - why not support a Scottish team? Sigh. You're not helping the National team.

 

Bad as in not very good rather than naughty.

 

Edited March 4, 2016 by aaid

[TDYER63]

To me , the term ' standing shoulder to shoulder' signifiies camaraderie  .

The definition of ' camaraderie  is ' Mutual trust  and friendship among people who spend a lot of time together' .

Hmmmmm.