antidote Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 You need to redo your sums. There are 4.2 million registered voters. So we need about 1.7 million YES votes. And you need to read "around" more closely and see the part where I said the vast majority haven't signed the declaration. I should have said at that point that the group I described were of the YES persuasion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 And you need to read "around" more closely and see the part where I said the vast majority haven't signed the declaration. I should have said at that point that the group I described were of the YES persuasion. I was just trying to give you more accurate numbers. My main point being that there are 4.2 million registered voters, not 3.2 million. That is quite a significant difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antidote Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I was just trying to give you more accurate numbers. My main point being that there are 4.2 million registered voters, not 3.2 million. That is quite a significant difference. I'm sorry, but there is not 4.2 million registered voters. 4.2 million registered voters and the estimated 800,000 make 5 million people in Scotland over 16 and that leaves just 300,000 under 16s, which I find hard to believe. The main point is that I was giving rough figures, which I clearly stated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flure Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 But on the other hand a high turnout means that a lot of folk who normally don't vote will have decided to make the effort this time. I would like to think that most of them will be making the effort because they want change. Consider these people who will vote this time who don't normally. Who are they? Well, there might be 160000 - 200000 16/17 year-olds who have never voted before. That leaves, what, half a million others? Now, these people usually can't get motivated to get up off their collective arses to go to vote in Holyrood or Westminster elections. Why is that? It might be because that they don't see the point in voting becuause, well, nothing ever changes? Are these people who normally can't be motivated to get up off their arses to vote, going to be motivated to get up off their arses to go to vote to maintain a system within which they normally can't be motivated to get up off their arses to go to vote? I don't think so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antidote Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I was just trying to give you more accurate numbers. My main point being that there are 4.2 million registered voters, not 3.2 million. That is quite a significant difference. Full apologies to you. I stand corrected. I heard on the radio today that there was indeed 4.2 million registered voters. Don't get me wrong I still believe that the amounts still seem strange, but I am a man of principle and I have heard the same numbers you have quoted today so I will meekly remove myself from this argument and bow to your better knowledge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 I'm sorry, but there is not 4.2 million registered voters. 4.2 million registered voters and the estimated 800,000 make 5 million people in Scotland over 16 and that leaves just 300,000 under 16s, which I find hard to believe. The main point is that I was giving rough figures, which I clearly stated. There are 4,285,000 registered voters in Scotland. That's an increase of about 300,000 since the last election. About 150,000 to 200,000 of that increase is due to 16 and 17 year olds. It's your "estimated 800,000" unregistered figure that is wrong. Where did you get that from? There are about 800,000 to 900,000 under 16s. Population at the last census was 5,328,000. That leaves a maximum of about 100,000 unregistered. The population might have gone up a wee bit since 2011 but no more than 80,000. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 Full apologies to you. I stand corrected. I heard on the radio today that there was indeed 4.2 million registered voters. Don't get me wrong I still believe that the amounts still seem strange, but I am a man of principle and I have heard the same numbers you have quoted today so I will meekly remove myself from this argument and bow to your better knowledge. Oops I was busy typing my reply before I saw this. Nae need for apologies. just trying to keep the numbers straight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted September 11, 2014 Share Posted September 11, 2014 FROM Todays Guardian A record number of people have registered to vote in the Scottish independence referendum, with 97% of the adult population now ready to take part in next week's vote. A total of 4,285,323 makes this the largest electorate the country has ever known for any election or referendum. The figure includes 118,640 voters who have registered in the last month alone, as well as 789,024 postal voters. It marks an increase of over 300,000 since the last Westminster election in 2012 and includes 16- and 17-year-olds who have had the vote extended to them for the first time. The unprecedented levels of registration suggest that predictions of a high turnout next Thursday – Alex Salmond has said that he expects 80% – will come to pass. Turnout in Scotland for the 2010 Westminster election was 63.8%, dipping to 50.4% the following year for elections to the Holyrood parliament Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 (edited) taken from twitter is expected timings of announcements.. no idea what the Yes rating is. What it does tell you that result will swing from one to the other on the last 3. Edited September 12, 2014 by giblet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnie x Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 looks like chances out of 10 of a yes vote. Borders 0 Dundee 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donaldo87 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 With Dundee being a 9 and Borders a 0 i'd say thats the chance of a yes majority Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 ##in Borders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 By the looks of it, it'll come down to who gets the most votes out of Glasgow/Edinburgh/Aberdeen. The 'Yes rating' for these 3 cities combined is only 12/30. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The list is a bit weird. 10 for Clackmannanshire? Just a 4 for Aberdeen? Hmmm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The list is a bit weird. 10 for Clackmannanshire? Just a 4 for Aberdeen? Hmmm. They hate Aberdeen. F*ckin list must have been compiled by Olas... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donaldo87 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Slow day in the office so I knocked up a little simple spreadsheet based on 4,000,000 votes evenly spread and a 5 rating = 50/50 and every point up or down being 4% i.e Borders is 30% 70% and Dundee being 66% 34% And the results are...... 50.28% YES 49.72% NO Michty me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redz Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 They hate Aberdeen. F*ckin list must have been compiled by Olas... Was there a big crowd watching him compile it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The list is a bit shit (sorry!). The Outer Hebs are a stick on 10. prediction is 65% Yes. would be disappointed if it isn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bajin Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 In a completely scientifically rigourous manner with no room for argument, if you add up all those numbers you get a total Yes percentage of 50.37% Independence is therefore as good as guaranteed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 The Weegies will decide this referendum. So there is no point staying up all night listening biased BBC pish. Just set your alarm clock for 0430 and get up then to see what they have decided. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave78 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 WibbleWobble's post in this thread was also useful for predicting the national result from how each local authority has voted. Well worth a read - http://tartanarmyboard.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=180&p=2488 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donaldo87 Posted September 12, 2014 Share Posted September 12, 2014 Oh and according to mine we'll take the lead after Perth declares and never look back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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