Rossy Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 As it says on the tin. Politically, anyone care to hazard a guess at what will happen...short,medium and long term ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killiefaetheferry Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Agent McTernan returns to Tory headquarters. Jobs a good 'un. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The ball is in Cameron's court. Let's see what he says. The people of Scotland have spoken loud and clear. The only thing that will slow this momentum is FFA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Bob Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 It's got to be an offer from Cameron of FFA for EVEL... except we'll still have Trident, companies based in England won't pay tax in Scotland, and the Treasury will still pocket all the oil reciepts, leading to the SNP rejecting it and being made to look churlish... also on the cards is an EU referendum where Cameron gets SNP, Labour, etc to do all his campaigning for him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derekfaejapan Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Anyone heard from Scunnered? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Tom Hunter has suggested Cameron offer Salmond the secretary of state for Scotland post in his new cabinet. They need to inject some 'legitimacy' to rule Scotland into their cabinet and by offering it ,it would put the ball back in the SNP's court. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 (edited) Cameron's first statement was about 'one United Kingdom''...'government for the whole UK' etc etc. That doesn't suggest to me that he's thinking about going down the Federal road. Edited May 8, 2015 by Rossy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goozay Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Nothing much initially, keep an eye on the SNP's manifesto for the Holyrood elections in May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goozay Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Cameron's first statement was about 'one United Kingdom''...'government for the whole UK' etc etc. That doesn't suggest to me that he's thinking about going down the Federal road. He doesn't have to, he got Boris to do it on Wednesday http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-backs-grownup-conversation-on-federal-uk-to-fight-nationalism-10230034.html Gideon also said in the wee small hours that "we have to listen to what the Scottish people are telling us." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Union back in crisis. Can see momentum from Tories and LibDems for some federal rework of UK. The key is how Labour react to it. Given the scale of Labour's defeat, they surely can't position themselves as opposing federalism. Would be madness. Scotland now looking at another 5 year of Tories and a further realisation that Scotland is utterly impotent in UK politics. I think we're looking at about a 5 point increase in support for independence. Not enough to ready us for another referendum, but if SNP MPs work hard, pick some good fights, I think we're potentially looking at a referendum before 2020 because ultimately, Westminster will fall short. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larky Masher Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Union back in crisis. Can see momentum from Tories and LibDems for some federal rework of UK. The key is how Labour react to it. Given the scale of Labour's defeat, they surely can't position themselves as opposing federalism. Would be madness. Scotland now looking at another 5 year of Tories and a further realisation that Scotland is utterly impotent in UK politics. I think we're looking at about a 5 point increase in support for independence. Not enough to ready us for another referendum, but if SNP MPs work hard, pick some good fights, I think we're potentially looking at a referendum before 2020 because ultimately, Westminster will fall short. You can't extrapolate the vote share at the general election to support for indepence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Im extrapolating support for SNP as support for independence. Give or take a couple of percent, it's not going to be far off. And with all due respect, the thread is about what we think will happen next. I cant predict the future without extrapolating data and implications of the General Election. Fundamentally, you can't possibly think that the General Election hasnt taken us slightly closer to independence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobydoo Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 (edited) Cameron will go down as the man that lost the union. Not in the way we hoped in the referendum but it'll be on his watch. Once Trident comes up it'll be carnage. Edited May 8, 2015 by scoobydoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larky Masher Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Im extrapolating support for SNP as support for independence. Give or take a couple of percent, it's not going to be far off. And with all due respect, the thread is about what we think will happen next. I cant predict the future without extrapolating data and implications of the General Election. Fundamentally, you can't possibly think that the General Election hasnt taken us slightly closer to independence. You're making the assumption that everyone who voted for the SNP supports the SNP and Independence there will have been many that voted against Labour because their present incarnation is so shite and against the Lib Dems because of the coalition that would vote no if there were another referendum tomorrow. However one question that does come to mind is would Sturgeon have won the referendum had she been leader rather than Eck? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Dod Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Scotland is a different country. A fact he used in his way to power. Tick tock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Anyone heard from Scunnered? I'm drowning my sorrows in a bowl of coco pops! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 You're making the assumption that everyone who voted for the SNP supports the SNP and Independence there will have been many that voted against Labour because their present incarnation is so shite and against the Lib Dems because of the coalition that would vote no if there were another referendum tomorrow. However one question that does come to mind is would Sturgeon have won the referendum had she been leader rather than Eck? As I said, I dont think we're near being able to have a referendum and win. Just that I think there's been a small, several point swing to Yes since September. Sturgeon has probably won a couple of points on her own. The General Election result probably sees another couple of point swing. It all totals up. Ultimately, the Union is on life support and needs major surgery to save it. Doing little, nothing or tinkering around edges will not save it. Can you see major, radical reform coming?! I don't. Only significant, deep cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobydoo Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 (edited) However one question that does come to mind is would Sturgeon have won the referendum had she been leader rather than Eck? I think the referendum was lost on the economics rather than the personalities, although its unknown how many voted for either strictly because of Nazi Salmond. Edited May 8, 2015 by scoobydoo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobydoo Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I'm drowning my sorrows in a bowl of coco pops! I don't think there was much anyone could have done to stop the SNP this time. The other seats had a large element of tactical voting that defeated the SNP imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larky Masher Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I think the referendum was lost on the economics rather than the personalities, although its unknown how many voted for either strictly because of Nazi Salmond. There weren't anyeconomics in the referendum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErsatzThistle Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I'd like to be present when Dave and Betty meet for lunch at Buckingham Palace.".....I'm afraid that awful Salmond chap is back ma'am and this new MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire South looks a right bloody handful !...." "....I'm warning you now Dave my lad, if they try to take Balmoral off me I'm declaring an absolute monarchy...." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Dod Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 The fact of it is that 1.4m voted SNP. Yes all together was 1.6m off a much bigger turnout. Make your own conclusions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 However one question that does come to mind is would Sturgeon have won the referendum had she been leader rather than Eck? I asked myself that outloud about 02.00 this morning. As has been pointed out, I don't think it would have made a difference to the outcome as the economic case simply wasn't made. However....maybe Sturgeon would have approached things differently and would have been more persuasive. Much less polarising. We'll find out when the 2nd referendum comes around.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Dod Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Obviously not better ####in together after all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 I don't think there was much anyone could have done to stop the SNP this time. The other seats had a large element of tactical voting that defeated the SNP imo. No arguments here. As my good friend Baby Cove has just said to me, "At least all the evil ones went too". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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