thorbotnic Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 It isn't looking like it's going to respect the result of this one (more powers in the event of a 'No' vote). I don't see how they could not 'agree' to respect the result of a vote for self-determination in any case. See Spain's current desperation to stop the Catalonian referendum even happening as they know they'll be crucified if they don't accept the 'Yes' vote there. They "ruled out" a currency union for this one, so the currency options will be the same in any case. We'll also know exactly what their strategy is and be able to plan accordingly, and the grassroots organisations don't seem to be in a hurry to go anywhere, so hopefully will still be about come the next one. If anyone's not respecting the result of this one, it's people who want to call a second referendum a mere 3 years down the line. FTR, I don't think that the UK govt will deliver all that they promised (whatever that actually was) and that that will form a good argument for a second vote on indy. I think you'll need to wait at least until the 2020 - 2024 Scottish Parliament session, though - and more than that if the SNP forms a majority government following the 2016 elections. While there's nothing that the UK could do to stop a Scottish state being formed without an agreement, it would obviously be able to refuse to share assets or block EU membership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Back to opinion polling for a second - the last four YouGov polls (total Scotland base - 1,025) have shown the average lead for the SNP over Labour for 2015 at 17%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilScotsman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 If anyone's not respecting the result of this one, it's people who want to call a second referendum a mere 3 years down the line. FTR, I don't think that the UK govt will deliver all that they promised (whatever that actually was) and that that will form a good argument for a second vote on indy. I think you'll need to wait at least until the 2020 - 2024 Scottish Parliament session, though - and more than that if the SNP forms a majority government following the 2016 elections. While there's nothing that the UK could do to stop a Scottish state being formed without an agreement, it would obviously be able to refuse to share assets or block EU membership. Not in 2020 they won't! Nobody mentioned 3 years, at least not in the post to which you directly responded, starting this little discussion off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorbotnic Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Not in 2020 they won't! Nobody mentioned 3 years, at least not in the post to which you directly responded, starting this little discussion off. iainmac1, on 01 Oct 2014 - 10:54 AM, said: I agree with that plan on principle but if there is a majority of independence supporting MSP's then a 2020 referendum is too late. That would be a 4 year campaign which is too long and people couldn't go through that again. 2017 would be my preference. No chance of UK leaving the EU, in my opinion. Referendums on big constitutional issues usually result in a vote for the status quo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilScotsman Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 iainmac1, on 01 Oct 2014 - 10:54 AM, said: No chance of UK leaving the EU, in my opinion. Referendums on big constitutional issues usually result in a vote for the status quo. On that we disagree. Given the fact that most of the Tory party think Cameron is some kind of Trotskyite monster, that hardly anyone actually understands how European legislation works, plus the unbelievable amount of airtime Farage and his rag-tag bunch of racists, homophobes and mysoginists get in the mainstream media, I can't see anything other than an in/out referendum in 2017 with the result being 'Out'. The post I quoted of yours in my first reply was quoting giblet, not iainmac1. Anyway, doesn't really matter, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Agree there. As mentioned before all talk of an imminent referendum should be canned until opinion polls are consistently showing 60% plus in favour of independence.... The opinion polls will never show 60% plus in favour of independence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 The opinion polls will never show 60% plus in favour of independence. Even SNP commissioned ones? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Even SNP commissioned ones? If they restricted it to Dundee only they might have a slight chance but still unlikely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 I wish the Scottish elections had not been put back a year now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 On that we disagree. Given the fact that most of the Tory party think Cameron is some kind of Trotskyite monster, that hardly anyone actually understands how European legislation works, plus the unbelievable amount of airtime Farage and his rag-tag bunch of racists, homophobes and mysoginists get in the mainstream media, I can't see anything other than an in/out referendum in 2017 with the result being 'Out'. The post I quoted of yours in my first reply was quoting giblet, not iainmac1. Anyway, doesn't really matter, I don't think it's as cut and dried as that. If the EU referendum comes about the No side will adopt similar tactics to their equivalents in the independence referendum. They even have, in Nigel Farage, a ready-made candidate to fill the Salmond/bogeyman role. Where they have an advantage, however, is that they are starting off on the front foot. By contrast, the Yes campaign in the independence referendum were always playing catch up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Where they have an advantage, however, is that they are starting off on the front foot. By contrast, the Yes campaign in the independence referendum were always playing catch up. Are they ahead? The last two polls that include NI put the leave the EU option at roughly 10% leads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Are they ahead? The last two polls that include NI put the leave the EU option at roughly 10% leads. Yes, I was meaning that the leave the EU side are slightly ahead, whereas Yes was polling in the low 30s at the start of the independence referendum campaign (IIRC). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scotlad Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Speaking of polls, Highland SNP have tweeted that a YouGov poll on Scottish voting intentions for the general election puts the SNP at 43% and Labour at 23% (Tories 17%, Green 5%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 5%). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 Scotlad - given the inaccuracies of the OP's in the referendum, I'm taking these figures with a large pinch of Saxa. On the other hand, would love to be proven completely wrong. Given that Scots at GE's tend to vote tactically to keep the Tories out it will be a huge challenge. But we really need to try and help change that mindset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sub50 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Scotlad - given the inaccuracies of the OP's in the referendum, I'm taking these figures with a large pinch of Saxa. On the other hand, would love to be proven completely wrong. Given that Scots at GE's tend to vote tactically to keep the Tories out it will be a huge challenge. But we really need to try and help change that mindset. The Op's had too many variables for the referendum that they were unused to. In WM elections though they have plenty of experience of and data. Never reply too much on them but at this type of thing they can be a good indicator. Keeping the Tories out is usually the mantra but surely Scots are going to start to realise that the degree of distinction between red Tories and blue Tories is too small to worry about? The Thatcher effect is slowly receding into the past. It may not make the Tories as electable as Ruth Davidson believes but may have the effect of cooling the 'anyone but the Tories' cry. There are a lot of other things at play, the Lib Dem vote does not appear to be recovering and they will likely again be punished for going into government with the blue Tories. Where will that vote go to? How much was actually an anti-tory vote? Will the Tories come to an arrangement with UKIP? If not will UKIP experience the same problem the SNP have had in recent years of people deciding to vote for them in some elections but tactically in others? This will greatly impact up here as Labour voters will be swayed by the likelihood of a Labour win UK wide. If it is looking shaky for red Tories many Scots may revert to their Holyrood option. Interesting times. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Scotlad - given the inaccuracies of the OP's in the referendum, I'm taking these figures with a large pinch of Saxa. the last few opinion polls were around 48%- 52% not far from final result... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Speaking of polls, Highland SNP have tweeted that a YouGov poll on Scottish voting intentions for the general election puts the SNP at 43% and Labour at 23% (Tories 17%, Green 5%, Lib Dems 5%, UKIP 5%). Sadly, they only asked around 300 Scots. The average from the last week (over 1,000) was: SNP - 43% LAB - 28% CON - 16% LIB - 5% UKIP - 4% GRN - 3% Others - 1% Eitherway - the SNP seem to have a massive lead. Watch that collapse as the SNP get no air time next year, while Labour, Conservative, Lib Dems and UKIP get loads... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 Clyde 1998 - on that basis, given the massive membership the SNP now have, we have plenty of grass roots bodies to get out there and spread the message in the face of a state-sponsored media propaganda machine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Clyde 1998 - on that basis, given the massive membership the SNP now have, we have plenty of grass roots bodies to get out there and spread the message in the face of a state-sponsored media propaganda machine. I hope the SNP can stay above 30% and can win Scotland. The massive membership will be needed. I just put those averages in to the calculator for seats: SNP - 43 (+37) LAB - 12 (-29) CON - 2 (+1) LIB - 2 (-9) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Of Paisley Posted October 1, 2014 Author Share Posted October 1, 2014 Clyde 1998 - that would be a staggering result. One of the greatest political earthquakes that Scotland would have seen. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't be putting a wedge on such an outcome. But hope bloody springs eternal! Would share a virtual dram with you if that came off! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sub50 Posted October 1, 2014 Share Posted October 1, 2014 Clyde 1998 - that would be a staggering result. One of the greatest political earthquakes that Scotland would have seen. If I were a betting man, I wouldn't be putting a wedge on such an outcome. But hope bloody springs eternal! Would share a virtual dram with you if that came off! You can't extrapolate an average across the country due to the vast number of people who vote tactically. It means that the picture is very different in what would otherwise be similar parts of the country. I would though put a small wager on the SNP returning the biggest number of MP's they have ever had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfieMoon Posted October 2, 2014 Share Posted October 2, 2014 (edited) From the Greens website: New Panelbase Voting Intention Polls http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/news/polling-shows-greens-maintaining-momentum/ http://blog.scottishelections.org.uk/2014/10/new-panelbase-voting-intention-polls.html Edited October 2, 2014 by AlfieMoon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 YouGov subsample (248 people) today: SNP - 47% (Last five average: 39%) LAB - 26% (Average: 30%) CON - 14% (Average: 19%) LIB - 6% (Average: 5%) UKIP - 4% (Average: 4%) GRN - 3% (Average: 3%) Last five opinion polls asked 1,232 people. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html interesting site Predicting 4 con , 30 lab, 2 lib , 23 snp In 2015 GE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 (edited) http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html interesting site Predicting 4 con , 30 lab, 2 lib , 23 snp In 2015 GE Interestingly it seems they are predicting that the snp will be the third party in Westminster .http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html Also: http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_scot.html#InvernessNairnBadenochandStrathspey this makes me smile far too much. Edited October 8, 2014 by flumax Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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