TDYER63 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Toepoke said: Sturgeon now saying indyref 2 is on the table if there's a Brexit... http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14566301.Nicola_Sturgeon___If_Scotland_is_pulled_out_of_the_EU_against_our_will_then_indyref2_is_back_on_the_table_/#comments-anchor Not a popular decision going by the comments! Am i missing something? Why is this ' news' ? It is nothing more than what she has been saying for months. I imagine she gets asked the question 100 times a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Ally Bongo said: She also appears to have ignored Marco Biagi's good article in The National which i think is spot on and below Have to admit that Sturgeon has really irked me in the last 3 weeks with some of her remarks although i realise some have been embellished by the media EVERYONE in life is allowed to do a few monumentally stupid things. We all make mistakes. Things that seemed like good ideas at the time. Endowment mortgages, Cleggmania, bootcut jeans. If your life quota of ill-advised choices is already exhausted, whatever you do don’t be a Scottish independence supporter feeling an urge to vote Leave in the hope of a second indyref. But if you are one of those creatures, you need to face a simple fact: a second referendum just isn’t going to happen after Brexit. It’s so tempting to think the Scottish electorate will have a sudden and massive change of heart about independence. If that happens my shock will be overtaken by my joy. But we all have to face the harsh reality that there is no actual evidence that this will happen. Think back to October 2012. A Panelbase poll reported 56 per cent of Scots “quite” or “very” likely to vote for independence, if they felt the 2015 General Election would return a Tory-led government. Almost four years on and we have that Conservative government but we don’t have that majority for independence. What if following that poll the SNP had committed to another snap referendum in the event of a Conservative government? Today those of us who support independence would be facing disaster. As we know there was no magic overnight revolution in independence support. There was a bounce, not a surge. Nicola Sturgeon would have spent a year calling on former Labour voters to back Yes, arguing the promise made to them that they could vote No for a less Conservative UK had not been delivered and so circumstances had changed sufficiently to revisit the question of independence. It would have been a desperate strategy and a huge gamble. A stake as precious as the prospect of your country’s independence is not thrown onto the table lightly. Certainly not when the best in your hand is a pair of fives. Surely – surely – if the UK leaves the EU that changes the circumstances under which the No vote was won? Yes, it does. A second independence referendum could on that basis be justified and rendered legitimate. But that doesn’t mean it’s any more winnable. Indeed, it would be less so. The same forces that gathered for the No campaign in 2014 would muster their strength again, drawing on the same networks and resources. But they would have a whole new argument they could deploy. Instead of rehashing the dismal campaign of 2014, they would simply ask one question of the Scottish public. Would you rather be part of Europe or part of Britain? Framed like that the answer would be an overwhelming second No. And that would be it. The independence campaign would be thrown into disarray and disunity. Recriminations would fly. There would be no need to quibble over how long a generation is because the time before this and any subsequent referendum would be forever. The SNP today dominates Scottish politics. The pro-independence Greens are also on the rise. We have an opportunity to build and entrench support for independence. The quickest way for all of that to collapse is a failed second independence referendum. Our opponents long for us to be so catastrophically reckless as to hold one and lose. It is literally the only realistic path they have to win back power in Scotland in the foreseeable future. If we are to win, we need an understanding between the grassroots and elected leaderships of the Yes parties. That those great assembled ranks of activists who want independence not tomorrow but today will not press leaders to follow a Leave vote in the EU referendum with a second vote on independence. But the quid pro quo is that those leaders must use their resources to develop the case for independence and work with the grassroots so that there will be that second vote, and it will be won. This needs trust on all sides. But it has to happen. We need to reach out to those who voted No and better understand them – especially those who share the progressive ideals of the Yes movement but were left cold by our arguments last time round. EU membership was just one small part of a complex debate that encompassed questions of industry, currency, public finances, pensions, and many more. On all of these we need to examine our arguments and develop our case. If Brexit defies all expectations and does deeply change minds, the Yes movement should be ready. But if and when it doesn’t, we shouldn’t be foolish. The second referendum will be won if it arises from the demands not of impatient Yes activists wanting a quick rerun, but the demands of hundreds of thousands of No voters that have converted and want to throw their support behind national independence. Those who have the means to hold a second referendum are wise enough to know this. Everyone else who supports independence has to be wise enough to realise they are right Agree with that. Read it the other day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 (edited) On 12/06/2016 at 10:09 PM, Toepoke said: Edited June 19, 2016 by flumax Can't cope with deleting quote function Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 35 minutes ago, TDYER63 said: Am i missing something? Why is this ' news' ? It is nothing more than what she has been saying for months. I imagine she gets asked the question 100 times a day. She seemed to have cooled to the suggestion recently, so the timing is interesting. I can only think it's a tactic to get swithering Scots voters to choose remain for fear of another referendum?... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest flumax Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 I can't see another indyref being a winner so soon. I hope to <pick your diety of choice>, that someone somewhere is considering the Faroese Greenland /Denmark option if the vote is Scotland remain / rUK leave. Faroese are Danish citizens, but not EU citizens. Perhaps England become the Faroese/Greenland Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland the Denmark metropolitan. Interestingly Faroese - Denmark is listed as nationally in the Danish passport. So following under that scenario, England would be listed as nationally in a none-EU / UK, whereas SWNI listed as nationally as UK in an EU/UK passport. Remain UK have a maroon EU passport and England another colour. English people in Scotland could choose either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_passport Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 I would rather we didnt have Indy 2 on the back of a Brexit, (2022/23 for me) however if 60% vote to stay in the European Union, and as we know 55% voted to stay in the British Union it would be interesting. How could one side say that 55% menas we stay in one union but 60% means we get pulled out of another, What would the democratic will of the people be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 24 minutes ago, flumax said: I can't see another indyref being a winner so soon. I hope to <pick your diety of choice>, that someone somewhere is considering the Faroese Greenland /Denmark option if the vote is Scotland remain / rUK leave. Faroese are Danish citizens, but not EU citizens. Perhaps England become the Faroese/Greenland Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland the Denmark metropolitan. Interestingly Faroese - Denmark is listed as nationally in the Danish passport. So following under that scenario, England would be listed as nationally in a none-EU / UK, whereas SWNI listed as nationally as UK in an EU/UK passport. Remain UK have a maroon EU passport and England another colour. English people in Scotland could choose either. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_passport Interesting comparison, I was wondering if there were any examples on In/Out nationalities. Although the fact Denmark and the Faroes are seperated by several hundred miles of sea will make it easier... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Toepoke said: Interesting comparison, I was wondering if there were any examples on In/Out nationalities. Although the fact Denmark and the Faroes are seperated by several hundred miles of sea will make it easier... What about Isle of Manners? They are UK citz but not EU citz..... Tenereefers are Spanish but not EU? Channel Islands ? The French colonies ? Edited June 19, 2016 by stocky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 All true. Although I don't think there's an example where the majority of citizens of a country are not in the EU? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aaid Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 2 hours ago, Ally Bongo said: She also appears to have ignored Marco Biagi's good article in The National which i think is spot on and below Have to admit that Sturgeon has really irked me in the last 3 weeks with some of her remarks although i realise some have been embellished by the media Surely – surely – if the UK leaves the EU that changes the circumstances under which the No vote was won? Yes, it does. A second independence referendum could on that basis be justified and rendered legitimate. But that doesn’t mean it’s any more winnable. Indeed, it would be less so. The same forces that gathered for the No campaign in 2014 would muster their strength again, drawing on the same networks and resources. But they would have a whole new argument they could deploy. Instead of rehashing the dismal campaign of 2014, they would simply ask one question of the Scottish public. Would you rather be part of Europe or part of Britain? Framed like that the answer would be an overwhelming second No. I suspect if you were to speak to NIcola Sturgeon off the record, she would agree with much of what Marco Biagi says. I suspect there are three reasons why she wants a remain vote across the EU. Firstly, I think her future vision is of an independent Scotland within the EU that contains all the nations of these islands. Secondly, for a future Indyref, both Scotland and the rUK being in the EU nullifies a lot of the scare stories since things like single market, freedom of movement would be guaranteed - the counter-argument is that Scotland would not become part of the EU, which is laughable, however more work needs to be done to improve the arguments against that. Finally, I suspect she realises, as Marco Biagi is stating above, that the battleground that a second referendum would be fought on in this scenario would not be one they would choose and is probably not one they would be confident of winning - of course a lot would come down to public opinion and how "outraged" people were at the result and how the cards fall following a vote for BRexit. Of course, if she were to publicly admit to the last point, she'd be hung out to dry by the media, the opposition and by fundamentalist parts of the independence movement. I suspect her primary objective will be to hold a second referendum when it can be won and she realises that's not the case now. Its easy for Marco Biagi to say this of course as he's now out of politics but I'd be amazed if his views differ wildly from the views of the SNP leadership and who knows, he might even have been encouraged to write this piece. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Toepoke said: She seemed to have cooled to the suggestion recently, so the timing is interesting. I can only think it's a tactic to get swithering Scots voters to choose remain for fear of another referendum?... I think she probably is still cool towards it. I do agree it could be a tactic for scottish voters to choose ' remain ' though possibly more a tactic by the pro EU media than the SNP. I dont know the Heralds stance on Brexit but its interesting than none of the pro Brexit papers have run with this. Normally the Mail would have anything to do with Indyref2 screaming from its front page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flora MaDonald Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Brewer nearly had a fit interviewing Nicola this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Return of Yermaw Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Toepoke said: She seemed to have cooled to the suggestion recently, so the timing is interesting. I can only think it's a tactic to get swithering Scots voters to choose remain for fear of another referendum?... How would that work? The only way a referendum would be called again would be in the likelihood of Scotland voting to remain and rUK to exit. Therefore why would she be looking for swithering Scots to vote remain? if those swithering Scots are fearful of another indy ref then going by the polls they should be looking to vote leave...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TDYER63 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 12 minutes ago, Return of Yermaw said: How would that work? The only way a referendum would be called again would be in the likelihood of Scotland voting to remain and rUK to exit. Therefore why would she be looking for swithering Scots to vote remain? if those swithering Scots are fearful of another indy ref then going by the polls they should be looking to vote leave...... If you were to go by the polls, in Scotland the 'in' campaign is still a reasonable bit ahead, so it would be quite an effort to turn this into a majority for 'leave' . Throughout the UK it seems to be much tighter and therefore the more scots that vote ' remain' the higher the chances of the uk remaining in the EU and avoiding indyref2 for the time being. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewolf_1980 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 I've received 3 phone calls from polling companies in the last week asking how I intend to vote (I've already postal voted to remain). One of the callers responded with "Good" when I told them I had voted to remain. I suspect that the Remainers are starting to get a tad nervous... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Return of Yermaw Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 35 minutes ago, TDYER63 said: If you were to go by the polls, in Scotland the 'in' campaign is still a reasonable bit ahead, so it would be quite an effort to turn this into a majority for 'leave' . Throughout the UK it seems to be much tighter and therefore the more scots that vote ' remain' the higher the chances of the uk remaining in the EU and avoiding indyref2 for the time being. That's certainly one way of looking at it. However ultimately I would suggest that even if everyone in Scotland voted remain, the outcome will solely be dictated by England and the traditional "middle-ground" voter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Return of Yermaw Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 34 minutes ago, thewolf_1980 said: I've received 3 phone calls from polling companies in the last week asking how I intend to vote (I've already postal voted to remain). One of the callers responded with "Good" when I told them I had voted to remain. I suspect that the Remainers are starting to get a tad nervous... what do you feel would have been a more appropriate response than "good" that would not have given rise to your suspicions? "erse" "whatever" "ya dancer" "interesting" "you sure?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewolf_1980 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 17 minutes ago, Return of Yermaw said: what do you feel would have been a more appropriate response than "good" that would not have given rise to your suspicions? "erse" "whatever" "ya dancer" "interesting" "you sure?" I was more surprised that a pollster from Ipsos Mori would have shown such subjectivity in the first place. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 57 minutes ago, thewolf_1980 said: I was more surprised that a pollster from Ipsos Mori would have shown such subjectivity in the first place. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it though. How do you know it was a pollster form Ipsos Mori? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deecie Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, Orraloon said: How do you know it was a pollster form Ipsos Mori? By dialling 1471. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 1 minute ago, deecie said: By dialling 1471. Did they phone you as well? Must be getting desperate, right enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewolf_1980 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 13 minutes ago, Orraloon said: How do you know it was a pollster form Ipsos Mori? Because, funnily enough, when they phoned me, I answered with the ubiquitous "hello" and they responded by saying something along the lines of, "hello there, it's Jimmy McShoogle from Ipsos Mori here". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 1 minute ago, thewolf_1980 said: Because, funnily enough, when they phoned me, I answered with the ubiquitous "hello" and they responded by saying something along the lines of, "hello there, it's Jimmy McShoogle from Ipsos Mori here". I'm in Nigeria and I've got £1 million waiting for you. Send me 10K and you bank details and I'll transfer it to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewolf_1980 Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 Just now, Orraloon said: I'm in Nigeria and I've got £1 million waiting for you. Send me 10K and you bank details and I'll transfer it to you. They asked me for my voting intentions in a referendum, not my NI number or bank details. Had they asked for those, my suspicions may have been more aroused... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deecie Posted June 19, 2016 Share Posted June 19, 2016 18 minutes ago, Orraloon said: Did they phone you as well? Must be getting desperate, right enough. Is 1471 even still a thing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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