Bristolhibby Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just shows how much the old codgers shafted us. And there's only one way they are heading. J Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ashcroft's post referendum poll http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf Thank you kindly . It would have been nice to know how large the Labour sample was right enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holty Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just shows how much the old codgers shafted us. This always has and always will sicken me the most. Saw an elderly couple the other night who I met one year ago. Then they were both fairly fit and healthy but the classic No voter, (we're too poor, too small, can't look after ourselves, lose our pensions, fought together in the war etc etc) a year on they are both holding each other up, near crippled and will probably be 6 feet under before this year is out. These were the people who decided our countries future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I like Alex Massie, always a good read with an afternoon MochaLatte. Is he not a Tory? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ashcroft's post referendum poll http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf also shows that 25% of people voted NO because ethey believed Scotland would get substantial more powers. Another Figure that the Scotbut's refuse to accept. Before the Ref I always believed that the Hardcore Uniionist vote was around 25 - 30% billy brit NAWS that no fact would ever change, The Indy at any cost guys were around 30-35 % , now 45% The other 30%ish are devo max, one way or the other guys, so the NAWS won more of these guys over with the scares and the fear stories. 25% of them, that's around 400,000 votes, Yes only needed 192.000 more to win, so these people were swayed by the ' more powers for Scotland' stance, ie the VOW.... That's just my analysis.... Alls changed now...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Is he not a Tory? I'm not sure? From the tone of his articles he comes across as Liberal, but to what degree I'm not sure. Even if he was he is an excellent blogger/journalist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flora MaDonald Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 He's an out and out Tory, like his faither. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 He's an out and out Tory, like his faither. I like him. Expect to see him writing for Wings shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Bob Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 also shows that 25% of people voted NO because ethey believed Scotland would get substantial more powers. Another Figure that the Scotbut's refuse to accept. Before the Ref I always believed that the Hardcore Uniionist vote was around 25 - 30% billy brit NAWS that no fact would ever change, The Indy at any cost guys were around 30-35 % , now 45% The other 30%ish are devo max, one way or the other guys, so the NAWS won more of these guys over with the scares and the fear stories. 25% of them, that's around 400,000 votes, Yes only needed 192.000 more to win, so these people were swayed by the ' more powers for Scotland' stance, ie the VOW.... That's just my analysis.... Alls changed now...... That's my take on the pre-referendum situation too. Around 1/3 Brit nat, 1/3 devo max, 1/3 Scot nat. Maybe slightly more on the devo maxers and slightly less on the Brit nats. It was always going to be a fight for the devo maxers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I still think this Ashcroft geezer is at it. Opinion polls are designed to influence behaviour, not to measure it. I think SNP will get no more than 15 to 20 seats. Hope I'm wrong. There are probably between 500,000 and a million natural Tory voters in Scotland. These are the folk Ashcroft is hoping will determine how many seats SNP get. In most elections most of these Tories don't bother to vote because they know a Tory wont get in. These polls are designed to scare them into thinking SNP are on a landslide, so that they will get off their erses and try to stop them. They will vote for anybody to try to keep SNP out. This is the gamble Labour took with electing Murphy. Tories wont mind voting for him as he is as right wing as they are. I can see SNP doing well in constituencies where there is a 3 or 4 way split but where it is a straight race between Labour and SNP the Tories will get out do what they can to keep SNP out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 He's an out and out Tory, like his faither. Right enough Scunnered is a Stalinist after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I still think this Ashcroft geezer is at it. Opinion polls are designed to influence behaviour, not to measure it. I think SNP will get no more than 15 to 20 seats. Hope I'm wrong. There are probably between 500,000 and a million natural Tory voters in Scotland. These are the folk Ashcroft is hoping will determine how many seats SNP get. In most elections most of these Tories don't bother to vote because they know a Tory wont get in. These polls are designed to scare them into thinking SNP are on a landslide, so that they will get off their erses and try to stop them. They will vote for anybody to try to keep SNP out. This is the gamble Labour took with electing Murphy. Tories wont mind voting for him as he is as right wing as they are. I can see SNP doing well in constituencies where there is a 3 or 4 way split but where it is a straight race between Labour and SNP the Tories will get out do what they can to keep SNP out. As far as local canvassing is concerned for my constituency, this far out from 2010 Labour canvassers were canvassing a 30 point lead over 2nd placed Conservatives. Now they're polling 50-50 with SNP, which is a remarkable swing given they were 3rd in 2010. SNP canvassers claim to be canvassing 60% for them, I'm not saying that's untrue... But it does remind me of the Indyref were we were canvassing 60% Yes while No always maintained they were canvassing 50-50. It was 51-49 No on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Right enough Scunnered is a Stalinist after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) I still think this Ashcroft geezer is at it. Opinion polls are designed to influence behaviour, not to measure it. I think SNP will get no more than 15 to 20 seats. Hope I'm wrong. There are probably between 500,000 and a million natural Tory voters in Scotland. These are the folk Ashcroft is hoping will determine how many seats SNP get. In most elections most of these Tories don't bother to vote because they know a Tory wont get in. These polls are designed to scare them into thinking SNP are on a landslide, so that they will get off their erses and try to stop them. They will vote for anybody to try to keep SNP out. This is the gamble Labour took with electing Murphy. Tories wont mind voting for him as he is as right wing as they are. I can see SNP doing well in constituencies where there is a 3 or 4 way split but where it is a straight race between Labour and SNP the Tories will get out do what they can to keep SNP out. good post the Tories might also be voting SNP to keep Labour out, Lets say 750,000 Tory voters in Scotland., They are re energised because Liebour gave them hope and faith during the Indyref.. So the Tories are back,I think they will take 1 or 2 seats. 1.6 million voters voted YES.. most will go to SNP.. so that leaves 1,25 mill votes if turnout is as high as the Ref, but it wont be. say its 1m, left. 90,000 greens, 300,000 libsm the rest Liebour,600,.000 aagghh ma heids bursting, I have no idea.... lost the point and the plot sorry I still thing the max SNP will get is 25....... was 20 last month........ Edited March 5, 2015 by stocky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 good post I have no idea.... Nooooooo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stocky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 good post I have no idea Nooooooo! aye that's about right.... :ok: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
littleboyblue Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I've not read Alex Massie's piece yet but get his general point about Yes voters and Unionist parties. I saw McWhirter saying it could all be explained quite simply as the Indyref leading to people applying their Holyrood voting behaviour to a WM election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 aye that's about right.... :ok: I'm going to tell you this because I love you. If you use terms such as 'Liebour', 'Red Tories' and 'Wastemonster'... No one will ever take you seriously, except the already converted. You very well may have made excellent points, but I didn't read your posts as they were filled with foaming at the mount nonsense such as above. Floating voters and No voters will do the same Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm going to tell you this because I love you. If you use terms such as 'Liebour', 'Red Tories' and 'Wastemonster'... No one will ever take you seriously, except the already converted. You very well may have made excellent points, but I didn't read your posts as they were filled with foaming at the mount nonsense such as above. Floating voters and No voters will do the same You're right about Number 1 and number 3. Number 2 not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kumnio Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Tories will find it hard to vote for these people, yes they all hate the SNP, but its a General Election, so its pretty important. No one but absolute died in the wool Labourites could look at Miliband, Balls in England, and Murphy in Scotland and be tempted. I want the unobtainable, I want a landslide SNP victory. I dont know if I believe the polls that much, but 9 weeks today the country goes to the polls, I cant see Labour turning it around, they arent even a rudderless boat, they are just a floating turd of a party. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 (edited) You're right about Number 1 and number 3. Number 2 not so much. Whenever my friends used the term Red Tories, I'd always use the term Soutar National Party, they don't use the term anymore.My friends don't talk to me anymore Edited March 5, 2015 by Scunnered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgowmancity Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 There are probably between 500,000 and a million natural Tory voters in Scotland. ....... In most elections most of these Tories don't bother to vote because they know a Tory wont get in. I would agree with that These polls are designed to scare them into thinking SNP are on a landslide, so that they will get off their erses and try to stop them. They will vote for anybody to try to keep SNP out. I wouldn't agree with that This is the gamble Labour took with electing Murphy. Tories wont mind voting for him as he is as right wing as they are. I wouldn't agree with this either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wine bibber Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Can you see it too Jim...Ermine furred robes with our names on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Can you see it too Jim...Ermine furred robes with our names on The HoL could be getting a big influx of Labour ex-MPs later this year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The HoL could be getting a big influx of Labour ex-MPs later this year... Now there's a thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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