Holyrood predictions

[aaid]

7 minutes ago, Auld_Reekie said:

Are you even reading my posts? I know exactly how the system works. I never claimed it was a preference-based electoral system?!

So why are you talking about first and second choices then?

[Auld_Reekie]

15 minutes ago, aaid said:

So why are you talking about first and second choices then?

I didnt realise I was. I think the only time I've mentioned preferences was in the more general context of where I rate all the parties; ie: probably consider SNP first, Green a close second and the rest a very distant third. With only two parties I'd consider voting for, if Im not voting SNP, Im voting Green. Im not voting SNP on the list, ergo, Im voting Green. You've taken that and tried to over-analyse it like I thought it was STV or something. As I said, some folk have spent too much time analysing this election such that if someone is splitting their vote, they must be voting tactically. Im not. Im giving my votes to those I think deserve it.

[JohnW]

1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

http://www.shetnews.co.uk/features/election-2016/news-feed/12504-councillor-quits-wir-shetland-after-tavish-endorsement

 

the lad tulloch is a right pice of work,,, iv had a few debates online with him in the past and he is venomous,,, hopefullly the people of shetland will see him for what he is 

I think most do, he comes out with all sorts of guff about how Shetland would be hundreds of millions of pounds better off with the full autonomy he's wanting but when pressed on the details there's nothing of any substance forthcoming.

[scotlad]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

One the one hand you have Patrick Harvie and Andy Wightman, on the other Ross Greer. 

Ross Greer!

Somehow he's top of the West of Scotland list too.  

[Orraloon]

5 hours ago, phart said:

No looked yet.

If you're voting in Linlithgow then Fiona Hyslop will win by a good margin anyway

[Orraloon]

5 hours ago, aaid said:

I think you are probably right and even were the Greens capable of picking up a list seat in every region they would have no chance of picking up a second seat.

The other thing to factor in is that depending on the regional arithmetic, the Lib Dems could manage to scrape the odd seat in the regional lists.  I'm not being so stupid to predict a Lib Dem revival but I think they probably bottomed out in 2011.

 

i think the Lib Dems will have to try very hard  to get less than 5 seats but I wouldn't put anything past them.

They could lose both Orkney and Shetland but if that happens they will pick up at least one list seat, maybe two.

 

[Orraloon]

5 hours ago, thorbotnic said:

I think you're underestimating the effect of being dominant against a fractured opposition has in an FPTP situation. The SNP won nearly all FPTP seats in the last election when Labour was still polling 31% - with the situation now (say Tories and Labour both in low twenties) they won't win a thing. This means that an SNP list vote is a very weak vote in all regions - the Greens might not have a great shot, but you've got to ask whether the SNP would get (for eg) nine times as many list votes as them, anywhere? Unlikely. 

In 2011 SNP won all 10 constituencies in the North East region and still managed to get a list seat as well. 

It can be done but that's not the main reason why it's  important for SNP voters to give SNP both votes. The main reason is as a back up in case they lose one or two constituencies in any of the regions. They won't win all  the constituencies. If they lose a constituency seat they are far more likely than the Greens to pick up a list seat.

I predict that the Greens won't win any seats outside of Lothian and Glasgow. 

 

[stocky]

15 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

.

I predict that the Greens won't win any seats outside of Lothian and Glasgow. 

 

not so sure, is John Finnie ( current MSP) Ex SNP not standing in Highlands as a Green 

[Orraloon]

11 minutes ago, stocky said:

not so sure, is John Finnie ( current MSP) Ex SNP not standing in Highlands as a Green 

Jean Urquhart is also standing and I think they will be chasing the same votes. 

[stocky]

9 hours ago, Orraloon said:

Jean Urquhart is also standing and I think they will be chasing the same votes. 

Are they both standing against each other? Bit silly if thats the case.

I thought Jean was standing down. 

They both have a huge personal following...

[Orraloon]

17 minutes ago, stocky said:

Are they both standing against each other? Bit silly if thats the case.

I thought Jean was standing down. 

They both have a huge personal following...

I'm just going from a vague memory so I could be wrong. I thought Urquhart was standing for RISE and Finnie for the Greens. I'll go and have a look.

[stocky]

11 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I'm just going from a vague memory so I could be wrong. I thought Urquhart was standing for RISE and Finnie for the Greens. I'll go and have a look.

you are spot on Orra

Finnie for Green and Urquhart for Rise

they will split the Indy vote there.

[Orraloon]

16 minutes ago, stocky said:

you are spot on Orra

Finnie for Green and Urquhart for Rise

they will split the Indy vote there.

It's a difficult region to predict because of the potential "Lying Toad Carmichael" effect. It's not inconceivable that the Lib Dems could lose both their constituency seats but then go and pick up 3 on the list. As you say the regional "independence" vote could be split 3 ways. I am fairly confident the Greens won't get a seat though. I think Urquhart will have more chance than Finnie IMO. Interesting that the Greens picked a former SNP MSP to top their list. That can't have been popular with local activists, I wouldn't have thought?

[Armchair Bob]

20 hours ago, scotlad said:

Wightman is a class act but is he not the second candidate on the regional list?  If so, it could be tricky for him to get elected?

Yes, Alison Johnstone would have to be elected first. TBH I can't think of anything she has done in the last session, she has been anonymous compared to Patrick Harvie. And for the Greens to get even one MSP in most lists is a tall order - but I just think Andy might make it in Lothian through the people who used to vote for Margo.

[aaid]

27 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

It's a difficult region to predict because of the potential "Lying Toad Carmichael" effect. It's not inconceivable that the Lib Dems could lose both their constituency seats but then go and pick up 3 on the list. As you say the regional "independence" vote could be split 3 ways. I am fairly confident the Greens won't get a seat though. I think Urquhart will have more chance than Finnie IMO. Interesting that the Greens picked a former SNP MSP to top their list. That can't have been popular with local activists, I wouldn't have thought?

From what I can see the Greens have adopted a bit of a top down approach to their list selections.  A bit of upset about the invisible co-convenor, Maggie Chapman being put at the top of the NE list despite working and living in Edinburgh at the time.  The afore-mentioned Ross Greer being top of the list in West of Scotland and Finnie crossing the floor and getting top ranking.

All parties do this to an extent - even Labour seem to have got their heads around the list now - and its natural to want to give yourself the best chance of getting as many seats as you can.  The key will be how bought in the local activists are to go out and campaign and how the electorate view them.

[aaid]

15 minutes ago, Armchair Bob said:

Yes, Alison Johnstone would have to be elected first. TBH I can't think of anything she has done in the last session, she has been anonymous compared to Patrick Harvie. And for the Greens to get even one MSP in most lists is a tall order - but I just think Andy might make it in Lothian through the people who used to vote for Margo.

Based on the 2011 results, for the Greens to get an extra seat in Lothians they would have had to get virtually all of Margo's votes.  That won't happen.  They'll get some but so will the SNP and RISE (Colin Fox).

[stocky]

31 minutes ago, aaid said:

Based on the 2011 results, for the Greens to get an extra seat in Lothians they would have had to get virtually all of Margo's votes.  That won't happen.  They'll get some but so will the SNP and RISE (Colin Fox).

I dont know.

Margo got votes from the most un likely of people. I know someone who is the embodiment of Miss Jean Brodie an auld tory in everything she does, who voted for Margo as did a lot of her douce embra pals, it was her independence of spirit they admired.

None of them will vote rise. so they might vote Green

Margo had enough votes for 3 Margos to be elected, IIRC, so a guid few votes to be shared,

 

A few might go to Alison 

In our area the Greens are out more than any other party,( except snp)  concentrating mainly in Paisley .

There are some good candidates and the more good people we get the better. 

Whiteman, Finnie, Boyd, etc 

 

However having a wee look at candidates from RISE and Green, there are a load of unknowns as well. 

 

[stocky]

From Todays Poll

Thanks to strong polling on that list vote, the Greens are feeling confident and are hopeful of winning a seat in every region in Scotland for the first time. Recent surveys have put support on the regional vote as high as 10% - pushing the Lib Dems into fifth place in terms of voting intention share. The Greens' hopes of turning those list votes into seats will also depend on how well spread out their support is across the country.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14410289.Six_things_the_polls_are_indicating_ahead_of_Holyrood_election/

Edited April 7, 2016 by stocky

[aaid]

1 hour ago, stocky said:

I dont know.

Margo got votes from the most un likely of people. I know someone who is the embodiment of Miss Jean Brodie an auld tory in everything she does, who voted for Margo as did a lot of her douce embra pals, it was her independence of spirit they admired.

None of them will vote rise. so they might vote Green

Margo had enough votes for 3 Margos to be elected, IIRC, so a guid few votes to be shared,

I'd actually put together a spreadsheet on this - sad I know - but in 2011, the Greens would have had to have picked up 62% of Margo's votes to pick up the last second seat ahead of the Tories.   That would have been  12% of the list vote, which is higher - not much - than their high point referenced in that Herald article.

Obviously a lot of things have happened since 2011 but I think that's a bit of a stretch especially as that assumes that the rest of Margo's votes go to the SNP - which won't happen, and none go to the Tories which if your "Morningside Factor" is correct and I've no reason to believe it isn't wouldn't means they would have to pick up an even higher share of Margo's votes.

The other thing is that while there is a disparity between the polls for the SNP's list and constituency votes, they are currently polling higher on the list 47% (according to What Scotland Thinks poll of polls) than the 44% they achieved in 2011.  So there doesn't seem to be much evidence of any leakage from SNP to Green or other party in the list.  In reality, there will be some who voted SNP in 2011 now looking at alternatives but that is probably more than made up for by people who voted Labour and are now planning to vote SNP.

If I had to bet on it now, I'd say Lothians List would be 3 Labour, 2 Tory, 1 Green and 1 Lib Dem.   Lib Dems would pick up the final list seat but it would close between them and the Tories and Labour.  SNP have a better chance of picking it up than Greens.

Edited April 7, 2016 by aaid

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, stocky said:

From Todays Poll

Thanks to strong polling on that list vote, the Greens are feeling confident and are hopeful of winning a seat in every region in Scotland for the first time. Recent surveys have put support on the regional vote as high as 10% - pushing the Lib Dems into fifth place in terms of voting intention share. The Greens' hopes of turning those list votes into seats will also depend on how well spread out their support is across the country.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14410289.Six_things_the_polls_are_indicating_ahead_of_Holyrood_election/

I can't see a reporter's name attached to that article but it looks like there might be some creative accounting going on. I might be misreading it, but it looks like that article is suggesting the list vote will have Labour and Tories  on about 20% each and Greens and Lib Dems about 10% each. That only leaves 40% to be shared around between SNP and everybody else.

[thorbotnic]

17 hours ago, JohnW said:

I think most do, he comes out with all sorts of guff about how Shetland would be hundreds of millions of pounds better off with the full autonomy he's wanting but when pressed on the details there's nothing of any substance forthcoming.

Well... they would be, right? Imagine if they'd been an independent country in 1970...

[thorbotnic]

15 hours ago, Orraloon said:

In 2011 SNP won all 10 constituencies in the North East region and still managed to get a list seat as well. 

It can be done but that's not the main reason why it's  important for SNP voters to give SNP both votes. The main reason is as a back up in case they lose one or two constituencies in any of the regions. They won't win all  the constituencies. If they lose a constituency seat they are far more likely than the Greens to pick up a list seat.

I predict that the Greens won't win any seats outside of Lothian and Glasgow. 

 

The latest TNS poll has constituency vote as:

SNP: 56% (-4)

LAB: 19% (-2)

CON: 15% (+2)

LDEM: 6% (+2)

The SNP would win every FPTP seat in Scotland with that percentage, and thus an easy majority. Do they need yet more MPs from the list? I'd say no.

[stocky]

2 hours ago, aaid said:

I'd actually put together a spreadsheet on this - sad I know -

hey  I could spend a guid few hours analysing t myself

wish I was as 'Sad' as you and could get access to that info ..

 

It will be interesting,  didnt realise that SNP are polling Higher now than they were in '11.

Aye i think it will be Labour or ex Labour guys who are teasing with their second vote. 

Would be great for Greens to be above Libs ... 

70. -snp

25- lab

15-tory

10-Green ( unlikely as they have no constituency and at a push will only get one second list seat ) so 8 really!

6 - Libs

3 - others

 

[Orraloon]

24 minutes ago, thorbotnic said:

The latest TNS poll has constituency vote as:

SNP: 56% (-4)

LAB: 19% (-2)

CON: 15% (+2)

LDEM: 6% (+2)

The SNP would win every FPTP seat in Scotland with that percentage, and thus an easy majority. Do they need yet more MPs from the list? I'd say no.

Are you assuming it's an even 56% across every constituency? They won't win every constituency. I would be pleased if they did but they won't. There will be at least 2 Tory seats, maybe a couple of Lib Dems. It is possible that Labour could lose all their constituency seats but unlikely. If they manage to hold onto 4 or 5 then the SNP majority starts to look a bit shaky. They will need list votes if the are to have an overall majority. If too many SNP constituency voters decide to give their 2nd vote to Greens, RISE etc, that will let in more Unionist MSPs

 

 

[Toepoke]

26 minutes ago, stocky said:

hey  I could spend a guid few hours analysing t myself

wish I was as 'Sad' as you and could get access to that info ..

 

It will be interesting,  didnt realise that SNP are polling Higher now than they were in '11.

At this stage in 2011 the polls were suggesting Iain Gray for First Minister...