COP26

[phart]

First known case (reported) was 20th of November to a private party.

How it progressed prior to that I have no idea and there isn't any real trail to follow that I can see.

[exile]

Covid in Scotland: 'No evidence' to link Omicron cases with COP26

[Morrisandmoo]

3 hours ago, aaid said:

If Omicron was in the Scotland six weeks ago, cases would’ve been going up, not down, even if they hadn’t identified them as Omicron. 

I don't think this is true.

If the initial Omicron case was during COP26 then the case numbers would not have had an impact on overall trend for 3-4 weeks (by my simple reckoning of course). A timeline which actually fits quite nicely with the Omicron variant arriving during COP26. 

But I don't care that much, we'll never know, what's done is done and it would have got here anyway etc etc

However, what we must all be thankful for is that all those cunts at COP26 will "save the planet" - they certainly don't seem to care about much else. 

A very simple model: when would Omicron start biting?

Days	1	4	7	10	13	16	19	22	25	28	31
Omicron Cases	1	2	4	8	16	32	64	128	256	512	1024
Overall cases	3001	3002	3004	3008	3016	3032	3064	3128	3256	3512	4024
% of cases	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%	1%	2%	4%	8%	15%	25%

Edited December 14, 2021 by Morrisandmoo

[phart]

Attack rate is high so unlikely it would have been 1 person. who passed onto to 1 other person.

I get the point though and as you say it's not like we'd have zero omicron is Cop never happened.

[Morrisandmoo]

Don't start picking holes in my model - I worked hours on that. 

The only solace I take is that usually when Pokemon have high attack rate, they are easy to catch on the counter. 

[aaid]

29 minutes ago, phart said:

Attack rate is high so unlikely it would have been 1 person. who passed onto to 1 other person.

I get the point though and as you say it's not like we'd have zero omicron is Cop never happened.

The other thing, if COP were the source, then given the nature of the conference, then it’d likely be a superspreader event. 

[phart]

1 minute ago, aaid said:

The other thing, if COP were the source, then given the nature of the conference, then it’d likely be a superspreader event. 

Maybe that's why every country has it now, the whole thing started at COP then got seeded around the world.

[aaid]

12 minutes ago, phart said:

Maybe that's why every country has it now, the whole thing started at COP then got seeded around the world.

I guess they’ll know for certain once they’re able to trace the family tree but the timeline is still problematic.  Probably more likely to be as a result of general international travel.

[Morrisandmoo]

I don't think the timeline is problematic. I also don't think we'll ever really "see". Lots of thinking.

[thplinth]

On 12/13/2021 at 10:45 PM, Lamia said:

Thy keep trying to tell us COP had nothing to do with it and I quite simply don't believe them.

Me neither. It is pathetic. As the guy Ferguson said in the quote we will likely never know but COPS26 probably seeded it here given Scotland's much higher numbers than England's at the time.

If the argument now is, I did something incredibly stupid and reckless and hypocritical but look my 'data' shows I got away it, then that is another pathetic argument.

Do the risks of infection not apply to Govan and Finnieston areas of Glasgow then? 26,000 delegates from every country in the world (including all the African ones), 400+ private jets... but hey it was totally fine and nothing to do with the SNPG and look we got away with it anyways (just trust my numbers not your own common sense) so it is all cool... 😀

They cant ever admit to any fault whatsoever... it is comical. 

edit: and I doubt many stayed in Govan so they would have been staying in hotels etc all over Glasgow and beyond. It was so insane having it and even a berk can see it. 

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by thplinth

[thplinth]

I know... in the middle of a raging pandemic when everyone has been deprived of the liberties for nearly two years trying to get it under control... let's organize a massive unnecessary social event for tens and tens of thousands of people where we fly them in from every country of the world and then have them all mix together in a conference hall for days and days... and all them are Olympic level gobshites who never stop droning on... then have them mix with the local population in their hotels, shops, bars and restaurants taxis etc etc...

If you wanted to hatch an evil plan to maximize the chances of bringing something nasty to Scotland and giving it an excellent seeding start that would be it. 😀

The whole thing is farcical clown town bollocks. 

edit correction - 40,000 attendees. 

 

Edited December 15, 2021 by thplinth

[thplinth]

Here are the number of delegates sent by country. Full interactive version in link. This was utter lunacy and beyond reckless during the pandemic.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-which-countries-have-sent-the-most-delegates-to-cop26

[Lamia]

On 12/14/2021 at 9:08 PM, Morrisandmoo said:

 

However, what we must all be thankful for is that all those cunts at COP26 will "save the planet" - they certainly don't seem to care about much else. 

 

This is my real objection. They did more harm than actual good

[Lamia]

On 12/14/2021 at 9:13 PM, phart said:

Attack rate is high so unlikely it would have been 1 person. who passed onto to 1 other person.

I get the point though and as you say it's not like we'd have zero omicron is Cop never happened.

Might have been good if we could have delayed it until after Christmas however

[phart]

6 minutes ago, Lamia said:

Might have been good if we could have delayed it until after Christmas however

Seems unlikely considering almost every country in Western Europe is through the roof atm.

A lot reporting highest numbers either ever, or since peak Delta wave at start of the year. Still 4/5 doubling times away from Chirstmas as well

[Lamia]

3 minutes ago, phart said:

Seems unlikely considering almost every country in Western Europe is through the roof atm.

A lot reporting highest numbers either ever, or since peak Delta wave at start of the year. Still 4/5 doubling times away from Chirstmas as well

All having delegates who travelled to COP won't have helped that

[phart]

38 minutes ago, Lamia said:

All having delegates who travelled to COP won't have helped that

There's no correlate between attending and omicron numbers that I can see (for countries)

Now it might exist but it hasn't been demonstrated.

I'm not arguing anything but this narrow scope. COP's efficacy remains to be seen but i've already said how I feel this is going to play out in the next 2 decades and it's not going to be pretty.

[Squirrelhumper]

On 12/13/2021 at 9:45 PM, Lamia said:

Thy keep trying to tell us COP had nothing to do with it and I quite simply don't believe them.

I don't believe them at all either and theyll lie through their teeth rather than afmor it 

[exile]

Here's another chart, from Travelling Tabby (tonight), based on Scottish Govt figures

So if Omicron is in there somewhere, where (when) would that be? The rise near the beginning of December?

Or else, if these charts are wrong, what do you think the actual rates are? What would the 'spike' look like, instead of the pattern above?

And if these figures can't be believed, why would that be?

Is the Scottish Government fiddling the figures? Public Health Scotland? UK Government? The UN?

Who is the 'them' that we don't believe?  And when did 'they' start faking the figures?

[thplinth]

Erm... COPS26 was first two weeks of November, plus then a two week incubation period... duuuuh. 😀 Et viola! our numbers start to spike again.

But on a serious note did the SNP not have their annual party conference online just a few after COPS26?

That would have been at the SECC right? 

So if that is correct why was COPS26 safe, which was a truly massive global international conference that dwarfed all previous COPSs ever held in its entire history, yet the measly SNP conference which was just a handful of locals meeting in comparison, deemed unsafe? Seems somewhat two faced and hypocritical? (Especially when you are then down there every day crawling up Joe Biden and AOC's arsehole but that is by the by...)

And was this also the same for last year's party conference right?... So if that is yes, the SNP allowed COPS26 to happen at the same venue you were telling SNP members was too unsafe for them to attend to party business, both before and after CPS26 took place.

But COPS26 was safe... oooookay you mentalists whatever you say. 😀

Edited December 16, 2021 by thplinth

[Squirrelhumper]

7 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Erm... COPS26 was first two weeks of November, plus then a two week incubation period... duuuuh. 😀 Et viola! our numbers start to spike again.

But on a serious note did the SNP not have their annual party conference online just a few after COPS26?

That would have been at the SECC right? 

So if that is correct why was COPS26 safe, which was a truly massive global international conference that dwarfed all previous COPSs ever held in its entire history, yet the measly SNP conference which was just a handful of locals meeting in comparison, deemed unsafe? Seems somewhat two faced and hypocritical? (Especially when you are then down there every day crawling up Joe Biden and AOC's arsehole but that is by the by...)

And was this also the same for last year's party conference right?... So if that is yes, the SNP allowed COPS26 to happen at the same venue you were telling SNP members was too unsafe for them to attend to party business, both before and after CPS26 took place.

But COPS26 was safe... oooookay you mentalists whatever you say. 😀

The UK hosted COP, the area was a UN territory during the weeks leading up to it. 

Might be wrong but i don't even know if the ScotGov could have stopped it?

All academic anyway, as Sturgeon was there every day basically for a photo op so she obviously thought it was worth the risk. 

[thplinth]

We had been in a raging pandemic (the likes none of us have ever seen) for nearly two years when COPS26 was held. So it is not like they did not see it coming nor had adequate time to make alternative arrangements... They just wanted to do it and be damned the consequences.

The SNPG could have said no but they did not want to and we all know why. What were the UN going to do, send in their tanks if we said no it is not safe to hold a conference at the SECC during a pandemic? It is ridiculous to say we had no veto.

The UN could have said no too but did not want to either... COPS is snowballing in size every year... it is a runaway train at this point (how ironic they cant control their runaway exponential growth). They could have used COPS26 as a model on how to do it all online and reduce the need for international travel and crucially actually cut emissions... they had two years to plan for it... did they do it... did they fuck. 😀

I think it says lot about the climate change gravy train and the coronavirus hypocrites telling us what to do and then not doing it themselves. Sick to the back teeth with the lot of them. Dicks.

Edited December 16, 2021 by thplinth

[Morrisandmoo]

12 hours ago, exile said:

Here's another chart, from Travelling Tabby (tonight), based on Scottish Govt figures

So if Omicron is in there somewhere, where (when) would that be? The rise near the beginning of December?

Or else, if these charts are wrong, what do you think the actual rates are? What would the 'spike' look like, instead of the pattern above?

And if these figures can't be believed, why would that be?

Is the Scottish Government fiddling the figures? Public Health Scotland? UK Government? The UN?

Who is the 'them' that we don't believe?  And when did 'they' start faking the figures?

Yes that is exactly the shape I would expect to see if COP26 were the seeding event (rising from December) - for the reasons I explain above.

As I also said it's irrelevant to me either way. But yes the shape fits well with people's intuition. 

[Morrisandmoo]

15 hours ago, Lamia said:

This is my real objection. They did more harm than actual good

Some of the wealthiest people in the world gathered together and did more harm than good. Shock headline. 

Somebody asked me, I think it was Phart, why I don't take this stuff seriously and don't proactively voice support for climate action or whatever. And the reason is - when you have the bad guys, the rich guys and the left side of the internet all violently agreeing with each other (they don't think they agree, they think the are on different sides - but they do agree and they are on the same side) - then I don't need to weigh in to also agree. 

You've got every company in the world lining up to pledge net zero, but not one pledging to end poverty. 

If those 40,000 delegates and the protesters cheering them on (with their silver spoons) would have turned up in Glasgow and pledged to share their (and their companies) wealth equally with the rest of the world then poverty (adult and child) would have been eradicated. Now 16th December 2021. Nobody would be hungry. 

But they didn't. They all believe in the wrong things. The bad guys always did, but now the political left do too. 

An unnecessary rant /

[phart]

I never asked you, I pointed out a logical inconsistency in your position, regarding how caring for people was weighted different depending on how it could be used as a rhetorical device and what your position on it was.

For instance don't want covid passports, therefore weight people high, don't like climate change weight people lower.

I wasn't aksing anything, I knew the answer I was pointing it out.