Scotland vs Malta

[Toepoke]

1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

We should have been going for more goals in the last part of both the last two games. Especially the Lithuania game as they could also count in decided worst runner up.

We had nearly 50 attempts on goal over the last 2 games!

[Orraloon]

4 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

We had nearly 50 attempts on goal over the last 2 games!

Our basic shityness in front of goal and our lack of urgency getting forward in the last 20 minutes of games, that we have already won, are two very separate issues.

 

[mattywin]

Forrest and Phillips need to get pumped out the starting line-up.

Certainly both playing together is too much of a liability

[PapofGlencoe]

Thought Ritchie had a poor game.  Lost the ball constantly.  Thought Forrest was no standout either bad or good. Seems to be a bit of a scapgoat for club and country.

The two Centre halfs weren't troubled but you can tell their positioning was poor when Malta ever had the audacity to cross the halfway line.  

If Griffiths gets injured and we're relying on Berra and Mulgrew at CH 

For all his faults Big Hanley's positioning is superior to both the above.

Edited September 6, 2017 by PapofGlencoe

[stocky]

3 hours ago, Toepoke said:

We had nearly 50 attempts on goal over the last 2 games!

and 5 goals 

1 goal for every `10 shots ..

 

is that good?  

 

[CTV]

On ‎05‎/‎09‎/‎2017 at 0:57 PM, Shed_Tartan_Army_Yeah said:

Goal difference is still a major part of this group if we draw the Slovenia game. I thought the team and management would have worked that out but the intensity seemed to drop towards the end of the game which was frustrating.

 

I really hope this doesn't happen but if you presume England win their remaining games and Malta lose their remaining games:

If we beat Slovakia (by 1 goal) and draw with Slovenia we end up on same points as Slovakia - we drop to third on goal difference by 3 goals....

 

Goal difference is very unlikely to matter if we end up on the same points as Slovakia.  The teams are separated by the head-to-head results first.  Unless we beat them 3-0, goal difference won't come in to consideration. 

It's why we need to win both games.  A win vs Slovakia and a draw vs Slovenia will put us on 18pts, which is where Slovakia will finish after beating Malta in their last game. In that scenario we would also have the worry of missing out as the worst runner-up, even if we had somehow managed to beat Slovakia 4-0 to finish second, for example.  Now, even by our usual standards that really would be a kick in the baws...

[Toepoke]

20 minutes ago, CTV said:

Goal difference is very unlikely to matter if we end up on the same points as Slovakia.  The teams are separated by the head-to-head results first.  Unless we beat them 3-0, goal difference won't come in to consideration.

No goal difference is the first tie breaker, head to head is only considered if it's level on goal difference and goals scored.

 

 

42 minutes ago, PapofGlencoe said:

Thought Ritchie had a poor game.

Aye, he was posted missing the whole night

 

[magicTs]

 

Goal difference is unlikely to have any bearing on things and certainly not on the group itself as we have to win both games anyway meaning that whilst we can finish on the same points as Slovakia it would mean our group is highly likely to have the least points for a 2nd place team. It could only come into play if all groups finished on at least 14pts (unlikely)  and the goal difference against Malta would not matter in any case in that event as the results against the 6th place team drop off. So those saying we should have gone for more goals against Malta are completely misinformed!

It really now comes down to this, with the massive caveat we need to win both our games. If we do that Wales and Bosnia will also have to win both their games.

 

Bosnia play Belgium at home and Estonia away.

Wales play Georgia away and Rep of Ireland at home.

 

If we were to win both our games and either of them fail to win both their matches then we would be guaranteed a play off spot. If all 3 of us were to win both games then there are still other possibilities which would see no 2nd place team in a group reach 14pts:

 

- Sweden lose in Holland leaving them on only 13pts.

- Northern Ireland lose at home to Germany and away to Norway leaving them on only 13pts.

- Iceland lose in Turkey leaving them on only 13pts, Turkey then fail to win in Finland leaving them on either 11 or 12pts and the Ukraine fail to beat Croatia leaving them on 11 or 12pts.

 

In short we would have to be massively unlucky to win both games and see all these things conspire against us.

Edited September 6, 2017 by magicTs

[CTV]

30 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

No goal difference is the first tie breaker, head to head is only considered if it's level on goal difference and goals scored.

 

 

Fair play, I was wrong on that point.  I had misread the below from the FIFA regulations.  It's only if there's a dead heat on just about everything else that the head-to-head comes in to it.

"6. In the league format, the ranking in each group is determined as follows: a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches; (b) goal difference in all group matches; c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches. If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings shall be determined as follows: d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned; e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned [...]"

[PapofGlencoe]

44 minutes ago, Toepoke said:

No goal difference is the first tie breaker, head to head is only considered if it's level on goal difference and goals scored.

 

 

Aye, he was posted missing the whole night

 

haha Philips .  I'm getting my Anglos mixed up.

[Toepoke]

54 minutes ago, magicTs said:

 

Goal difference is unlikely to have any bearing on things and certainly not on the group itself as we have to win both games anyway meaning that whilst we can finish on the same points as Slovakia it would mean our group is highly likely to have the least points for a 2nd place team. It could only come into play if all groups finished on at least 14pts (unlikely)  and the goal difference against Malta would not matter in any case in that event as the results against the 6th place team drop off. So those saying we should have gone for more goals against Malta are completely misinformed!

It really now comes down to this, with the massive caveat we need to win both our games. If we do that Wales and Bosnia will also have to win both their games.

 

Bosnia play Belgium at home and Estonia away.

Wales play Georgia away and Rep of Ireland at home.

 

If we were to win both our games and either of them fail to win both their matches then we would be guaranteed a play off spot. If all 3 of us were to win both games then there are still other possibilities which would see no 2nd place team in a group reach 14pts:

 

- Sweden lose in Holland leaving them on only 13pts.

- Northern Ireland lose at home to Germany and away to Norway leaving them on only 13pts.

- Iceland lose in Turkey leaving them on only 13pts, Turkey then fail to win in Finland leaving them on either 11 or 12pts and the Ukraine fail to beat Croatia leaving them on 11 or 12pts.

 

In short we would have to be massively unlucky to win both games and see all these things conspire against us.

Thanks for attempting to explain that Iceland group!

[Texas Pete]

6 hours ago, andyD said:

Likely important 2nd place teams:

Group D:
Wales or Ireland. Wales currently ahead, but have to travel to Georgia (who they drew with at home), then play Ireland in the final game. They've only won 1 game outside games against the bottom side. So 6 points seems highly unlikely. 4 at best is probable which would leave them on 18, which is 12 for qualification purposes.
Ireland have bottom side Moldova then Wales. Even if they take all 6 points, they're on 19, 13 for qualification.

Group H:
Bosnia or Greece. Bosnia currently ahead, but they play Belgium and Estonia, Probably only 3 points there. Finishing them on 17, which is 11.
Greece will probably finish 2nd as they're on 13 with 2 easy games left, so 19 for them, meaning 13 for qualifying.

Group E is an absolute mess, with it being very close between the top 3 and games left to play between them. I won't even hazard a guess what will happen there.

But with the likely results of Groups D and H, the 2nd place guys would be from:

Ireland / Greece - 13
Wales - 12
Bosnia - 11

We're currently on 14, we need 2 wins to come 2nd in the first place, so finish on 20, that's 14 for qualifying. If we finish 2nd we're safely above the 2nd place from both of those groups.

Sure, bizarre things could happen..
The undefeated Belgians (who won 4-0 in the first game) could suddenly lose to Bosnia.
The Welsh who have only won one game could suddenly win 2 difficult games in a row.

But these would be the (very) strange results. If things proceed halfway sensibly in the last 2 games then we're absolutely fine as long as we win our own games.

You start your post with "beat Slovakia and draw with Slovenia", that's not enough to finish 2nd, so playoff don't come into it. We'd be on 18, and Slovakia who are currently on 15 will beat Malta and be ahead of us on goal difference. It's 20 points or nothing, and if we hit 20 points then there are other groups 2nd place teams who will finish with lesser totals.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or not. ?

I know beating Slovakia and drawing with Slovenia wouldn't be enough for second but only because Slovakia have a better goal difference. Theoretically it still could be if we hammer Slovakia and they don't hammer Malta but this is very unlikely. 

If any of the top 8 runners up have less than 12 counting points then I'll be very surprised although this is of course possible in a couple of groups as you have mentioned. All but one of the current 8 best runners up have at least 10 points with at least one game, most have 2 games to go.

I was pointing out that in the unlikely, but possible, event that 12 counting points is enough for a playoff, beating Malta 5 or 6 nil wouldn't have made much of a difference as we will more than likely only beat Slovakia narrowly if we do manage to win and they will no doubt knock in a few against Malta.

If we do miss out due to goal diffference then losing 3-0 to both England and Slovakia will be to blame, not 'not going for more goals' against Lithuania and Malta as @Orraloon was saying. I don't really think we are good enough to pick and choose when we can go for more goals. 

In the context of the group, 0-3 in Lithuania and 2-0 against Malta are respectable results. Getting pumped like a cheap prossy in Slovakia was not.

 

[Texas Pete]

7 hours ago, Orraloon said:

I wouldn't put Bosnia losing to Belgium and Cyprus drawing with, or beating, Greece in "the very strange results" category.

They are by no means guaranteed but that doesn't matter, they are possible. Scotland scoring more goals in the previous 2 games would have done us no harm even if the above results don't happen.

It's the fact that we didn't even seem to try to go for more goals that annoys me. It shows me, that our management team don't even realise that it could (it doesn't matter how unlikely that "could" is) go down to goal difference.

 

I get your point although I'm fairly confident that Greece will beat Cyprus. A draw between Ireland and Wales would be interesting though. 

I don't think it's as easy as trying for more goals. They were trying. Ok so the tempo dropped a bit but I don't think for a second that Strachan said 'Ok lads, were 2-0 up so let's stop trying to score'. 

Malta are very difficult to break down and it's not as easy as just scoring more against them because we want to. If that was the case then Slovakia will just score as many as they need to against them on the last day. 

 

[Caledonian Craig]

That 3-0 score in Slovakia higjlighted our weaknesses. If you look at match stats we actually had the same shots as them on goal and had edge on possession. We were handed a heavy defeat because of our weak defence who were opened up far too easily. Also we lacked cutting edge in attack not taking our chances. Those two pertinent facts we need to improve on and since we played them we have improved in those areas.

Edited September 6, 2017 by Caledonian Craig

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, Toepoke said:

 

Aye, he was posted missing the whole night

 

[Orraloon]

3 hours ago, PapofGlencoe said:

haha Philips .  I'm getting my Anglos mixed up.

They do look quite similar, right enough.

[Texas Pete]

1 hour ago, Caledonian Craig said:

That 3-0 score in Slovakia higjlighted our weaknesses. If you look at match stats we actually had the same shots as them on goal and had edge on possession. We were handed a heavy defeat because of our weak defence who were opened up far too easily. Also we lacked cutting edge in attack not taking our chances. Those two pertinent facts we need to improve on and since we played them we have improved in those areas.

Agreed.

Same as the game at Wembley. We had as many chances as England did. We couldn't keep theirs out and we couldn't finish ours off.

[Orraloon]

2 hours ago, Texas Pete said:

I get your point although I'm fairly confident that Greece will beat Cyprus. A draw between Ireland and Wales would be interesting though. 

I don't think it's as easy as trying for more goals. They were trying. Ok so the tempo dropped a bit but I don't think for a second that Strachan said 'Ok lads, were 2-0 up so let's stop trying to score'. 

Malta are very difficult to break down and it's not as easy as just scoring more against them because we want to. If that was the case then Slovakia will just score as many as they need to against them on the last day. 

 

You see, that bit is probably where our opinion differs the most. I think that is kinda what did happen. I'm obviously just guessing here but I don't think Strachan discussed GD with his players at any point. Mainly because, just like many supporters, he just didn't know the rules. It would be good if some journo would ask him a specific question on that point, but they will probably just keep on regurgitating the same old stupid questions like "Is this a must win game, Gordon?". Daft fukers.  

 

[Orraloon]

This situation we are now in has got "Billy Bremner" and "Zaire" written all over it. The main difference is that back then we only needed to beat either Brasil or Yugoslavia. Now we need to beat both Slov teams.

[Texas Pete]

2 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

You see, that bit is probably where our opinion differs the most. I think that is kinda what did happen. I'm obviously just guessing here but I don't think Strachan discussed GD with his players at any point. Mainly because, just like many supporters, he just didn't know the rules. It would be good if some journo would ask him a specific question on that point, but they will probably just keep on regurgitating the same old stupid questions like "Is this a must win game, Gordon?". Daft fukers.  

 

I know Strachan can come across as a bit of a sack in press conferences but do you seriously think the guy doesn't understand goal difference? 

He's been a player and manager for over 40 years. I dare say he knows a lot more about football than you or I or all of the keyboard managers on here. 

[Orraloon]

1 minute ago, Texas Pete said:

I know Strachan can come across as a bit of a sack in press conferences but do you seriously think the guy doesn't understand goal difference? 

He's been a player and manager for over 40 years. I dare say he knows a lot more about football than you or I or all of the keyboard managers on here. 

I think there is a decent chance that he didn't know that the rules had changed. He probably does now, but now it's too late to do anything about it. I would like to see somebody ask him the question to see if he squirms or not.

[Texas Pete]

17 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

I think there is a decent chance that he didn't know that the rules had changed. He probably does now, but now it's too late to do anything about it. I would like to see somebody ask him the question to see if he squirms or not.

The rules haven't changed though. 

They are just different for European Championship qualifiers and World Cup qualifiers. UEFA use head to head first for qualifiers for their tournaments, FIFA use goal difference.

If Strachan isn't aware of this then he should be fired out of a cannon into the Clyde. 

[Shed_Tartan_Army_Yeah]

On 06/09/2017 at 4:15 PM, CTV said:

Goal difference is very unlikely to matter if we end up on the same points as Slovakia.  The teams are separated by the head-to-head results first.  Unless we beat them 3-0, goal difference won't come in to consideration. 

It's why we need to win both games.  A win vs Slovakia and a draw vs Slovenia will put us on 18pts, which is where Slovakia will finish after beating Malta in their last game. In that scenario we would also have the worry of missing out as the worst runner-up, even if we had somehow managed to beat Slovakia 4-0 to finish second, for example.  Now, even by our usual standards that really would be a kick in the baws...

Was sort of my original point. If we pushed to get another couple against the "easier" teams then the goal difference would be less of a worry/issue than it is just now to finish second. There is nothing we can really do about the worst runner-up situation, given our history you can see it happening though!

[andyD]

9 minutes ago, Shed_Tartan_Army_Yeah said:

Was sort of my original point. If we pushed to get another couple against the "easier" teams then the goal difference would be less of a worry/issue than it is just now to finish second. There is nothing we can really do about the worst runner-up situation, given our history you can see it happening though!

This is getting silly..

We're not going to beat Slovakia 3-0 or 4-0..
If we make it to 2nd, then goals against Malta don't count for working out the playoff teams.

you're complaining about something that wont be relevant in a situation that will never occur. You're just coming off as desperate to bash the side for something. Goals against Malta would affect nothing, ever.

[Toepoke]

23 hours ago, andyD said:

Goals against Malta would affect nothing, ever.

They will if we miss out on 2nd on goal difference.

(Admittedly other games have been more harmful there).