Clyde1998 Posted September 15, 2014 Author Share Posted September 15, 2014 I assume you cannot release a poll during the actual voting times - when is the publishing deadline of a poll before the actual vote? Thursday 7am - When the polls open. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McVinceSCT Posted September 15, 2014 Share Posted September 15, 2014 From a French point of view i really hope people will be FURIOUS to listen all English "experts" explaining how much they like and need Scotland! I hope all this media coverage will have the opposite effect and will push people to vote yes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShedTA Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 My over riding hope is that the pollsters have made mistakes. I dont know a lot about how they work out their numbers but I am hoping maybe they are doing their polls regionally. So taking opinions across all regions of scotland and coming to their numbers that way. My hope however is that Glasgow is significantly more strongly in favour of yes and that the sheer numbers of glasgow and that support mean a bigger yes impact than the evenly evenly matched polls over all. I am probably dreaming a bit and well wide of the mark but its my big hope! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal smith Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/icm-director-boon-admits-a-polling-waterloo-is-possible.25336542 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/icm-director-boon-admits-a-polling-waterloo-is-possible.25336542 I'm behind the paywall, do the hint either way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShedTA Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'm behind the paywall, do the hint either way? yeh so am I. presume it just means the polls could be way off either way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I'm behind the paywall, do the hint either way? I'm behind the paywall, do the hint either way? They've got some Professors of Sociology from somewhere who think that the Yes vote has been over-estimated. They also say that the polls could be out either way by 10 points or more. Make of that what you will... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal smith Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Martin Boon, director of polling company ICM, said the independence referendum could prove a "polling Waterloo" and become the industry's biggest embarrassment since 1992, when surveys predicted a narrow victory for Neil Kinnock in the days before his eventual defeat to John Major. He told the BBC all the companies gauging public opinion in the run-up to Thursday's vote were hoping to "dodge a bullet". The latest poll of polls, the average of the last six surveys, gives the No campaign a narrow 51 per cent to 49 per cent lead. It includes two polls which put Yes ahead. Mr Boon's comments echo the private feelings of campaign insiders, who believe the vote could produce a much clearer margin of victory for either side than the polls suggest. He told BBC Radio Four the unprecedented nature of the referendum and the reliance by most companies on relatively small online panels made the result difficult to predict. He said: "We are dependent on a pot of people which is defined, but we don't know how big it is and in my view it won't be big enough. In that lies a real danger for the accuracy of the polls in advance of this referendum." Asked if he would be surprised if the result did not reflect the poll findings, he said: "No. This referendum has the potential to be a polling Waterloo, the biggest since 1992 when the polls got it wrong. "I can't say I'd be surprised. I very much hope that polling companies do the market research industry justice by getting it at least in the right area. I think and hope the best that we in the industry can hope for is that we dodge a bullet, but it's entirely possible the bullets do start spraying our way." Of the six companies that have been following the referendum, four, ICM, YouGov, Panelbase and Survation, use online panels. TNS speak to people face to face, while Ipsos MORI use phone interviews. Experts believe the polls may be underestimating two possible factors. It is feared they may be missing a big surge in support for independence among people who rarely vote, underestimating the strength of the Yes vote. However, there are also concerns the polls are blind to significant numbers of "shy Nos," people who are reluctant to tell pollsters they oppose independence. Mr Boon said: "In Scotland now I believe it could be true to a limited degree there is a kind of patriotism spiral of silence going on. Perhaps some people think it is unpatriotic to say they are a No voter, maybe they are inclined to silence." Stephen Fisher, an associate professor of Political Sociology at Oxford University, said the polls had overestimated the Yes or pro-change vote in 12 of 16 recent referendums around the world. He also said the polls may be underestimating the No vote because of a "spiral of silence". Writing on the What Scotland Thinks website, he said: "It seems more likely that the headline poll figures are over- rather than under-estimating the vote for Scottish independence." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TA Torr Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Any word on the TNS poll due out at 5pm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_fadiator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 If undecideds are truly 2-1 'yes' and, more importantly, the apathetic who never vote get to the polls then there's surely cause for optimism. 50% turnout at the last Scottish Parliament election, and far lower in the most deprived parts of the country. This has got to be the key to it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redstevie007 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Any word on the TNS poll due out at 5pm? Aye, it's out at 5pm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TA Torr Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Thanks for that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rossy Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it showed a hardening of the No vote...something like 54 -46. But even if it doesn't, at this point it means nothing at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 About the only way the remaining polls would matter or be worthy of news was if they returned high 50's% or 60%+ for either side. The dice has been rolled already for many people and it's too late in the game for pollsters to find better ways of modelling the vote. It's highly likely it'll stay too close to call so that pollsters can minimise the damage to their reputations if they get it wrong. That said, if all remaining polls show Yes at 60%, I reserve the right to respect their opinions and share them on Pussbook. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_fadiator Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 TNS like others have a sample of up to 1000 spread over 55 constituencies. That's a handful of people in certain constituencies. I'm sure they were well out at the 2011 election. I can't say I know anyone who's been asked by a pollster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobydoo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Ipsos-Mori were within 1% of all parties in the last Scottish Elections. Phone poll only. They will bring out a poll tomorrow I think it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McVinceSCT Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I really think all British "experts" who "love and need Scotland" apearing on TV will make the opposite effect on undecided people!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 FFS given the difficulties in polling for this one would it not make sense to up the sample from a thousand? Every time it is the same 1000 or thereabouts. I'd like to see a 10,000 sample. (Get that bloke from Stage coach to pay.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoobydoo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 FFS given the difficulties in polling for this one would it not make sense to up the sample from a thousand? Every time it is the same 1000 or thereabouts. I'd like to see a 10,000 sample. (Get that bloke from Stage coach to pay.) I read an irish blog earlier where they said some of the samples were as low as 700 which somehow helped the no. Welcome back you turd. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Normally some hints about the polls by now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
giblet Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Normally some hints about the polls by now makes me think there is nothing startling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Normally some hints about the polls by now They've been pretty tight to embargo with the last few polls, I assume it's to appease the markets who have been trading by them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnnie x Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I read an irish blog earlier where they said some of the samples were as low as 700 which somehow helped the no. Welcome back you turd. The 700 sample gave a large Yes lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Survation at 10:30pm as well if it hasn't been mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jie Bie Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Ipsos-Mori were within 1% of all parties in the last Scottish Elections. Phone poll only. They will bring out a poll tomorrow I think it is. Are you talking about the Ipsos Mori poll released two weeks before the election? It did accurately predict what share of the vote the SNP would get for the constituency and regional list votes, however it also predicted Labour would do better than they actually did, in particular their prediction for Labour share of the vote in the regional list was significantly higher than what they ended up getting (32% vs 26%). It's worth looking back at the final poll released on the eve of the 2011 election. YouGov predicted: SNP 42/35 LAB 35/32 CON 11/13 LIB 8/7 The final scores were: SNP 45/44 LAB 32/26 CON 14/12 LIB 8/5 So they underestimated the SNP's regional vote by 9%! They overestimated the Labour vote by similar amounts. I hope and pray that the pollsters are somehow vastly underestimating the Yes vote in the same way! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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