Dillinger Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Folk still don't seem to get that the best result in other matches is *almost* always a draw. You'd rather the competition lost a collective four points than three. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PASTA Mick Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Folk still don't seem to get that the best result in other matches is *almost* always a draw. You'd rather the competition lost a collective four points than three. Yes, but in this case the best thing for us is one of those two sides to keep losing. 2 qualify so it doesn't matter if one side keeps beating the other teams. A draw is a bad result for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Folk still don't seem to get that the best result in other matches is *almost* always a draw. You'd rather the competition lost a collective four points than three. That's correct, it "almost" always is, but this is one of those occasions where a draw is the worst result for Scotland. We only need to overtake one of the teams above us. It should be easier to do that if one of those teams gets zero points from the Germany v Poland game. It's different this time round because two teams qualify automatically. We only need to get 2nd place and there is no advantage in winning the group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Well put it this way Poland aren't going to qualify at the expense of Germany. If Poland qualify by right Germany will. Germany qualifying for majors are as certain as the sun rising in the morning. From here on in if a teeam is to throw away qualification above us it will be Poland not Germany. Just because they have always qualified doesn't mean they always will. Fisrt time for everything. They will get drawn against the weakest team in the playoffs anyway, just to make sure they are at the finals. Win our next 2 games and we will have one foot in the finals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctonjock Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I think we will beat poland ,should have won in warsaw .think the game changed when we made the double substitution and took off steven fletcher and naismith and brought on a just fit Darren fletcher and chris martin ,we were comfortable till then 2-1 up and dont think the players got to grips with change in formation. I also think we will be too strong for georgia and Germany game will take care of itself Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I think we will beat poland ,should have won in warsaw .think the game changed when we made the double substitution and took off steven fletcher and naismith and brought on a just fit Darren fletcher and chris martin ,we were comfortable till then 2-1 up and dont think the players got to grips with change in formation. I also think we will be too strong for georgia and Germany game will take care of itself Darren Fletcher was brilliant that night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_burger Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 We have put ourselves in a situation where the other results don't matter as long as we do the business. I am more nervous about the Poland game than against the Georgians. But either way, if we are ever going to qualify then both of these games are must win. The Germany game, if we beat Georgia, is a chance at glory, but not all or bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_burger Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 I think we will beat poland ,should have won in warsaw .think the game changed when we made the double substitution and took off steven fletcher and naismith and brought on a just fit Darren fletcher and chris martin ,we were comfortable till then 2-1 up and dont think the players got to grips with change in formation. I also think we will be too strong for georgia and Germany game will take care of itself I agree that until we made the sub we looked far more likely go take 3 points. Going defensive changed the complexion of the game and we were lucky to hang on. Just like away at Ireland. Why we never started with Anya baffled me. Far better when we play positive, or at least with a real counter attacking threat Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillinger Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 That's correct, it "almost" always is, but this is one of those occasions where a draw is the worst result for Scotland. We only need to overtake one of the teams above us. It should be easier to do that if one of those teams gets zero points from the Germany v Poland game. It's different this time round because two teams qualify automatically. We only need to get 2nd place and there is no advantage in winning the group. Right - we only need to overtake one, so best that they both only gain a point and both stay within our sights. That way we can hope one or both of them slip up and give us a chance at overtaking them. If one wins, they pull away, and we're relying on mistakes from just one of the two teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 30, 2015 Share Posted August 30, 2015 Right - we only need to overtake one, so best that they both only gain a point and both stay within our sights. That way we can hope one or both of them slip up and give us a chance at overtaking them. If one wins, they pull away, and we're relying on mistakes from just one of the two teams. If Germany get a point on Friday we would have to beat them AND Poland at Hampden to overtake Germany. Germany will win their last 2 games - I have no doubt about that. If Poland get a point on Friday, we would need to win our last 4 games, or rely on Ireland taking 2 points off them in Warsaw, for us to overtake them. A draw in the Germany v Poland game makes it very difficult for us to get second place. This all assumes we beat Georgia of course, which is not a certainty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 (edited) If Poland get a point on Friday, we would need to win our last 4 games, or rely on Ireland taking 2 points off them in Warsaw, for us to overtake them. Not so, as long as we beat Poland at Hampden we could draw one of the other games. We'd then potentially pip the Poles on 21 points due to head to head... Edit. Just realised if our draw was v Germany all 3 of us could end up on 21 points! Edited August 31, 2015 by Toepoke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Edit. Just realised if our draw was v Germany all 3 of us could end up on 21 points! I'll add that in those circumstances I believe we'd be guaranteed a top 2 finish, and (unless we were to beat Poland by 3 or more) Germany would finish 3rd! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastiebeastie Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 A Germany win over Poland is far better for us. We don't need both teams to drop points, only 1 and Poland have a far harder run in than Germany. How's this as a scenario ! Germany beat Poland and come to Hampden and pick up a valuable point. Probably securing 1st place in group. On the assumption wins over Georgia & Gib by the big 4 ! A likely draw when Poland visit Hampden meaning that Poland would need to beat Rep in last game to secure 2nd and a defeat would leave them 4th. This without beating Poland at Hampden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastiebeastie Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Should have added in the above scenario that a Poland Ireland draw would still secure 2nd for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 (edited) Edit. Just realised if our draw was v Germany all 3 of us could end up on 21 points! And Poland would beat Germany on HTH, we would beat Poland on HTH and Germany would beat us. It's all pretty tight. Lets just beat Georgia first then we can worry about the rest. Edited August 31, 2015 by Orraloon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 And Poland would beat Germany on HTH, we would beat Poland on HTH and Germany would beat us. It's all pretty tight. Lets just beat Georgia first then we can worry about the rest. See above post, we'd be fine in that scenario. Agreed though, keep the calculators on standby til after Tbilisi... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 If we all end up on 21 points and the HTH results can't separate the teams it goes to GD over the whole group. Can't see us winning that one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I'll add that in those circumstances I believe we'd be guaranteed a top 2 finish, and (unless we were to beat Poland by 3 or more) Germany would finish 3rd! Can you explain that one in a bit more detail please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Can you explain that one in a bit more detail please? Aye sure, the tie breaker would be a mini league based on the results between the 3 teams. Each would have a record of W1 D2 L1. Germany would have a GD of -1. Our GD could be no worse than 0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggycoo Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Aye sure, the tie breaker would be a mini league based on the results between the 3 teams. Each would have a record of W1 D2 L1. Germany would have a GD of -1. Our GD could be no worse than 0. How crucial could that late 2nd goal for the Poles v Germany prove to be?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 Aye sure, the tie breaker would be a mini league based on the results between the 3 teams. Each would have a record of W1 D2 L1. Germany would have a GD of -1. Our GD could be no worse than 0. I think it's covered here. http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/03/92/81/2039281_DOWNLOAD.pdf Is that your interpretation of Article 13.01 e? I couldn't understand what that bit meant. I was assuming it would go to Article13.01 f? Could be wrong though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 How crucial could that late 2nd goal for the Poles v Germany prove to be?! The goal against germany could yet prove to be crucial too. If we beat them 1-0 at Hampden we will beat them on the HTH on away goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 How crucial could that late 2nd goal for the Poles v Germany prove to be?! Likewise Anya's goal in Dortmund could end up being vital. But yeah it would be weird beating Germany on head to head thanks to Poland! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I think it's covered here. http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/03/92/81/2039281_DOWNLOAD.pdf Is that your interpretation of Article 13.01 e? I couldn't understand what that bit meant. I was assuming it would go to Article13.01 f? Could be wrong though. Wikipedia does it simpler for me. Look under "Format"... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2016_qualifying Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 31, 2015 Share Posted August 31, 2015 I think it's covered here. http://www.uefa.org/MultimediaFiles/Download/Regulations/uefaorg/Regulations/02/03/92/81/2039281_DOWNLOAD.pdf Is that your interpretation of Article 13.01 e? I couldn't understand what that bit meant. I was assuming it would go to Article13.01 f? Could be wrong though. Aye, OK, having read that again I think I see what you mean now. I was thinking they would apply 13a to 13d to each pair of teams to separate each pair first. As you say, they will probably apply 13a to all 3 teams at the same time, then 13b and so on. Thanks for clearing that up in my head Toepoke. That bit had been confusing me for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.5eeaf0fbe501ba3c868c32fd77caef1f.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.