Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Ashcroft are holding constituency polling for Scottish seats. @LordAshcroft: My my these Scottish constituency polls are looking interesting....... I think they're being released in full next week. Hopefully they'll start to drip feed them... I don't know where they've been polling - anyone have an idea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I thought they were supposed to be out this week. Sure they said on Scotland tonight that they were due to be out later in the week. Really looking forward to seeing them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I thought they were supposed to be out this week. Sure they said on Scotland tonight that they were due to be out later in the week. Really looking forward to seeing them. They might be. One thing that's worrying me: I'm using the Survation poll to see what the voter split by party will do (ie Labour to SNP, Lib Dem to Labour, etc.) - and it's producing very different figures than sites like Electoral Calculus. I've done ten seats so far - and the Conservatives are on two, when calculators put them on zero. I don't think the national poll seat calculations are very accurate... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've just done the whole country: LAB - 42 SNP - 14 CON - 2 LIB - 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 <p> I've just done the whole country: LAB - 42 SNP - 14 CON - 2 LIB - 1 I'm afraid I'm expecting something not too dissimilar from this with perhaps a few more seats from labour to the SNP. What seats changed hands when you did it btw? Lib dems will hold Orkney and Shetland but I also expect them to hold Charles Kennedy's seat and probably hold caithness, sutherland and easter Ross as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 <p> I've just done the whole country: LAB - 42 SNP - 14 CON - 2 LIB - 1 If Labour get 42 I'll seriously consider emigrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 If Labour get 42 I'll seriously consider emigrating. I reckon the majority of the 45 would be joining you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is the map.SNP taking Lib Dem seats in the Highlands, but Labour taking Lib Dems seats in the central belt. Conservatives take Berwickshire from them.Labour gaining seats despite their vote share dropping everywhere, it's just the SNP are so far behind Labour in most seats in the Central Belt - the votes from old Lib Dem voters aren't making enough impact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is the map. SNP taking Lib Dem seats in the Highlands, but Labour taking Lib Dems seats in the central belt. Conservatives take Berwickshire from them. Labour gaining seats despite their vote share dropping everywhere, it's just the SNP are so far behind Labour in most seats in the Central Belt - the votes from old Lib Dem voters aren't making enough impact. Truely depressing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 This is the map. SNP taking Lib Dem seats in the Highlands, but Labour taking Lib Dems seats in the central belt. Conservatives take Berwickshire from them. Labour gaining seats despite their vote share dropping everywhere, it's just the SNP are so far behind Labour in most seats in the Central Belt - the votes from old Lib Dem voters aren't making enough impact. I think you're being overly pessimistic. I haven't seen polling data from the SNP boys and girls in North Ayrshire but they're claiming high 60's... Being cynical I don't believe that for a second. The Labour boys and girls are claiming its neck and neck, at 52-48 in favour of Labour which is a bit more believable. Given Labours 10k majority that is absolutely astounding. The SNP folks are highly motivated and barring illness or death to a man they'll all vote. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamntg Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 So, the SNP poll twice as many votes as Labour but only get a third of the seats? Gotta love FPTP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Someone has picked up on this - I think I've used the wrong election when seeing how people changed votes. I'll just check my figures... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've corrected something and I feel a bit more relieved. I'll upload a corrected map in a moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I've corrected something and I feel a bit more relieved. I'll upload a corrected map in a moment. Give it to me straight doc, is Katy safe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 So, the SNP poll twice as many votes as Labour but only get a third of the seats? Gotta love FPTP. I can't believe Labour would get that many seats with half the SNP's votes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 I can't believe Labour would get that many seats with half the SNP's votes... I noted after that post that I made a slight error in the calculation - also I hadn't taken into account new voters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Rob Gibson raised in parliament that 800,000 people are in danger of being unregistered in Scotland for this vote. Many were new and first time voters in the referendum. This would damage the SNP more than anyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 Give it to me straight doc, is Katy safe? SNP Gain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 SNP Gain I liked your first calculations better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Lord Ashcroft on SkY news there hinting that his constituency polls show the SNP surge is very real. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted January 28, 2015 Author Share Posted January 28, 2015 (edited) REVISED MAP SNP - 37 LAB - 21 CON - 2 LIB - 1 Edited January 28, 2015 by Clyde1998 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Interesting point by Ponsonby last night that he can see Labour losing a lot of previously safe seats, but winning in some marginals. That would be a pretty unprecedented event (maybe UK wide?)... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Squirrelhumper Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Lord Ashcroft on SkY news there hinting that his constituency polls show the SNP surge is very real. I like this ? I Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 I say we give Orkney and Shetland back to Norway. Strange, strange people living there. The local lib dem MP could go around pissing on everyone and still get voted in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toepoke Posted January 28, 2015 Share Posted January 28, 2015 Still too much red around Glasgow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.