Update On The No Vote October 24Th 2014

[TartanJon]

Lloyds announce 9000 to go and they've found hunners more oil in the North Sea.

See details on the BBC website

[Flure]

What were Lloyds doing in the North Sea?

[TartanJon]

Make that the 23rd

To think I got paid today and it tells you the date on the front of this phone.

[TartanJon]

What were Lloyds doing in the North Sea?

Backstroke

[Flure]

Backstroke

[deecie]

Lloyds Register are huge in O&G.

[kingjoey]

I know I work for them, and going offshore Saturday.

Straight hame after Pittodrie Friday night.

[exile]

Scottish no voters have every reason to feel let down since the referendum

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/30/scottish-no-voters-referendum-labour

[Flora MaDonald]

Scottish no voters have every reason to feel let down since the referendumhttp://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/30/scottish-no-voters-referendum-labour

Outstanding article. Brilliant.

[thplinth]

Scottish no voters have every reason to feel let down since the referendum

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/30/scottish-no-voters-referendum-labour

I would not want to make it easy for folk to not read that...

Scottish no voters have every reason to feel let down since the referendum

Labour’s woes are the least of Scotland’s concerns right now. The famous silent majority of no voters is hushed and somnolent

Nicola Sturgeon began a national roadshow in Edinburgh this week, with further events planned in Dumfries, Dundee, Inverness, Aberdeen and Glasgow, where she is set to speak in front of a capacity crowd of 12,000 at the SSE Hydro.

Meanwhile the “victors” of the independence referendum have embarked on a new paroxysm of internal feuding, as the disastrous fallout to the Labour party’s commitment to the austerity union continues to unfold.

John McTernan believes that the SNP has already been “routed” and is “in danger of irrelevance in Scotland at the next general election”. But with Scottish sub-samples in the 12 Populus polls conducted since the referendum finding the following support: SNP 37% (+17%), Lab 28% (-14%), that’s some rout. In fact, a new poll from Mori today has the SNP on 52% and Labour on 23%, meaning only four Labour MPs would survive, and the SNP would have 54.

This is self-delusion at a grand scale, emboldened by the no vote. Now, stepping into the ring in a potentially damaging (or cathartic) process are the MSPs Sarah Boyack and Neil Findlay (shadow health secretary) and MP Jim Murphy, who have declared they will stand for the leadership of the Scottish Labour party.

But this branch of the Better Together continuity group are not happy campers. Malcolm Chisholm has said that if a Westminster MP is head of the Scottish Labour party “a crisis would become a catastrophe”. Former first minister Jack McConnell has also weighed in, saying: “She [Johann Lamont] was completely undermined by the decision to remove the head of the party organisation in Scotland. We have to resolve that issue [of control] before the next leader can properly carry out the job.” The trouble is that Lamont’s diagnosis of Labour’s problem – that Scotland is treated as a regional branch of the UK party – is precisely the argument for yes she’s been denying. It makes them look at best ridiculous and at worst deeply deceitful.

But Labour’s woes are the least of Scotland’s concerns right now, including its strangely quiet no voters. The famous silent majority is hushed and somnolent. The paradox is that, as they “own the media” in the words of Alan Bissett’s The Pure the Dead and the Brilliant, we don’t know what no voters think at all. In the absence of any credible alternative media we are left to speculate what they think about the raft of announcements that confirm pretty much all that was said by the yes camp during the campaign. The unionist media, that was used to hush the nationalist voice, now silences the silent.

The idea that democracy in Scotland would be undermining and destabilising seems odd now as the battle cry for EU exit becomes a full-scale home counties shriek. Just four (out of 52) Westminster constituencies in the whole of Scotland have a majority of voters who want to leave the EU. Edinburgh North and Leith charts at just 22.74%, and Edinburgh South at 23.8%. Meanwhile, in England, most constituencies back leaving. Support for the move soars above 75% in Clacton. Who are the separatists now?

The endless narrative about the collapse of North Sea oil reserves seems equally strange as oil giant BP and European energy conglomerate GDF-Suez announce a massive new oil discovery in the North Sea which they say could yield 50m barrels. If diminishing oil was a stick with which to beat yes optimism, a bright orange carrot was surely about British banks and economic stability. Yet the Lloyds Banking Group has announced plans to slash its workforce by 9,000. This is a state-backed group which is to close 200 branches, of which there are 293 in Scotland, employing 16,000 people. I wonder if they voted no?

Finally we hear from Unicef, which this week stated that one in four children in the UK are living in poverty and the number is rising sharply because of the government’s harsh austerity measures – a government that Scotland didn’t elect. So what do no voters think about all this?

Nobody knows. The 55% held no public celebrations in the aftermath of their win, and this ongoing quietism, deference and inability to articulate a political aspiration is unsettling. Maybe it was motivated by a core of late-Thatcherite individualism. Maybe clinging to the wreckage of the British state and the scraps of British identity is enough in itself, whatever the consequences. Maybe they have faith in Miliband. Maybe economic uncertainty and poverty are things they have never encountered, and doubt they ever will.

As someone who is ashamed to live in a country that doesn’t want to govern itself, I’d like to know what they think now.

And the Queen purrs on...

[Khana Lagur]

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/30/scottish-no-voters-referendum-labour

Not being a Guardian reader, I prefer the original publication of this article on Mike's own website http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/10/30/and-it-was-all-yellow/

It also has a nice picture with it

[hampden_loon2878]

I have two associates that voted no who have stayed they have made a mistake,does anyone else know any no voters who regret their decision?

[Dave78]

I have two associates that voted no who have stayed they have made a mistake,does anyone else know any no voters who regret their decision?

Fair play to your 2 pals for admitting to making a mistake. That takes a bit of balls.

I imagine most No voters will be entrenched in their position though. A willingness to change their opinion based on a new political reality is not a quality i'd associate with your typical No voter!

[exile]

Not being a Guardian reader, I prefer the original publication of this article on Mike's own website http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/10/30/and-it-was-all-yellow/

It also has a nice picture with it

If you read the tamb sooner or later don't you become a Guardian reader and even sometimes Daily Mail readers too (other than the diehards)?

Not sure what the original article is though?

[Charlie Endell]

I have two associates that voted no who have stayed they have made a mistake,does anyone else know any no voters who regret their decision?

Fair play to your 2 pals for admitting to making a mistake. That takes a bit of balls.

I imagine most No voters will be entrenched in their position though. A willingness to change their opinion based on a new political reality is not a quality i'd associate with your typical No voter!

I don't know any No voters that were swayed by 'the vow', and none of them have changed their position post referendum. Of course, they may be unrepresentative (it is not a large sample!). Edited November 1, 2014 by Charlie Endell

[thplinth]

If you break the voters down into 4 groups, Hard Yes, Hard No, Soft Yes and Soft No... then HY & HN were never going to change their minds no matter what was said or done. But SY & SN were malleable and could be changed.

They played a massive good cop-bad cop game on these soft voters - the bad cop was the relentless fear mongering and trumped scare stories and then at the last minute we have the Vow, the good cop to offer a safe passage out the 'scary' situation they had found themselves in.

Total con job from start to finish. They always had the third-option-cheat-out up their sleeve, that is why Eton Dave insisted it be taken off the ballot in the first place, so he could have it up there in case he needed. (he is not bright enough to think of that but plenty others down there are.)

[hampden_loon2878]

On the taxi home yesterday i was speaking to the driver about the result and je said to me that he has been an snp member for more the 30years bit voted no due to the lack of a fiscal plan, how many more would have been like him? Next time roon these soft no's will make the difference

[Toepoke]

he has been an snp member for more the 30years bit voted no due to the lack of a fiscal plan, how many more would have been like him?

Lord Ashcroft's poll had 14% of SNP supporters voting No...

[Cove_Sheep]

Lord Ashcroft's poll had 14% of SNP supporters voting No...

The guy HL is on about claimed to be a MEMBER not just a voter.

I would seriously doubt there were many SNP members actually voting no.

[peever1745]

Look at strong SNP areas in the North East that voted no, that tells you SNP voters voted no in quite large numbers.

[Goozay]

Look at strong SNP areas in the North East that voted no, that tells you SNP voters voted no in quite large numbers.

Only if you ignore the turnout.

The No vote was strong in certain SNP areas because folk that normally abstain from elections came out and voted No.

[thplinth]

Using Lord Ashcroft's data...

2047 sampled

of which the 55+'s accounted for 887 people or 43.33% of the vote.

of the 55+'s 887 people - 582 voted No (which is 65.6% of the 55+'s voting No) or a whopping 28.43% of the entire vote just on two demographics out of seven.

To give you a sense of perspective the 16-17 demographic contributed 14 votes to the 2047 total of which 10 were yes but they are a tiny demographic compared to the 55-65 (399 people) and the 65+ (488 people(. These two (the 55-65 & 65+'s) are ranked #2 and #1 in size.

This is why they were so heavily targeted with scare stories and this is where it was 'lost'.

Edited November 1, 2014 by thplinth

[Pool Q]

At the polling station in Edinburgh where I voted, there was a queue of about 40 people outside before it opened in the morning. I reckon 25-30 of them were 65+ (many much older) and, I swear, you could see the mixture of fear and zeal in their eyes - they were there to protect the union and their pensions. The No campaign was, rightly, much maligned but it got one thing spot on - it scared the shyte out of the elderly and made damn sure it got every single one of them out to vote.

Edited November 1, 2014 by Pool Q

[thplinth]

Taking out the 55+'s the result was:

624 Yes - 53.7%

536 No - 46.2%

1160 - 100%

It is good but not good enough to claw back the old bastards. Looking up the obesity and diabetes epidemic raging over Scotland might help accelerate some change.

[thplinth]

To get across the line we need 1024 Yes votes out 2047

The under 55+s supply 624 Yes votes meaning the break even point in the 55+'s is 400 votes (624+400=1024)

But Yes got 887 - 582 = 305 Yes Votes in the 55+'s or 95 votes short.

95 votes divided by 2047 represents a swing of 4.6% of the total vote or 10.7% of the 55+'s.

It is quite doable. But we will of course need more than just passed 50% as they will be at it again...