redstevie007 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Where have Betfair got the information from? On the thread about postal votes we've established that someone's (innocently granted) already talking about how they're looking. If Betfair have got someone on the inside we've got a fiasco on our hands, because what else is going on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Betfair say they have paid out a "six-figure sum" (telegraph) To be paying out a six figure sum, they could be losing as little as £20k - if bets totalling £80k have been placed at avergae odds of 1/4 they will be paying out £100k. £20k spend on publicity to get you 5 pages on the TAMB in half an hour and loads of yes campaigners downheartened. Surely the best £20k youve ever spent if youre a Tory party donor? Yeah press release is very carefully worded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Where have Betfair got the information from? On the thread about postal votes we've established that someone's (innocently granted) already talking about how they're looking. If Betfair have got someone on the inside we've got a fiasco on our hands, because what else is going on? They are going purely by their own exchange, no insider information. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Because you could make the argument that this could cause No vote complacency and Yes vote despondency simultaneously I am coming to the view this is a publicity thing. Would you have wanted this if you were in the No camp? I am not sure you would... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jock strap Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I have never wanted anything as bad as this............ever.............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Are they paying out full odds or paying out early on reduced odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I thought gamblers looked for 'value'? Given the polling does anyone think these No odds are good value? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redstevie007 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 They are going purely by their own exchange, no insider information. Really? I honestly don't understand how this works. Are you saying that because they're taking a lot of money on No winning, and much less on Yes, that's reason enough for them to pay out early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartanTeddy Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Surely this could be a way for folk (in the city) to launder money. Stick 100K on with your pals at Betfair, wait until the week before the gamble but then collect the 'winnings' regardless. Given a couple of huge London based bets this does seem to smell a little odd??? TT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Manipulating the odds to favour a No would be key to a fix. Like the polls they would have to be consistent with the fixed result. It is very worrying that the odds seem to bear such little resemblance to the polls and the polls to the feeling on the streets, these odds are really wild and this suggests something funny is going on. The question is why. Just to make us despondent, to enable the fix or both. I just can't believe so much money is lumping on these rotten No odds. (And the odds were even worse for No when many of these bets were made.) All very fishy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Really? I honestly don't understand how this works. Are you saying that because they're taking a lot of money on No winning, and much less on Yes, that's reason enough for them to pay out early? That's pretty much it. Their spokesman sounds confident: “If we are wrong, we are wrong,” said James Midmer, a Betfair spokesman, who said he didn’t know how much the company would be paying out. “And if we are right, then we would have been paying out anyway.” Edited September 16, 2014 by Scunnered Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Ahhh bollox I am thoroughly bored by these bookie w@nks. I am going to go by the unadulterated fear in David Cameron's eyes rather than the bookies. He is shitting himself, and that tells me all I need to know at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
silverbear Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Where have Betfair got the information from? On the thread about postal votes we've established that someone's (innocently granted) already talking about how they're looking. If Betfair have got someone on the inside we've got a fiasco on our hands, because what else is going on? You do know that postal votes are opened before the day of the polls? Did you know that people actually open the envelopes. Did not know that the opened voting papers are placed on the desk in front of you (albeit face down, you can still see the cross 80% of the time). Did you also not know that candidates or their agents sit opposite the people opening the envelopes trying to see how folks have voted in order to get a snapshot of the marginal seats. Guess what they do with that information? I realise that this is different to a local or general election but both camps will have representatives there to ensure 'fair play'. The people who sort the ballot papers have a vote & I'm fairly confident they'll be interested in which way it's going? My guess is, not everybody will keep that information to themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armchair Bob Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Apparently it doesn't affect the majority of the betfair bets, the exchange market. It is their sportsbook only, which is tiny in comparison... and pretty much entirely placed in London. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TartanTeddy Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Someone should call William Hill and Paddy Power etc and ask them if their paying out! 'Bookies unwilling to pay out on No' counter headline might be a useful counterpoint TT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonny Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Comment on Scot Goes Pop: Just a PR stunt and not worth all the fuss. I have a friend who has a big account at Betfair and trades 7 figures easy over the course of a football season. I texted him about it and straight away he phoned up his contact for VIP members, had a quick chat and called me back to say this was just to drum up business for the exchange market which Betfair expects to be very busy today, tomorrow and Thursday and has already more than doubled in volume over the last week. Apparently figures on the sportsbook are basically peanuts and have already been covered, so basically this is just to drum up interest in the real exchange market. So don't fuss over it any more. It is not a bad omen, a bad sign, it is just Betfair trying to make more money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redstevie007 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 You do know that postal votes are opened before the day of the polls? Did you know that people actually open the envelopes. Did not know that the opened voting papers are placed on the desk in front of you (albeit face down, you can still see the cross 80% of the time). Did you also not know that candidates or their agents sit opposite the people opening the envelopes trying to see how folks have voted in order to get a snapshot of the marginal seats. Guess what they do with that information? I realise that this is different to a local or general election but both camps will have representatives there to ensure 'fair play'. The people who sort the ballot papers have a vote & I'm fairly confident they'll be interested in which way it's going? My guess is, not everybody will keep that information to themselves. I understand all of that and that the ordinary people counting are naturally curious, but I would have thought that the count would remain confidential until the main polls close on Thursday night? As I said, I have no clue how this all works as i've never had any interest in politics before, so I'm willing to accept that I may be a havering drama queen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The plot thickens... Check out @ReutersJamie's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/511891154171072512 78% of Betfair customers based in Scotland have backed Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 The plot thickens... Check out @ReutersJamie's Tweet: https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/511891154171072512 78% of Betfair customers based in Scotland have backed Yes. So how the hell do we have these crazy odds if that is the case.? Also based on that should they not be paying out on Yes? WTF? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hessen Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 So how the hell do we have these crazy odds if that is the case.? Also based on that should they not be paying out on Yes? WTF? Maybe whoever is deciding this is based in England, and is only watching on TV, which we would all agree makes it look like a NO landslide Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 So how the hell do we have these crazy odds if that is the case.? Also based on that should they not be paying out on Yes? WTF? No because the huge sums down south have been placed on NO so that changes the YES odds. The odds only react to money placed and not reality (as far as I can tell). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thplinth Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I mean if they are using the exchange to gauge voting intent it seems strange to payout when 78% of those eligible to vote are backing Yes. Sure big English money has moved the odds but they cannot vote one assumes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1ANDYP Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 Some diddy in England had 800 grand at 1-8 about a year ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ally Bongo Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 (edited) Totally nothing to see here - trust me CEO of Betfair is a massive Tory Donor They get massive publicity when every other intelligent analyst says there is absolutely no way to judge how it's going to go Jackie Baillie on BBC news as i type - total yfatwitch Edited September 16, 2014 by Ally Bear Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gracie Posted September 16, 2014 Share Posted September 16, 2014 I have a money making machine, geez yer money al make yi rich Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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