Uk Ge Scottish Constituencies Chat

[saintlyscot]

Pete Wishart is defending a majority of 4379 in my constituency of Perth and North Perthshire. Given it has been in Nationalist hands since 1995 and Wishart has been a decent incumbent you would think it should be a safe hold, particularly given how high the snp are riding in the polls nationally. I think it will be a close run thing. Some things play into tory hands. Their was a large no vote during the referendum which galvanised the older tory vote. They very much detest the nationalists and seem energised. They will probably get out and vote again. They have selected an interesting candidate in Alexander Stewart. He is a long standing councillor and is extremely well known. It is a bit of a standing joke locally how often his picture is in the paper. Although a bit of a hooray henry he is plausible. Also, you have to wonder how much the snp can squeeze out of the labour and libdem vote that hasn't been wrung out in previous elections. Throw in the land reform bill which is hugely unpopular in rural parts of the constituency and it is potent mix. I get the impression the snp are throwing a lot of resources at it though as the campaign machine seems well manned and more efficient than in the past few elections. It is very much game on and Laddies 12/1 on a Tory win in this seat is generous. My gut instinct atm is a snp hold with reduced majority.

[Padre Andrew]

Don't know why you think Alexander Stewart is plausible.

The Tories didn't select him last time round when they seemed to think they could win the seat. I don't think there's any real substance to the man - but that won't stop some of the old grey brigade voting for him.

Do you happen to know if he's got any kind of party machinery out in the county areas? One SNP activist I spoke to seemed to think they didn't have much in the way of footsoldiers there to do the campaigning.

The 'standing joke' about how many times he gets his picture in the local paper is one of the most irritating jokes ever.

[saintlyscot]

Don't know why you think Alexander Stewart is plausible.

The Tories didn't select him last time round when they seemed to think they could win the seat. I don't think there's any real substance to the man - but that won't stop some of the old grey brigade voting for him.

Do you happen to know if he's got any kind of party machinery out in the county areas? One SNP activist I spoke to seemed to think they didn't have much in the way of footsoldiers there to do the campaigning.

The 'standing joke' about how many times he gets his picture in the local paper is one of the most irritating jokes ever.

I don't find him plausible but he will be in many sections of the constituency particularly the grey brigade and county set. I think they are hoping the slight bounce in their numbers created by NO in enthusiasm / activsm can help them. Not sure how this is translating into numbers on the ground but I live rurally and have had no canvassers or leaflets as yet. I know someone who will know their campaign strategy/numbers however so will get the lowdown and post asap. How do you see the vote going?

[perthTam]

Where do you see the 4000+ extra votes for the tories coming from? I think the older, rural voters already turn out a high percentage of their natural voters so I think the tories will need to convert labour or lib-dem voters - just don't see this happening in the numbers needed.

Councillor Stewart works hard at getting his face in the PA but does he work as hard getting things changed in his council ward (don't know and don't hear much if he does)? Strikes me as a bit of a rich man's Jim Murphy.

Gut feeling that it is a safe SNP seat with a similar majority.

[saintlyscot]

Where do you see the 4000+ extra votes for the tories coming from? I think the older, rural voters already turn out a high percentage of their natural voters so I think the tories will need to convert labour or lib-dem voters - just don't see this happening in the numbers needed.

Councillor Stewart works hard at getting his face in the PA but does he work as hard getting things changed in his council ward (don't know and don't hear much if he does)? Strikes me as a bit of a rich man's Jim Murphy.

Gut feeling that it is a safe SNP seat with a similar majority.

I don't see him getting the required swing to take the seat but compared to other Scottish seats their is little mileage in the snp increasing their vote imo. I can see the tories doing well in Highland Perthshire and the rural farm villages while Perth holds up for the snp. I hope for an hold with increased majority as Wishart is a good mp and it would be sickening to let them back in but reckon the snp will throw large resources to hang on with a reduced majority. Remember this has been an snp/tory marginal since the mid 70s and the majority in 2005 was only in single figures iirc.

[perthTam]

I don't see him getting the required swing to take the seat but compared to other Scottish seats their is little mileage in the snp increasing their vote imo. I can see the tories doing well in Highland Perthshire and the rural farm villages while Perth holds up for the snp. I hope for an hold with increased majority as Wishart is a good mp and it would be sickening to let them back in but reckon the snp will throw large resources to hang on with a reduced majority. Remember this has been an snp/tory marginal since the mid 70s and the majority in 2005 was only in single figures iirc.

I don't have the figures to hand but has there not been a gradual decline for the tories since the 80s with Nicky Fairbairn?

Think the majority was 53 in one election.

Will have a dig about for the historical figures later.

[Padre Andrew]

Can't see the Tories taking it, but am naturally cautious and fear they may squeeze the No vote into a Tory vote.

There was one letter in the PA from a supposed life-long Labour man who said he would vote tactically (i.e. Tory) to try and get the SNP out. Don't think enough will do that to swing it, but things are polarizing in some areas - see Allan Massie's article about four-party politics being dead, now we're down to Nationalist vs Unionist. As long as the unionist vote splits several ways that's going to help the SNP.