thplinth

FFS given the difficulties in polling for this one would it not make sense to up the sample from a thousand? Every time it is the same 1000 or thereabouts. I'd like to see a 10,000 sample. (Get that bloke from Stage coach to pay.)

Manipulating the odds to favour a No would be key to a fix. Like the polls they would have to be consistent with the fixed result. It is very worrying that the odds seem to bear such little resemblance to the polls and the polls to the feeling on the streets, these odds are really wild and this suggests something funny is going on. The question is why. Just to make us despondent, to enable the fix or both. I just can't believe so much money is lumping on these rotten No odds. (And the odds were even worse for No when many of these bets were made.) All very fishy.

I thought gamblers looked for 'value'? Given the polling does anyone think these No odds are good value?

Because you could make the argument that this could cause No vote complacency and Yes vote despondency simultaneously I am coming to the view this is a publicity thing. Would you have wanted this if you were in the No camp? I am not sure you would...

Yeah press release is very carefully worded.

There is absolutely nothing in the public domain to justify these very short odds on No and very long odds on Yes.

I warn you this might make you depressed... https://betting.betfair.com/politics/scottish-independence-referendum-betting/scottish-independence-betting-betfair-sportsbook-pays-out-early-on-no-160914-51.html These betting patterns are weird. The odd for No are so shit and yet ... "There has been little sign of the YES vote gaining any traction with political bettors, trading at 4.5 (7/2), and the average size of bet placed on this outcome under £80, in comparison to the £465 average bet for the NO vote. " (If I am honest these betting patterns make me think about all those options purchased on Delta & American Airlines just before 9/11.) Concerning...

Ahhh so that being the traditional bookmaker aspect to their business I guess (bookies are not my specialty area at all). So now I am especially suspicious. This could all have been set up very easily.

Interesting - betfair is a betting exchange not a traditional bookmaker... I am not quite sure I understand the mechanics of it fully but it would appear to me that betfair might be the ideal conduit for effecting the entire odds market if one were to attempt that.

The founder of Betfair was an MOD contractor before he left to start betfair and is the grandson of a tory MP, so it is not inconceivable this is another orchestrated move. If the big early money laid on No was only to be used to skew the odds for the campaign and could not be lost then this is one way to return it. All seems a bit funny to me.

You know thinking about it... If the early money on No was from a dodgy source (to skew the odds) would this not be a clever way to return it now before they potentially lose it on the Yes.

Did he give you indication of proportion?

Ahhh well that would mean the payout is relatively small as the odds were always so pish for No. If does go Yes the loss is minimal and that would correlate with this being a publicity move. Disconcerting though...

Surreal.

A chance to prove to the rest of the world that Scotland is brave. Nice.

That shit annoys Flure.

Are people expecting some truth and integrity from No? It has never been a feature of their campaign and its not going to make an appearance any time soon. It is all smear, spin and scare. That is all they have got to give.

I honestly have no idea why people waste so much time answering a troll. We are in magical times, win or lose. Don't waste it.

Better together remind me of an abusive spouse. One minute they are stroking your hair and whispering sweet promises in your ear and then in an instant they have grabbed it and are smashing your face off the table while screaming threats and obscenities... and then it is back to the stroking... They are mental cases.

Multiple passports, totally James Bond.

Devo make it up as you go along.

Surely not a No?

You can have dual citizenship? Wow I never knew that. This (if correct) is a great selling point for Yes (as it helps the fearties be less afraid). This should be made more well known.

I think what you are feeling Lamia is perhaps a loss of innocence to some degree. Believe me this was ALWAYS how it was going to be. We are exactly where we need to be right now, on the shoulder coming round the final bend. Come on!

The only wheels that have come off surely are on the No campaign. I have never seen anything so incompetent. Without the saturation wall to wall propaganda they would be in such deep shit right now. I am not sure they ever got the wheels on, maybe some square ones. It was so bad they then shat themselves in public and went mental breaking rules and coordinating scare stories using the City etc... During all this the Yes campaign has kept its dignity and stuck to a positive message.