I wouldn't be surprised if Norway did drop points against Georgia, especially after the result they had on Saturday. Georgia beat Mongolia 6-1 in a friendly; while that's basically irrelevant due to it being against Mongolia, they'll go into the game with a lot of confidence.
They've only lost once since October 2021 - a 3-0 defeat to Morocco just before the World Cup - but only a game against Sweden (which they won 2-0 at home) can be said to be against a side of Norway's level or higher. Morocco incidentally just beat a decently strong Brazil side, so their World Cup performance doesn't seem to be a complete flash in the pan.
I think two wins against Cyprus, a win against Georgia at home, draws in both games against Norway and away in Georgia would be the bare minimum required to finish second. Getting a win against Norway at home and away in Georgia would guarantee second, assuming Spain win all their games. Any point against Spain would be a massive bonus.
If Norway don't win tomorrow, there'll be huge pressure on them to beat us in June.