I think a win in Georgia is a must. A win v Georgia will give us a great chance to qualify automatically. However, if we lose I think we will finish 4th.
As mentioned above, Ireland's next two games are Gibraltar away and Georgia at home. I full expect them to get 6 points.
If we lose to Georgia and Germany we would be 4 points behind Ireland with 2 games to play. We would need at least a draw v Poland (and a win v Gib) to match Ireland's total presuming they lost v Poland and Germany (Ireland have already got a point v both).
No doubt about it - Georgia is a massive match.