biffer

🤣🤣 of all the people to post this.

Difficult to project numbers of infected from excess deaths. Need number of deaths from Covid and the IFR (infection fatality rate). You can have all sorts of arguments about what are and aren't covid deaths but let's not. The IFR is more difficult though. It's been estimated between 0.2% and 1.7%. 50,000 @0.2% = 25million infected 50,000 @1.7% = 3 million infected Assuming Covid has R0=3, for herd immunity you need about 70% of the population to have immunity. About 47 million in the UK.

To be fair, I don’t think cases are increasing. Less that 1000 new cases each day for five days in a row, that’s better than the previous week. Still shit, obviously, and not defending the UK govt in any way, but if we’re going to have a go at them, accuracy is essential.

I expect posters like Alan to soon confirm that the New Scientist has a long been an agitator for independence.

Threat to the public is over according to ra polis.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-53195939 I'm assuming that bloke in the jeans is actually a cop not some heavily armed random who happened to turn up. Sounds like either and argument between asylum seekers / refugees in the hotel or a right wing terror attack.

Same here. I think the difficulty is what do you do about toilet facilities.

How many times can you find yourself in awe at Dominic Raab's complete incompetence.

Pubs should be able to open outdoor spaces in the next few weeks as it’s part of phase 2. Maybe even next week. July 15 is about indoor opening, it’s the target date for phase 3.

Yeah, that's the key. I'm the same as you, hopefully it's an effect of now having a policy that everyone with symptoms should get a test.

I've replied to a few loyalists on twitter, thanking them for their efforts in protecting the statue of Robert Peel, who did so much to prevent discrimination against Catholics and helped to allow them to play a full part in British public life.

I think some of the early papers suggesting it worked were based on the same database. There’s a guardian article about Surgisphere, they look dodgy as fuck. Still no good evidence that hydroxychloroquine does any good.

Wow. How astonishingly dumb.

Not been on here so much in the last year or two so haven't encountered this comedic combination of Alan, a three year old and challenged cocker spaniel before. Interesting.

Experienced.

If you look at the breakdown, it's 35 cases in Fife. Not sure what's happened - some miscounting or misreporting that meant they got left off?

Or look at Denmark, where initial numbers were very similar, but they locked down earlier. Less than 600 deaths.

Yeah, although that website's monitoring is one of the reasons we know that.

That's one of the problems - even just the rates per million aren't exactly comparable for a whole range of factors. The best comparison is the EUROMOMO site linked by exile, as it looks at the statistical deviation from the norm for each country, compared to its own historical average. It's specifically set up to look at the effect of disease going through society, mainly seasonal flu. On this measure, Scotland was pretty bad, but England was truly dreadful.

Bollocks. Scotland has to get the go ahead from Westminster for furlough schemes and other economic support measures, because it doesn't run the tax system. And yes, I know you'll come back with some petty minded shite about ooooohhhh but they control income tax but that isn't sufficient to address something of this magnitude. If you think it is you're just showing a complete lack of understanding of the economics and you can do one.

Pishin doon scheduled for phase 2, when bars with outside areas are allowed to open.

Jesus, there's some humourless bastards on here.

If you don't like him you need to be watched? Take a look at yourself FFS.

They're relying on a public inquiry, which will be split into multiple stages and take 10-15 years to report - see Grenfell, Hillsborough etc.etc.

Full article here https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0