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Everything posted by Clyde1998
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The SNP say that voting intentions for the next Westminster election currently stands at: http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/sep/snp-track-third-term LAB - 39% (40 seats, -1) SNP - 35% (14 seats, +8) CON - 18% (3 seats, +2) LIB - 3% (2 seats, -9) If the SNP gain 5% extra support from LAB voters - it'll look like this: SNP - 40% (28 seats, +22) LAB - 34% (27 seats, -14) CON - 18% (2 seats, +1) LIB - 3% (2 seats, -9) Remember - opinion shifts fast. We can stop Labour being Scotland's largest party at Westminster!
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Should The Yes Campaign Continue.
Clyde1998 replied to antidote's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
The SNP are now only around 10,000 members behind the Lib Dems. -
Should The Yes Campaign Continue.
Clyde1998 replied to antidote's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Up by around 5,500(?) -
2016 Election Projection
Clyde1998 replied to Clyde1998's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Technically, they're Survation's numbers and my calculations based on them. I hope Labour fail as well. As I said "I know it's early and everything could change" - The Greens could run a campaign mentioning the lack of kept promises by Labour after the referendum (assuming they're not kept). -
2016 Election Projection
Clyde1998 replied to Clyde1998's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
I forgot to link the Survation data: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Scottish-Attitudes-Poll-Results.pdf The Greens are nowhere near gaining an extra Glasgow (list) seat unfortunately. Glasgow: SNP - 36.6% (1) LAB - 25.6% (1) SNP - 18.3% (2) LAB - 12.8% (2) GRN - 12.4% (1) SNP - 12.2% (3) CON - 10.5% (1) SNP - 9.2% LAB - 8.5% SNP - 7.3% LIB - 7.1% LAB - 6.4% GRN - 6.2% SNP - 6.1% UKIP - 6.0% -
I know it's early and everything could change. Also the regional samples are small and could be subject to huge variances. Based on the Survation data from 16th Sep- pages 20 & 23 Constituency (Seats from http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood): SNP - 41.7% (45 seats) LAB - 31.1% (23 seats) CON - 14.9% (3 seats) LIB - 5.9% (2 seats) UKIP - 3.5% GRN - 2.3% Others - 0.6% Regional (Seats worked out by me using regional data): H = Highlands; S = South, C = Central, M = Mid & Fife, G = Glasgow, W = West, L = Lothian, N = North East (Example = 4H means 4 seats won via the Highland List) SNP - 37.2% (27 seats - 4H, 3S, 4C, 2M, 3G, 3W, 3L, 5N) LAB - 26.4% (17 seats - 1H, 2S, 2C, 3M, 2G, 3W, 2L, 2N) CON - 12.6% (8 seats - 1H, 1S, 1C, 1M, 1G, 1W, 1L) LIB - 7.1% (2 seats - 1H, 1M) GRN - 9.1% (2 seats - 1G, 1L) UKIP - 6.8% (1 seat - 1S) Others - 0.8% Total: Compared to 2011 Election SNP - 72 (+3 on 2011) LAB - 40 (+3) CON - 10 (-5) LIB - 4 (-1) GRN - 2 (+0) UKIP - 1 (+1) IND - 0 (-1) Early Projection: SNP Majority
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Should The Yes Campaign Continue.
Clyde1998 replied to antidote's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Do you really believe the SNP (and Greens) would agree to that, let alone to UK Government? I highly doubt the UK Government would give us more power and I think the SNP wouldn't want risk independence for a federal system that we'll be almost trapped in. -
Should The Yes Campaign Continue.
Clyde1998 replied to antidote's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
23p per week or £1 per month if you go for annual membership. -
Should The Yes Campaign Continue.
Clyde1998 replied to antidote's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
I think it was only because there was no leader in waiting then. I believe there is now - Sturgeon. I hope Salmond comes back and finishes the job he's started. -
F*ck Off!
Clyde1998 replied to Clyde1998's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
I'm in South-East England at the moment, so it'll be difficult to get up - especially as I'm still in education. I'm trying to move up asap after I finish though. My plan is dependent on finances though. I don't think I'll last in England much longer, especially politically - UKIP are popular where I am . I'll keep up with social media and maybe start blogging while I'm down here. I doubt I'd have any issues with the application, despite my location. -
F*ck Off!
Clyde1998 replied to Clyde1998's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
I've had confirmation of payment from the SNP. -
F*ck Off!
Clyde1998 replied to Clyde1998's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
I had YesScotland emails going into my spam folder, but this didn't. There was no chance of me joining Labour after that referendum - I joined the SNP tonight. -
I'll suggest to anyone who voted, or supported (if you couldn't vote), yes to join either the SNP or the Green Party. Keep the movement going...
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This just appeared in my inbox. I am delighted and proud that the people of Scotland have made this historic decision to stay in the United Kingdom. This was a vote for social justice, for our NHS, and for unity — because we are better together. But whether people voted Yes or No, this was also a vote for change. We must change the way the UK is governed and who it is run for. And that thirst for change is not just in Scotland but across the whole of the UK. We need more good jobs and job security. We need decent wages and an end to poverty pay. We need a better future for our young people so they can believe they can have a better life than their parents. The last few weeks have been about keeping our country together. The next eight months will be about showing how we can change our country together. There is only one party that can do it — and that is the Labour Party.
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I've joined the SNP as well today. I hope the letter they send me doesn't have an SNP logo on it...
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If the unionist parties fail to give us more power now, a second referendum could (and should) be held within the next 10-15 years. Using the Quebec data: 1980 - 40.6% Yes 1995 - 49.6% Yes (+9%) A 9% increase in Yes support would see us independent and if no-one could trust Westminster, then it would be inevitable... My only worry is that the SNP would never be in overall power again (but with pro-indy independent and Green MSPs, they may not need full control to get it through Holyrood). Here's to hoping...
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Ed Milliband Says No
Clyde1998 replied to jcs's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
The best we can do in the next election is to vote against Labour. 20+ SNP (Westminster) seats would send a huge message to Westminster. -
Salmond Gone
Clyde1998 replied to TartanJon's topic in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
hell... -
With 1/6th of the electorate voting via postal vote, could these have swung the result? People were suggesting that they voted "yes" on the day, due to the propaganda by the media. Those who voted by postal vote would have been much less likely to have voted after the full force started. This could mean that the postal votes were a high "no", but much closer on the day. Any substance to this...?