exile

Even Fraser Nelson on Newsnight thought it was rubbish, smacked of panic

City reporter on Newsnight just said the market hates uncertainty, and the 2 sides will need to reach agreement asap after the vote - not 18 months. Also Niall Ferguson, just said BT campaign rubbish for being so negative, then said independent Scotland would be a disaster, like Belarus or Slovakia

Just saw Douglas Alexander on TV endorsing the Brown initiative. So is it official Labour policy, or BT policy? Where is Miliband, Darling, Cameron? Whose 'powers' are these - the Labour ones? When will English backbenchers get the chance to vote them down? After the 2015 General Election?

Here is the Wings view http://wingsoverscotland.com/we-dont-think-we-understand/#more-61445

What's going on? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29115556 Are there new powers or not? Agreed by whom exactly? Why so much airtime to an opposition backbencher?

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/londoners-diary/mystery-of-the-scottish-poll-leak-9718512.html I think this is/was the Londoner's Diary section which is a bit gossippy not the main political section

Here's the actual story http://www.standard.co.uk/business/markets/scottish-referendum-square-mile-sees-some-upside-in-a-yes-vote--chris-blackhurst-9718304.html "Their internal assessments had come to the same conclusions: that outstanding issues such as the Scots’ choice of currency and EU membership would quickly be resolved because they would have to be; that business would soon return to normal; that they would not be affected either way by a separate Scotland."

There was something in the business section of the Evening Standard today along those lines, but they (not exactly Yes-friendly) countered it themselves, by saying that if it came to it, everything would probably be sorted out. Arguably the problem is the uncertainty surrounding what would be the outcome of a Yes vote [rather than independence as such], which is something the UK Govt could move to fix, pronto, as soon as there was a Yes vote. In other words in the event of a Yes vote they could move to calm markets and make out independence wasn't so scary after all (my interpretation; and 'could' doesn't necessarily mean 'would')

The Queen should remember she will still be Queen of Scotland, when we revert to the Union of Crowns scenario. It's not the end of the united queendom. Now, now, those options are not on the ballot paper!

Someone who doesn't fancy the left-of-centre consensus of Scotland likely to result from a Yes vote. Someone who, despite being a no voter, reckons the BT campaign have been scaremongering over all the economic arguments. My conclusion: The Tories are just looking after themselves, but are at least honest about it. But Labour are trying to deny to the majority of Labour-leaning Scots a solution that would be in their own interests.

Evening Standard today suggests Farage privately gleeful at the way things going

A sad angry bitter man "Scots who dally with separatists invite a bitter divorce" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f041834-351a-11e4-aa47-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CkJLo6I9

British Bosses Get Scottish Independence Jitters as Polls Narrow http://online.wsj.com/articles/british-bosses-get-scottish-independence-jitters-as-polls-narrow-1409917401

Rebel MPs plot instant revolt against Cameron, if Yes campaign win http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-exclusive-rebel-mps-plot-instant-revolt-against-cameron-if-yes-campaign-win-9712688.html

Just curious, what is your view of the Republic of Ireland, the forgotten (half) brother in your analogy?

Just realised, if it's Yes and they postpone the general election, Boris won't have a chance to become MP in time if they ditch Cameron... rUK could be delivered Scot-free to a conservative majority under Osborne?? Osborne's been quiet lately...?

Mike Small with some good soundbites here: 5 reasons why yes... http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/04/scottish-independence-5-reasons-yes-winning-polls

The board was re-set this week, so the stuff on here is not representative of all shades of opinion - you can be sure of some more NOs sooner or later!

A grumpy Brian Wilson was on the radio this morning, kept banging on about 'nationalism' Here, he's countering George Monbiot http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/04/scottish-independence-nationalism-progressive-george-monbiot-uk

Simon Jenkins... Ok so he doesn't have a vote, but... http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/04/scottish-independence-yes-vote-leaner-meaner-scotland

You may be right but then again... Though there is a parallel with joining the Euro, which would be expected to have a referendum, that would be about 'losing' the pound and ceding to a continental central bank. It could feel like ceding sovereignty. Now you may argue (may already have) that a CU would be ceding some sovereignty, but it's not as dramatic, as it would be 'keeping the pound' and the central bank located at Bank, London, and the pound in people's pockets would be the same. Politically surely those are much easier to get past the electorate than the Euro scenario.. And, although maybe CU could be arguably ceding sovereignty, in one sense, of allowing a foreign country having influence, it would be no more than recreating something close to the good old UK, which already included an element of that country's interests in there somewhere.... And who knows what circumstances the decision would be taken in? If it was in the context of an emergency credit crunch type situation, all sorts of things could happen - if it is suddenly in the (rUK) national interest to stabilise the ship pronto, presumably it could be done, and framed as a necessary 'technical emergency measure' rather than a referendum issue. I'm not saying that's likely though.... just imagining the possibility...

The number of times I've heard political commentators looking ahead to the general election then possible EU referendum, without the hint they even considered what might happen in September.... Still... it's still a big IF

PM could face calls to postpone UK election if Scots vote for independence http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/calls-to-postpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence

You mean like before the Euro election, so it could be spun as 'SNP fail to win third seat...'?

Yes vote would trigger an 'economic earthquake', claims Danny Alexander http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-yes-vote-would-trigger-an-economic-earthquake-claims-danny-alexander-9709677.html Scottish independence has finally rattled the City of Londonhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/03/scottish-independence-city-rattled-sterling