Tartan Tarantula

Some rough calculations I did on the tables of this poll (I posted this on SGP earlier): First thing I check for is the 16-24 age group with Survation. This fluctuates like crazy in terms of voting intentions. Last poll had 42% Yes, 45% No. This poll its 32% Yes, 50% No. Every single poll they have for this age group is never even close to one another. To make matters worse, as its been pointed out, this is up weighted by a factor of over 2. Just goes to show that they dont really know what they are doing with this age group. When it comes to the over 65s, however, the figures hardly change - they are stupidly similar. Most of the other groups show a modest increase for Yes of a few % points. If you remove the 16-24 year olds from this sample, then you have Yes on 44%, No on 47% and DK on 9%. Compared to the last poll, which showed the 4% increase for Yes, then excluding the 16-24 year olds you had figures of 41% for Yes, 47% for No, and DK on 12%.

I believe Survation are saying now its 10pm

Daily Record releasing figures at 10pm now, half an hour earlier. Not sure why the 30 min change....

Thats the same as before!

Anyone in particular tweeting this? I think the rumours have put us on somewhere between 1% and 100% Yes so far today ;-)

Any of the tweets from people who are likely to know, or just randoms like ourselves? Find a small No lead hard to comprehend from the tweets written by Clegg and Survation. Its either a much increased No lead or a Yes lead of some description. Both would fit into the pattern. Survation had Yes on 47% (excl. UDs), so not much wriggle room for the sort of small No lead which youve obviously seen. In all honesty, the more interesting polling will be done after the last couple of days media bombardment. No change here wouldnt be much of a surprise (if it wasnt for the suspense generated by the Record and Survation themselves), but Id be more interested to see the polling after the 3 amigos and Browns masterplan....

Im only aware of the Survation one today Cove. Thought the ICM one is planned for the weekend?

The poll is out this evening, so I can only hope that hes not referring to it directly. It could well be the rubbish being spouted by BP, or it could well indeed be the poll.

Either will be a huge decrease in the Yes vote, or a Yes lead in the region of over 53-47 onwards.....

A few selected tweets: David Clegg @davieclegg · 20m Phones at the Record ringing off the hook from finance firms wanting to know the details of the poll. Results at 10.30pm tonight. #indyref Graham Henry ?@grahamhenry · 5 mins V.intrigued by “sensational” results of @survation #indyref poll tonight… revealed 10.30pm by our Scottish brethren at Record @davieclegg. Survation @Survation · 9h Our #indyref figs for @daily_record are VERY interesting @davieclegg will tweet headline numbers first – follow @survation for full info

His tweets today have been rather teasing.....

Inkless pens are generally recommended for No voters.

You only make such a decision to cancel PMQs and rush up here if the news was bad (i.e. an increase in Yes). If its an increase in No, then you act with confidence and do nothing at all (like theyve been doing the whole campaign). Lets see. Cue 5 hours of false tweets being reported :-)

This. As I pointed out, in the context of previous Survation polls, and in comparison with panelbase (amongst others), this is just p1sh.

I dont post much, but thats a very typical response from you. Post something which is total and utter tripe, and then get in a twist when someone pulls you up about it.

High turnout suits Yes much more than No. The over 65s (the most No friendly group by a mile) always vote. We wont see much increase in the vote there. The increase will come from the groups more favouable to Yes. Therefore, any increase in turnout has to be good for Yes.

Analysis (somewhere or another) has shown that those wanting DevoMax are already voting No by a ratio of 5:1. I think (and I hope) that this new "story" is being played to the wrong people.

You dont half talk some sh1te Eddard. In the context of Survation, most polls have cluttered around the mid to high 40s, with the only movement being towards No (4 points), followed by a reversion to the mean (4 in favour of Yes). Otherwise, no movement. Any movement above 50% for Yes would be huge in this case, especially since Panelbase didnt replicate the current Yes swing.

Survation say tonights poll is "VERY interesting". Either shows a Yes lead or a big No decrease (would assume 4 points if in this direction).

You werent on the simon-dach-strasse yesterday were you? Heard a number of scottish accents....

You can rest assured we will be way behind on the postal votes. Its normally the over 65s that get them...

Panelbase actually showed a small decrease in the Yes vote, but nothing to change the headline figures. Have read a load of different theories why Panelbase didnt show any shift in comparison to Yougov and TNS, but nothing really strikes me as ringing true. We`ll see tomorrow. For me, TNS has always been the most important pollster, and that 50-50 (or 49-51 however you want to spin it) is far more significant that a Survation showing a 52% Yes vote.

Absolutely nothing to read into that in the slightest. That has been planned for a good while. Need to see some movement on Survation and Panelbase.

If ever there was a time that Murdoch came out for Yes, this would be it. The "wall of publicity" as AR put it is enough to sway some folk. But even as Brian Taylor puts it (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29132375), theres nothing new here - although you wouldnt know it looking at the coverage thus far.

Is there any reaction to this on twitter from anyone who is undecided (Im guessing there will be)? Hopefully people are clever enough to see what a crock of s**** this is, but I have my doubts sometimes.....