Tartan Tarantula

Not really Eddard. When people like David Bowie get involved, or Kriss Akabusi for that matter, that's what turns people off. I don't think there's been much (serious) issue with exiled Scots....

Alasdair Allan has a post on facebook saying the TNS poll tonight is 50-50. Yes up 6%, No down 6%.

It wouldnt have been a massive surge though. 2 points maximum either way. Momentum can be as easily lost as it is gained.

Smithson is a Tory. And not a pleasant one at that (are there any other kinds?). Simply: 1) We dont know for sure who commisioned the Panelbase poll 2) If it was Yes Scotland, it could have showed no change or a small insignificant slip, and hence not released to preserve the "momentum" 3) It could still have shown a huge Yes lead, at which Id also be concerned about releasing it. Frau Tarantula always warns me about peaking too soon :-) If, however, it did show a lead, other polls nearer the time will also show a Yes lead, giving No less time to react 4) It still might be fecking released My guess - the changes in panelbase are not going to be anywhere near as massive as those from Yougov. Chances are it kept Yes at 48% or possibly 47%, which isnt exactly bad for Yes. We will get a couple of polls which show Yes in the lead before the 18th. Im pretty sure of that - even if its just random error. Folk just need to get out and get the work done (while I sit on a train heading to Dortmund having a beer) ;-)

Its been well known that the Sunday Times will be running with a poll this weekend, and then another yougov during the week. Hence, cant read anything into it whether its going to be a good poll or not (IMO).

Dont think there is over confidence (much). I guess its just the anticipation of the first poll (apart from the "dodgy" one) to show a Yes lead. People have waited a long time for it....

Haha! Nothing like using yourself as a source! ;-)

Rumours from where?

Ask a stupid question, get a bag of sweets. Well done Alex.

Postal votes surely don't get opened now? The deadline for returning hasn't even passed yet!

Ah, that explains it then. They werent happy. Something to be said for actually going to a polling station to vote. Still, 2 more Yes votes, rather than 1 No vote.

Old man (used to be a Labour councillor, now an SNP member) says canvass returns confirm the 2:1 split in favour of Yes.

My brother and mother got postal votes a few days ago. They didnt want them, nor did they ask for them. However, they still got them. The only reason we can think of was that they both asked for postal votes ages ago, and somehow seem to have got them again. Mum called to try to get them to take them back and give them normal votes, but for some reason they wouldnt/couldnt. By the way, my brother was a staunch No. It came to blows at Christmas (as it always invariably does) after drinks in the Park Bar with comments such as what will our tax system be in 2016, too poor, too small, too stupid etc etc.... My mother, on the otherhand, was born in Iran and always learned towards the SNP, but only voted once..... Both voted Yes.

Usual Yougov methodology and usual sample size. Nothing different with this poll compared to their normal ones

It could also be yougov just catching up. The Kellner correction stuff is believable to a certain extent....

odds have been like that all day to be honest. not changed from morning.

Last poll was 14% lead for No, preceded by a 20% and 21% poll (off the top of my head). 6% is getting into silly country!

Where did you hear that?

yougov poll out tonight. Anyone on twitter to pick up the vibe?

This is perhaps one of the most confusing thing, for me at least, being an expat. I see folk on here so confident of a 50+ result on the 18th, and then I look at the odds and articles in the papers which talk about a Yes vote being extremely unlikely. I know on this board we sometimes go a little over the top with things, but are folk that confident, and are they seeing things which the betting companies and journalists arent? Ive given up on the polls to be honest. I did an analysis of the16-24 year old polls in Survation, and came to the conclusion that it was simply all over the place. One week there would be a 51% Yes indication, the next it would be 55% No. Not surprising since they were always up weighted by at least a factor of two.

In my drunken state, I think I meant that we CAN see some sort of trend when they are published. The issue is when we get no polls at all....

This is getting stupid. One poll in 2 weeks. I've followed the polls for god knows how many months and years, and I simply can't remember a time when we've have so few polls as now. This on top of a 2nd debate a week ago.im not one for conspiracy stories - we can't always see some sort of trends when polls are published on a regular basis before an election. that's without question. however, when no polls are published, it does get me thinking perhaps some of the conspiracy ideas aren't too far from the truth.

i think a poll showing no change would be positioned as bad for Yes. That's why the silence gives me a bit of hope. In saying that, living in Berlin, all I have to go on are the canvass returns my old man on Lewis is giving me. A sad state of affairs.

You'd definately see one of the papers tweeting something by now about a poll coming out. Have to say, apart from the survation poll a couple of days ago, which showed some major issues with the yes vote, it's been awfy quiet the last TWO weeks. I'm not one for conspiracy theories in the slightest. I think the polls reflect the actual situation across scotland by and large, but this absence of any polling suggests whoever has commissioned the polls doesn't like the answer.

Exactly my point AR!! :-) totally over the place