Craig Fae Hamilton

Odds have been updated on our game and the Cyprus v Norway Game. ANYTHING apart from a Spain/Norway Double and we qualify THIS Match Day: Home Team / Draw / Away Team / Over Round Cyprus 17/1 / 32/5 / Norway 2/9 (81.83%) / 0.9% Spain 2/7 (77.76%) / 27/5 / Scotland 13/1 / 0.53% And, with the Over Round removed (assuming it is split across all 3 Outcomes) it puts the chances at: Spain Win = 77.58% Norway Win = 81.53% Double = 63.25% Meaning the chances of that DOUBLE not coming up is 36.75%, a lot less than 50/50.......... On the positive side, I don't think Scotland should be anywhere near as high as 13/1.

That is TOP information! N1 M8!

I was at that Alicante game and they destroyed us. I'm hoping 1-1, my gut says Spain will win this by 2.......... Which, is bad for us.

I'm in Germany for 8 Days, applied for 8 Sets of 4 Tickets! All around the Frankfurt area. Would be great if UEFA started a ticket swap app too! To get Fans to the right games!

1-1 Spain to Play an attacking Game. They take a 1-0 Lead, They go for the killer 2nd, Scotland hit them on the break and score the leveler. We see the game out like Brazil. Spain are dejected at the final whistle............

Nah M8, that's not the case. If Spain beat us by only 1 Goal, if we ended up level on Points with them we'd be above them. So a 1 goal Victory for Spain means they still need to take something from Norway, unless Scotland fuck it up all together. But, we are playing like Brazol so I don't thin that's going to happen this time! You are correct if they beat us by more than 2 Goals. And probably correct if they beat us by exactly 2 goals as it's unlikely we'd over take them on Goal Difference.

lol, N1

That actually seems to me a fairer way of doing it. Everybody going in the Travel Club would get a chance to see 1 Match and those with loads of Points would see 2. PERFECT!

That Rail Ticket could be immense. You could split up the long distances between games by just staying in a different City every day and work your way there. That could cut down on Hotel costs too as non-Match Day Cities will have much cheaper accommodation.

We need a proper statistician for this thread. Although safe to say, we have around a 50/50 chance of qualifying in the next Round of Games. Going with replies, the majority on this thread are erring on the side of us not qualifying this Match Day. I think we might do it via a Cyprus DRAW. But, any route would do, it would be brilliant to get it done and dusted off the back of our own performance versus Spain. Mon' the Scotland!

My Head Hurts, but yeah, Spain will be tough. But, in our favour is that a Norway win in Cyprus is not an absolute Gimme........You see what I done there Pete? 😀

Now I need to check......... Chance of Spain Winning: 75.02-1.67=73.35 Chance of Norway Winning: 74.17-1.36=72.81 Accumulator: 0.7281x73.35=53.34% 1-.5334=46.66% So yeah, you are correct. But, why do the Chances of the other 4 Outcomes combined come to 53.94%? What am I missing?

Stop replying to my Topics you absolute BAW BAG!

But Scots would pay our for share of England hosting it on their own, just like we had to do for the Olympics, Euro's and World Cup. Westminster will simply say it is a benefit to all of the UK and we need to pay our fair share. Or, it will be put onto the UK's National Debt and the result is the same. We will need to pay our un-fair share.

Nope, because it's any 1 of 4 outcomes. Each Outcome has a percentage chance of occurring. So the percentage chance of at least 1 of 4 of those things happening are the 4 chances added together. The 4 of them have been calculated on a scale of 0-100%

I'm on 9 Points, would have been 11 if I had got a ticket for Cyprus. Anyway, it is highly unlikely that it'll go down to my points level for the Euro's! Might have had a chance with 2 Points for Cyprus.

I wanted to know the chances of ABSOLUTE Qualification in our next Game! I'll have a bash at the % chance, any more accurate calculations, let me know. Scotland Qualify IF we DRAW or BEAT Spain.............. OR Norway DRAW or LOSE versus Cyprus The Norway Calculation is easy to make. They need to WIN ALL there games to have any chance of over taking Scotland. Scotland BEATING Spain is also easy as neither Spain or Norway could over take us. If Scotland DRAW with Spain it is more complicated. But in this situation, Scotland QUALIFY regardless of the Norway Result. It would leave us 6 Points Clear of Spain. Spain would have 3 Games remaining. If we were to finish the Group level on Points with Spain it goes to the HEAD to HEAD results between us, NOT Goal Difference. So Scotland would beat them. That means to over take us, they would need at least 2 Wins and a Draw from the final 3 fixtures. To get that, They would need a minimum of a Draw V Norway. And, as Norway need to win all Games, in that scenario Norway would be OUT! Best Odds available on the games as at 17.50 27th Sept at Oddschecker: Home Team / Draw / Away Team / Over Round Cyprus 9/1 (10%) / 4/1 (20%) / Norway 7/20 (74.07%) / 4.07% Spain 1/3 (75.02%) / 4/1 (20%) / Scotland 9/1 (10%) / 5.02% And, with the Over Round removed (assuming it is split across all 3 Outcomes) it puts the chances at: Scotland Win = 8.33% Scotland Draw = 18.33% Cyprus Win = 8.64% Cyprus Draw = 18.64% TOTAL = 53.94% that Scotland secures Qualification in the Spain Game!

This is poetry, I'm unsure why you don't see the funny side. This is a classic from 67: Ignore the one below, mis-post

1st time I have heard the Scottish Commentary for the Hand of God Goal...............Very fair I thought.......'Natural Position'....LOL:

9 Points, that's us PUMPED!

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There were! Pretty much all corners of every STC Stand. Too many to say that Guys just stood closer to the middle. Too few to say that 20%+ of Tickets were harvested.

With the Stadium holding a smidger over 50K, how many tickets do you think we will get? I'm thinking of going just to get my points up for Euro 24 if I can get a STC ticket.

Ticket Prices for Germany have been released. Positives, Prices look AMAZING for those with enough points. Negatives, Not getting a ticket for Cyprus probably stops me from getting a ticket all together, and, even if I am lucky, it will cost me 240€ EXTRA for 2 Tickets! for 1 Game. An EXTRA 720€ for all 3 Group Games . The true cost of Harvesting! Enough Points= 30€ a Ticket. Not Enough Points= 60-200€ (With the 60€ tickets being very popular).

Seems more than fair! All 5 could Qualify. A MAX of realistically 2 could fail to qualify (After Scotland SCUD there Group in Double quick time........)