Clyde1998
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Posts posted by Clyde1998
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Err... That Panelbase poll hasn't been revealed by Panelbase or YesScotland...
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Panelbase conducted 2-4 Sep, YouGov 2-6 Sep.
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Do you reckon that the Panelbase poll was deliberately conservative in its results? Eitherway, we haven't won this until we've won this.
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Panelbase/YesScotland: Yes 48% (+1%); No 52% (-1%)
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I've just seen the poll. Feck me, YouGov showing a yes lead.
We haven't done it yet though...
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I know it's been mentioned but does anyone have a link to the don't vote = no vote ? Want to spurn on some people to turn out!
It's a thing to get no voters not to turn out. It's not true however
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@skymarkwhite: Is Scotland about to vote Yes? Expecting word on a Sunday Times poll later tonight which am told will make Unionists very nervous #indyref
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Will we know by Friday morning or will we still be waiting on some polls to be counted throughout the day on Friday?
Friday morning. Each council area will declare individually, with counting taking place at several places within a council area (I believe).
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From Canadians:
"Incredibly bad optics. Remember when Charles DeGaulle stuck his nose into Canadian politics and declared "Vive le Quebec libre"? Canadians, rightly, were outraged that a leader of a foreign nation would meddle in internal politics to that degree. Harper has just made the same faux pas. Team Stupid."
"Harper, do Canadians all a favour. Keep your nose out of other countries issues. You have done enough damage already with your voicing of your uninformed opinions."
"The last time someone interfered in our politics, Charles DeGaulle, Lester Pearson sent him home packing three days early. How embarrassing. Harper should mind his own business and leave domestic issues in the UK to it's citizens."
"More pontificating from the CON Pontiff, nothing good can come of offering any comments on this issue. We would not welcome any foreign leader's comments on Quebec independence and Harper should be smart enough to not wade into this topic. He is in over his head on the world stage."
"People of Scotland, please don't be mad at Canada because of Stephen Harper poking his long nose into your business. Go ahead and be mad at him. Most Canadians don't like him either."
They love him for it.
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I'm astonished at that quote !!!
I can't tell if it was sarcasm or not...
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Could be clever use of words by Yes Scotland referring to the numbers with DKs included i.e. still under 50% (and therefore no majority) and only translating in to a majority when DKs excluded.
That would be logical. The no vote is rarely about 50% now including DKs.
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Hmmm.
That is completely at odds with a conversation I had this morning.
It's at odds at what I've been told, as well. I can only assume it's going to come out by Sunday...
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Where you seeing that, Clyde?
Someone told me that it showed a Yes lead. I read on Twitter a few days ago - I'll try and find the tweet - that it shows Yes at 55% (excluding undecided voters). The Yes campaign would mostly likely wish for Panelbase to check the numbers to confirm this figure, due to the huge swing towards yes.
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Few bitters on twitter saying that Yes Scotland have the results of a Panelbase poll showing a lead for Yes, but they're waiting til next week to release it for maximum effect
Hmmmm
They're getting it verified, as YesScotland didn't believe the data - massive swing apparently...
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That is a simple extrapolation and takes no account of the effect of momentum.
Do you want me to make the yes gains per day larger?
As I put at the bottom: "Of course daily swing can rapidly change"
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I hope it changes. 50.8% is far too close for comfort. Want it to be up over 55%.
I'd take any win, but the larger the better.
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Those YouGov polls revealed in the last month have shown an average of a 0.63% swing to the yes campaign daily. Let's take the swing from the 15th August poll to the 1st September poll (0.46% daily swing towards yes or yes increase 0.23% per day).
1st Sep - 46.8% yes
2nd - 47.0%
3rd - 47.3%
4th - 47.5%
5th - 47.7%
6th - 48.0%
7th - 48.2%
8th - 48.4%
9th - 48.7%
10th - 48.9%
11th - 49.2%
12th - 49.4%
13th - 49.6%
14th - 49.9%
15th - 50.1%
16th - 50.3%
17th - 50.6%
18th - 50.8%
If the current rate of swing towards the yes campaign continues, the yes campaign will win by 0.8%.
Of course daily swing can rapidly change, but we can hope it doesn't...
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How common/uncommon is it for a maritime boundary to run horizontally from the point that 2 nations meet on land?
There was a pretty detailed rebuttal against Craig Murray's blog on the subject if I remember correctly when I've been googling about this in the past.
The maritime border should run at an equal distance between the countries. A straight line is common.
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Lassie in the pub tonight told me she was No/undecided before going to see Salmond in Perth tonight, now a yes!
Salmond is a very good politician, like him or not, and would be able to convince people to vote yes with a clear concise argument.
We. Will. Win. This.
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Gone ten now wheres the new poll?
The YouGov poll we've been talking about was the poll, but we should have the data tables now.
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Where are you getting that from?
A couple on "poll analysists" on Twitter. The tables are revealed at 10pm.
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Don't Knows splitting 2:1 to yes.
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I see the wee reminder has worked, at least for one ;-)
I believe the other one was an internal Yes poll. It may be that within the final month they're not allowed to release it.
Next Poll
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Posted
I said on Twitter that I would only judge polls based on the wording of the questions and the weighting. I'll wait for the data tables before making my final judgement.