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Posts posted by Clyde1998
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ICM - 21:00
Survation - 22:30
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Nae idea how, who, whatm they are and what method they used,
https://twitter.com/twittprognosis/status/511512034476052481
Yes 51% No 49% by Prognosis? Sample was over 1,500 people.
I've asked them for data tables.
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TNS poll @ 5pm is about rUK attitudes to Scottish independence. Whatever the feck that means. Assume it's not taking a sample of Yes vs No from Scotland.
It's an England and Wales poll. It doesn't affect the referendum.
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I assume you cannot release a poll during the actual voting times - when is the publishing deadline of a poll before the actual vote?
Thursday 7am - When the polls open.
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Neither are in power - don't worry about it...
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Panelbase: No 50.6% Yes 49.4%
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haha! last panelbase was 48% right?
Yes.
More specifically: Yes 44%; No 48%; DK 8%.
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Who is J Savage anyways? The last survation poll was meant to be the next big thing as well!
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ah. no change then
"Interesting[ly]" the dog ate it and they can't show us what it said...
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@jsavagetweets: Wait til you see this Sunday Times [Panelbase] poll. Interesting doesn't quite cut itHmm...
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Opinium poll doesn't include 16-18 year olds...
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that's 101%.
Is it
48.7 - 51.3
or
47.7 - 52.3
?
When we see the raw data in the polls, why do they place such significance on the prior elections?
Surely they should realise that the referendum is completely different. It's not about the next 5 years, but rather about the future of the country as an independent nation. Also, what about the people who are only registering for the first time?
The more I look at these, the only consistent thing is 65+ and females voting for No. The rest has massive variances between polls, making me think that apart from females and 65+, the rest is a complete and utter nonsense (especially 16-24).
Sorry. It was 48.7% yes; 51.3% no.
I'll update it after I see the Panelbase data.
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/complaints/complaint/alexsalmondrbsquestion/
Complaint
We received complaints from viewers who felt Nick Robinson's report on the Scottish First Minister's press conference implied that Alex Salmond had not answered a question put to him.
Response from BBC News
The BBC's Political Editor Nick Robinson asked Scotland's First Minister Alex Salmond two questions at his press conference on Thursday 11th September. The first question centred on the tax implications of RBS moving its legal headquarters to London; the second on why voters should trust a politician rather than businessmen.
Nick Robinson's report showed the second question on trust, with a script line noting that Mr Salmond had not answered that point.
Mr Salmond's answer on tax was lengthy. Since it was not possible to use it in full in a short news report, a series of clips were included making his central points - the job implications of the re-location of RBS, the accusation that the Treasury broke rules by briefing market sensitive information and his request that the BBC should co-operate with an enquiry. In addition Nick Robinson's script pointed out that the First Minister said there would be no loss of tax revenue.
The BBC considers that the questions were valid and the overall report balanced and impartial, in line with our editorial guidelines. -
My poll of polls (awaiting ICM conduction dates and Panelbase poll):
- Yes - 48.7%
- No - 52.3%
- "Too Close To Call".
Opinium data: http://news.opinium.co.uk/sites/news.opinium.co.uk/files/observer_scotland_final.pdf
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I'm all polled out
Panelbase one to come tonight...
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Think their website has crashed!
Any idea what (and when!) the last poll from Opinium was?
Never. This is their first one, oddly...
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Just to beat Clyde to it
Interestingly, there link doesn't work
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Margin of error with 700 people is about 3.5%
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http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/icm-put-yes-ahead-perhaps/
BOOM!
Yes - 49%
No - 42%
DK - 9%
Only 700 people though...
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We're expecting a Opinium/Observer poll at 8pm
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Survation data table is another pile of pish.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Better-Together-Voting-Intention-Tables.pdf
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Could be similarities with the 92 General election there (hope not obviously), when Labour were ahead in the polls and exit polls, but the Tories won again...
The Conservatives were predicted to be the largest party, but in a hung parliament, in the 1992 exit polls. Although they were still technically wrong, it's not as bad as people make out... (I don't know about the opinion polls though)...
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That's where they must have got them from.
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May I share these?
Yeah - someone put them on my forum and they let me share them.
Next Poll
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Posted
Yes.