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Ally Bongo

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    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    39 minutes ago, Ally Bongo said:

    The Greens wont support Forbes as FM so the Government would need to fold first

    Unless of course she is elected leader of the SNP and enough Labour/Tory MSPs support her as FM because of;

    (a) Protocol

    (b) Neither wanting an early Holyrood election due to finances

    (c) Certainly don't want to be portrayed as causing an early Holyrood election

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/marking-time/

    We’re going to rule out Yousaf being smart enough to take our sensible advice from that article and trigger a general election immediately. That being so, these are the remaining options for what can unfold next week:

    SCENARIO A

    Humza Yousaf resigns before the votes of confidence (which will most likely be on Wednesday or Thursday) can take place.

    What happens then?

    Nothing much changes. The Tory vote of confidence in Yousaf will be cancelled, but the Labour one in the entire government will still go ahead and will be supported by the three Unionist parties.

    Since Alba won’t have been able to secure any concessions that would justify them supporting the government, they will logically have to either back the motion or abstain, which has the same effect.

    The same applies to the Greens: since they won’t know who the new FM will be* – it could be Kate Forbes, eek! – they can’t risk letting the government off the hook and will have to support the motion too.

    RESULT: The government falls.

    The government falling does not automatically trigger a general election. However, it would be effectively impossible to form a replacement government in 28 days, because neither the government nor the opposition can command any sort of working majority. So an election WOULD follow.

    (Fun fact! Under the Scotland Act, an election this year would have no impact on the normal schedule of Holyrood elections, ie any government elected would only last until 2026, when we’d have to have another election.)

    SCENARIO B

    Humza Yousaf does NOT resign, and loses the Tory vote but survives the Labour one. (We’re not sure HOW he would, but it’s theoretically possible.)

    What happens then?

    Yousaf would come under intense pressure to resign, but under the law he doesn’t HAVE to. He can tell the SNP “Look, if I go the government collapses and you all lose your jobs”, and he can tell everyone else “Nyah nyah nyah I don’t care what you think, you all hate me anyway so who cares?”

    RESULT: Business as usual. The government staggers on as a minority, with great difficulty, because the Greens won’t work with Yousaf and he’ll have to beg Labour and the Tories for votes to pass anything.

    The reality of Scenario B is that unless Yousaf had somehow succeeded in winning back the Greens, another confidence vote would be called sooner rather than later and the whole mess of the last week would be repeated ad infinitum until one succeeded and an election was triggered. Nobody wants that, and the public would probably burn Holyrood to the ground.

    SCENARIO C

    Yousaf doesn’t resign, and WINS both votes.

    What happens then?

    Pigs fly, Hell freezes over, everyone marries a monkey’s auntie.

    RESULT: See above – business as usual.

    The only even theoretically plausible route to that outcome is if Yousaf makes some big concessions to Alba and somehow doesn’t trigger a rebellion in his own ranks by doing so (remember, a revolt of even one SNP MSP failing to back the government very likely causes its defeat), or if he makes no concessions but Alba then bottle out of bringing down an SNP government and back him anyway, AND no SNP MSPs fail to vote for the government for any reason.

    SCENARIO D

    Yousaf doesn’t resign, and loses both votes.

    What happens then?

    The entire Scottish Government has to resign, and as with Scenario A it’s highly unlikely that a new government could be formed within 28 days, so there’s an election and we don’t get to have a summer holiday.

    All manner of zany capers both within and independent of these situations could and probably will transpire between now and Wednesday, but ultimately one of the four outcomes above will materialise. Wings’ view is that Scenario D is most likely, closely followed by A and then very distantly followed by B and C.

    .

    *Here’s a pertinent detail: outside of Parliamentary shenanigans it’s actually quite hard for the SNP to remove a leader except at annual conference, which is currently scheduled for 30 August-1 September. If Yousaf really decides to dig his heels in it could be October or November before the party has a new leader.

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    58 minutes ago, dipped flake said:

    Alba have been fighting against the SG from day one. They are a unionists dream. A party run by a rent a gob sex pest, paid by Russia. 

    Read this 18 tweet drivel from "Councillor Graham Campbell" (the grifting boyfriend of SNP MP Anne McGlaughlin) then tell me that the SNP does not need burned to the ground. 

    If you still doubt it's madness read Neil Mackay's expose of the Scottish Green Party that pushed the SNP into no return on the GRA, HPMA & the deposit scheme and claim they got fuck all out of the BHA

    https://archive.ph/XhCI5

     

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

    Divide and rule. The number one ploy of the British establishment playbook.

    Stewart McDonald is most definitely an MI5/MI6 plant along with Lloyd .... Wishart too probably although his motivation is keeping on the devolution gravy train

    They are the most vocal anti Alba from within the SNP

     

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted · Edited by Ally Bongo

    16 minutes ago, Orraloon said:

    I'm not sure how that is going to help their cause? Unless they think they can still persuade at least one of the Greens to bail him out?

    I'm starting to believe that the SNP are deliberately trying to make Alba being seen as the party that brought down the SNP Government

    It is absolutely fucking madness

    It is going to get to the point that most folk that desperately want Independence are going to come round to the idea of burning down the whole SNP, Government and Party is the only option

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    Almost certain Humza will resign before the two votes of No Confidence

    Why the fuck did he send letters to Unionists ?

    He only needed to ask the Greens and Ash Regan

    Since 2014 it's been obvious that Unionists are only there to undermine Holyrood - what the fuck did he expect or was it a case of "look at me - i'm a good wee grown up parliamentarian"  ?

    Despite Kate Forbes giving her support it is almost certain that not every SNP MSP will back him - it only takes one (looking at you Fergus)

    Humza Yousaf has written to Scotland’s opposition parties asking them to find “common ground” ahead of confidence votes in his leadership.

    The first minister is facing a serious challenge at Holyrood following the collapse of the SNP government’s power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens.

    But his appeal was immediately rejected by the Scottish Conservatives as "humiliating and embarrassing" while Scottish Labour said it was an "act of desperation".

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

    An extremely strange position we are now in, the greens now saying they would vote against humza, and alba saying they will in with the snp. I happen everyone remembers this, alba have a purpose and that is to help gain independence, the greens have used the climate and independence to further  their creepy  ideology 

    The Greens ARE going to vote for the linesman's VONC in Humza Yousaf which also slags off the Greens

    The Greens ARE NOT going to vote for Anus's VONC in the current Scottish Government that they are no longer part of

    ALBA want reassurances from Humza before they vote to save his neck in the VONC

    ALBS ARE NOT voting for the VONC in the Scottish Government

    Humza is going to be the jobbie that wont flush until he takes the SNP into a major election

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/an-uncommon-occurrence/

    News reaches Wings this evening that Humza Yousaf has called an emergency meeting of the Scottish Cabinet at 10 o’clock tomorrow morning. (This information has been confirmed directly to us by a source very close to a member of said Cabinet.)

    An emergency Cabinet meeting is an extraordinarily rare event. As far as we can establish there have only been two during the SNP’s time in power – when the budget failed to pass in 2009 and Alex Salmond’s administration had to decide whether or not to trigger a general election, and one the day after the Brexit vote to supposedly plan a second indyref (LOL). But in any case they’re extremely unusual.

    The subject of the meeting has not been disclosed to us. It could, for example, concern imminent developments in Operation Branchform, or it could relate to the Bute House Agreement between the SNP and the Scottish Greens. Or Scotland could be about to declare war on Morocco or something. But we are told that the fact of the meeting taking place is a 100% certainty.

    So no sleeping in tomorrow, readers. It’s probably going to be big.

    Indyref 2 (2)

    in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere

    Posted

    On 4/22/2024 at 10:34 AM, Alibi said:

    The sooner the SNP drop the Greens the better.  Preferably before the Greens resign from government (which they probably won't because they like the money).  If the SNP don't drop the Greens, they will look indecisive and may even be tainted by the inference that they don't disagree with Harvie's views on Cass.

    I expect Yousaf will plead with the Greens to stay.  He has a talent for doing the wrong thing at every opportunity.

    Hey Presto

     

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