Morrisandmoo
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Posts posted by Morrisandmoo
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11 hours ago, chaff said:
I'm going to my sisters down south for Christmas. Lockdown or no. Not seen my family for over two years and to be honest if they cunts can have Christmas parties and laugh about it so can I.
Two jags and booster this Tuesday.
Sick of it
Yeah I don't think you can ask people not to see family. That can't be on the list of things we are prepared to do.
9 hours ago, phart said:I said this morning now no one will listen to the Tories regarding any new restrictions.
It's a problem.
Folk need to look through their disdain for the government though and be prepared to suck up lower cost / higher impact measures e.g. masks, restricted indoor meet ups etc.
It doesn't help bringing in divisive, and unhelpful, measures like vaccine passports. Or having Cummings...or parties...or whatevers next.
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10 hours ago, phart said:
Case fatality rate is 1.29% off official numbers.
However there is sure to be more infections than cases.
0.18% of the population have died (not exact as no exact number of people in Scotland is known)
So somewhere between 0.18% and 1.29% as a percentage.
As a total number 9672 people going by a positive test in 28 day criteria.
However that's also probably an under count. There has been 12216 deaths were covid is mentioned on the death certificate (as of 5/12/2021)
Excess deaths are the highest in peacetime since 1891 last year and there are more in 2021.
750k confirmed positive I think , roughly
Just answering the question.
Deaths (or mortality rate) as a % of the population doesn't come out as bad does it?
I think I remember looking at it and every year before 2000 or something was worse than what we are experiencing. Is that correct?
It's not the mortality rates that I find concerning. It's every cunt dieing at the one time in January 2022 that is pre-occupying me!
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8 hours ago, Lamia said:
It’s probably already too late.
I am horribly sharing your pessimism.
Hopefully my gut feeling is wrong and just normal human anxiety.
We will get through it, either way, but a nasty way to end/start the year.
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11 hours ago, Orraloon said:
To put a very slight positive note in here. As yet there isn't much (if any) evidence that omicron will be produce any more severe disease than delta. And it's still too early to know if the vaccines will be any less effective against omicron. Nae need to panic yet. Wait a couple of weeks for that. 😉
I wouldn't wait a couple of weeks. I think we should be mandating some of the most effective measures now (e.g. limiting large groups inside). I'd rather we protect Christmas itself (and the Ayrshire derby obvs) than Christmas parties. In all seriousness, I'm worried it could be out of hand in a couple of weeks. And I am generally very optimistic and risk tolerant (when it comes to living with the virus)!
I think the signs that it spreads more easily is worrying. The potential for vaccines also to be less effective is another downside. In my opinion we should not be clutching to the hope that it causes enough less severe disease to bail us out.
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Fuck sake man.
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4 hours ago, phart said:
It's trying to balance the rights of competing interests for example
Cancer patients have the right to get operation on their cancers but those rights are curtailed by the rights of people not to get vaccinated.
Navigating between competing rights is very hard.
I agree with what your point - it is hard. But that guy is part of the problem.
Once we are all vaccinated then who are we going to blame then. Folk are so divisive and hateful man.
That being said, in this case it's not hard. It is a stupid measure that will cause lots of societal harm and do no good whatsoever. I feel I've said this about something before...
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This is all going to end in tears.
I'm sick hearing folk moan about Brexit and trump as it is.
That will be nothing compared to the politics we get if we keep up with this totalitarian shite.
Hopefully we are done copying the EU after the vaccine passport carry on.
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1 hour ago, Bzzzz said:
They need put back in their place. It's the perfect time to do that right now.
As a Killie fan, I've been saying that about Aberdeen for 30 years....and yet here we are.
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I don't want to play Wales. Bogeymen are real.
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Thank you, appreciate this service.
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Very pleased at this decision.
It relegates the vaccine passport to just a waste of money and a mild risk to public health.
Rather than a waste of money which does no good, while also excluding people from Scottish society (from communities we pretend we want to include).
I honestly don't think the government had much of a choice, when I could work out 6 weeks ago it was impossible for this to be anything other than a very bad thing.
Wish we hadn't paid those tech companies millions of pounds. But fuck it, no point throwing good money after bad.
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Would appreciate an update on this at your earliest convenience. Thanks.
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13 hours ago, Shaundy said:
Nice to see Rangers supporting Tom on football focus today with the spoiler for his achievement.
We should be making more out of his achievements (along with his brother), so good to see him getting some exposure.
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15 hours ago, phart said:
The comic was drawn by physicist and former NASA employee Randall Munroe. They have some background in science.
Explaining a joke once is bad enough, twice would be overkill.
Scott Wing made that graph and he talks about climate catastrophes so it just lends to the point how our current problem is a climate catastrophe.
Also I doubt when people talk about climate has changed in the past they're all talking about a mutually agreed time-frame. In this very thread folk were talking only as far back as the 70's as opposed to 500 MYA. This should be obvious.
Anyway you don't like it fair enough , it's ubiquitus in the offices of the universities i've been in though.
Aye, the most popular one I see is a temperature chart that goes back to the 1800s or something. Alongside quotes like "it's the hottest year on record". Ok fair enough. But we've been keeping records for 2 seconds and it's just about the coldest it's ever been on earth. It's obviously just a point of irritation to me!
The reason I think it matters though that people understand it's unusually cold today is (1) then recognising that it is going to get much hotter, with or without "net zero" (2) the planet and life as a whole will be fine when it does.
I do, however, accept that humans don't adapt well to change and the faster the change happens the worse it will be. So good to slow that down and buy ourselves a couple of seconds to work out what to do next (e.g let it get naturally hotter or fuck nature and keep it artificially cold for us (and the polar bears)).
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Got to say enjoyed most of the noises, re covid, from Sajid Javid on the Andrew Marr show. "We would never consider mandatory vaccines for the general population"; "vaccination should be a positive thing"; "boosters will make all the difference". That is exactly the political messaging which will maximise positive health outcomes, while minimising social costs.
The EU on the other hand seem to be stirring up a public disorder nightmare, with their increasingly totalitarian approach to government.
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PS regarding other species, i've already made it clear that I am on the side of the crocs not the polar bears.
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2 hours ago, phart said:
It's not pretending anything it's all labelled. It gives the temperature from the last ice age, if you don't read the axes and labelling it could suggest anything I guess. It's also not the point.
It's being ignorant of the argument.
The argument isn't we're in unprescedented global temperatures it's the direct affect of what temperatures do to human habitats and what will happen when those changes occur.
Crocodiles were in the artic 40 million years ago. that's 10 times longer ago than earliest evidence of bipedalism.
Pointing out it was warmer in the past isn't a relevant thing, no one is debating that. Go back 13.8 billion years it was really hot. Go forward a trillion years going to be really cold. That's how entropy and the arrow of time works.
Also it's the rate of change not the change, 2nd derivative not first.
It's what's going to happen when habitat and climate change in a way to be hostile to our species (and many others)
The stated purpose of the chart is to represent "when people say the climate has changed in the past they mean things like this".
But they are either deliberately mis-representing what those people mean or they are, themselves, very bad at understanding things and people. When people say things like the climate has changed in the past - in fact, they mean the ferociously fast changes that have occurred over the life of the earth as summarised in the chart I shared.
You can make the argument about which bits of the Earth's history you think is most relevant in interpreting our current situation and you can make the argument that what matters most is the impact on the human race.
However, they are not making either a relevance or humanitarian argument (that you are making). They are just being dicks and mis-representing what other people say to try to make those people look stupid. In internet speak, it's just a big straw man they have done drawed.
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But loads of people are looking at the last 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% of the chart and pretending like it's the only thing that matters in the context of the earth's climate.
In the context of modern human life maybe, but not the earth's climate.
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I hate shit like that because it is pretending to show a long time-line when it's actually really short. Also the longer timeline shows that when the earth starts warming it often does so at ferocious speed. Whereas that chart tries to pretend it's always been smooth, except today.
It's not to say that climate change is going to be good or anything or what is happening is "normal". But that chart suggests it's generally warmer today than in the past, which is not true, and that temperature variations in the past have been smooth/gradual process, which is also not true.
Not a fan. I prefer the one that shows it being so warm not so long ago that there were swamps and crocodiles in the arctic 🤪
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11 hours ago, phart said:
Boosters really can save Christmas (and lots of lives) if we get it into all the over 40s / 50s quick smart!
Clarity of thought/communication needed from politicians here to see that this is the most important thing right now, in terms of covid. Yet yesterday the Scottish Government were pretending it's the Vaccine passport that (might) make the difference 😂. Dangerous nutters.
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6 minutes ago, slasher said:
Stolen from twitter 'there's a junky up our way taking people's jags fur them. He's taking £150 a time, done about 16 so far' 😂
I'd love to believe that this is true 🤣
Lol. I am going to choose to believe this.
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8 minutes ago, phart said:
Some of the 10% will have already had it as well so injection or infection works.
The main problem is years of underfunding in all sorts of areas has made us succeptible to problems from the pandemic. No quick fix for it.
Yup will need years of effort and a change in mindset - we can't run the NHS down to the bone.
Too few doctors, too few nurses, too few ICU beds, too little mental health provision; too much fat, too little exercise, too much alcohol (and that's just the TAMB on Monday nights 🤪)
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22 minutes ago, thplinth said:
Well personally I was forced to take the vaccine to visit my sick mum in hospital. In the end I was not even able to do that.
And forced in effect by know it all wankers who think they know what is best for us all.
You bet I regret taking it. Prick.
I don't think we should ever allow people to be ill or dying on their own ever again. It's too traumatic. The family need to be able to make that decision (e.g. putting themselves at risk).
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4 minutes ago, phart said:
That's the current state for the eligible population. it's not too bad when you consider a lot of other places
It's excellent and we should focus on that fact.
It:
(1) Sets expectations i.e. we can't vaccinate our way to zero deaths or anywhere close. Even if we close the 10% gap, it won't make that much of a difference, as we are already benefiting from a significant degree of protection. However, good to keep trying, but not obsess about it (e.g. through passports and punitive measures on the unvaccinated)
(2) Therefore informs us that other complementary measures are needed e.g. increased NHS capacity to cope with higher intensive care demand; perhaps time-bound restrictions on indoor gatherings during periods of high infection; more general health measures to counter-act increased mortality rates e.g. fitness and nutrition, mental health, etc.
Agree that in immediate term going turbo on boosters is the way to "save chrismas" as they say.
Coronavirus
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Posted
Sorry I mean actual death rate (not excess deaths).
Actual death rates were worse in every year in the 20th century I think?