Morrisandmoo
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Posts posted by Morrisandmoo
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Day 1: cost is £3, pay off is £10
Day 27: cost is £4, pay off is £1
Scottish government have declined to take up day 1 wager, but have placed cash on day 27 wager.
We can all argue until the cows come home. But it’s not going to make it any more clever I’m afraid.
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8 hours ago, vanderark14 said:
Nightclubs are being restricted too as are pubs. Table service limited numbers etc
So I ask again, what else could she have done?
There isn't a one size fits all solution here, regardless of what she does, there would still be plenty of people pissing an moaning about small inconveniences.
She could have acted at the start of December, when it would have made a difference.
And she could have held her bottle once she’d committed to riding the bitter wave.
As it happens, this government have made the worst combination of decisions. Not clever IMO.
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10 hours ago, TDYER63 said:
But its not just Scotland that is doing it , Wales are arguably stricter than us and with more measures likely to be put in today. Northern Ireland are also likely to be bringing more measures in. The only home nation country that isnt is England and thats only because Bojo has the spine of a slug and cares more about losing the support of his backbenchers than putting measures in place.
I can understand people’s frustration but lets not pretend we alone are having restrictions imposed on us. If NS is grand standing she must be the only politcian i know that deliberately grand stands to become more unpopular.Radio Clyde phone in last night was an utter joke. The presenter ( who I actually normally think is pretty good despite hosting a programme simply for the ugly sisters to have a greet night after night ) was going on about how football plays such a massive part of peoples lives in Scotland which them veered into the mental health issues it would cause with folk not being able to get to the football. This of course whips the callers into a frenzy.
Everyone knew the winter was going to pose problems . The NHS are struggling not only due to the higher number of beds being taken but because of how short staffed they are due to staff having covid and stressed. And the phone in is worrying about stress caused because folk cant go to the football. FFS.
The Scottish Goverbments decision won’t help the NHS. It won’t help anybody.
There will be no measurable benefits from the additional controls placed on people here on Scotland. That’s obvious to me at least.
It’s vaccine passports all over again.
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The main issue for me is that it’s probably too late to make a meaningful difference to the peak spike, with further 27th Dec measures. High cost vs low benefit generally equals a bad idea.
The case for measures is much weaker now than at the start of the month.
If England hold their nerve (which they rarely do) then we will see the value of these extra measures play out.
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1 hour ago, Toepoke said:
Football crowds restricted to 500? 😖 FFS!
Aye it's shite.
I do not support. Especially with pubs still open. Plus it's too late now anyway. Very bizarre decision making I think from the Scottish Government... to bring in damaging measures when it's too late to make any difference.
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7 minutes ago, thplinth said:
If we had to live in lockdown conditions permanently, for the rest of our lives, in order to be 'safe'. Is that a price worth paying. Clearly no. So how many years does it take to not be a price a worth paying, two, three, four... Sometimes the cure becomes worse than the disease. I am not saying we are at that point but it is definitely approaching (for me at least).
This thing has run two years now, if we are having a similar conversation this time next year (or worse) then we have fucked up.
It's an important question.
I think it comes down to what short lockdowns get you in different scenarios: risk vs reward. A few weeks ago I would have supported lockdown of hospitality because of Omicron threat to (1) allow boosters to roll out more (2) figure out severity and vaccine effectiveness (3) give time to develop Omicron specific vaccine if needed. (4) most importantly protect Ayrshire derby on 2nd January.
To me there were lots of benefits. Locking down now or after Christmas probably has much much less benefit. So I'm less supportive now, but open to others' views. I kind of think though that if the shit is coming, then it is coming now and it'll be over soon. Hold your nose and help NHS staff as much as we can.
Going forwards I think there will continue to be periods where lockdowns make sense. But we do need to get our heads around the fact that covid is not going away anytime soon, a zero covid strategy is not viable, everybody obsessing about the numbers year round is unhealthy and that mortality rates have stepped back 20 years -> therefore investment needed to adapt to this. The more humans normalise the risk and the more our infrastructure adapts to it , then the less disruptive it will be.
We also need politicians to be more positive and less divisive, especially during the "good times" and not bringing in ineffective,discriminatory and coercive measures like vaccine passports. It undermines support for genuinely effective measures.
I imagine some of these judgements and debates will start to emerge during the next election cycle - with perhaps "alternatives" springing up across Europe.
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9 minutes ago, phart said:
I'm favouring optimism today
Spike in cleavage efficiency you say? That does sound positive.
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On 12/19/2021 at 9:28 PM, phart said:
There isn't enough info yet about severity.
South Africa has a totally different age profile which is one of the main indicators of severe outcome.
I haven't the foggiest idea what the best course is to chart through this. Lockdowns move the peak rather than eliminate the peak, it's also probably too late, we're already at testing capacity so reported cases are no longer accurate.
Talking about celebrity dentists is just rhetoric as well, the head of Denmarks covid team is stating the same thing about cases there.
Denmark's projections show the wave so fully inundating the country, that even a lessened strain will deliver an unprecedented blow.
Scientists caution that the knowledge of omicron remains imprecise. Denmark's virus modelers have many scenarios, not just one. But even in a middle-of-the-road scenario, Danish hospitals will soon face a daily flow of patients several times beyond what they've previously seen.
"This will overwhelm hospitals," Grove Krause said. "I don't have any doubt about it."
They will shut down some things, not full lockdown. Bars etc are being restricted in several countries.
Netherlands enforced a lockdown
Chris Witty also saying the same sort of thing.
Let's look at Whitty's credentials: BA in Physiology, DSc in medical science, BM BCh in Medicine, DTM&H in Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, MSc in Epidemiology, LLM in Medical Law, MBA, DipEcon in Economics. Consultant doctor, Chief Scientific Advisor, Chief Medical Officer, Professor, researcher.
If there is a literal choice between letting hospitality go to the wall or let the NHS collapse. Are folk seriously advocating sacrificing the health service to keep hospitality industry solvent? The government should be funding them instead like the countries above are doing.
There is no good choices in this. It's not some parochial political thing, it's a 20 month long global event.
Yeah this is the situation. In that, we are probably locked into a pretty big spike already (we knew this a couple of weeks ago).
Timing is everything. I guess the positive is that we are well-boosted up in the most vulnerable (and I saw something about vaccine + booster = 80% effectiveness. So a large spike now might even = better result (in terms of Covid deaths at least) than a smaller longer spike later. Albeit the trauma for NHS staff, plus additional strain on services is a big price to pay.
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56 minutes ago, Toepoke said:
Bracing myself for behind closed doors fitba again 😕
I've got the fear as well.
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On 12/16/2021 at 1:10 PM, phart said:
Now this makes the suffering of people just a prop in your "politics" which is the very charge you're levvying against the folk at COP. So there is much common ground.
It's almost like we're all human
Probably a bit unfair in terms of folk being a prop.
It's more that (1) you can't in practice care about everything equally. Otherwise I'd need to spend all my time on the internet talking shite. I appreciate this means that when viewed objectively then it results in contradictions. But I am happy to be a subjective human.
When it comes to vaccine passports - I feel our government is doing an awful thing and the majority of people support them in doing so. Therefore, I might make a tiny tiny tiny difference by saying how awful it is. It's not really "politics". In fact, my general politics tilts towards "big government", if that's still a thing.
(2) I think that how we treat each other and the economic/social structures we live by will determine to a much larger degree the happiness and prosperity of people in the future vs our external environment. It's too simple to say: hotter climate, worse human outcomes; colder climate, better human outcomes.
And besides, I don't think I've much criticisied the status quo (e.g. slow down the pace of climate change). It's more that I've criticised the honesty/integrity of some of the leading individuals/organisations; their communication strategy generally; their clarity of thought/purpose; and their social priorities.
(3) I know a lot more about vaccine passports so feel more confident going all in. Not that i'm an expert - it's just that I am certain that I am in the right and the majority are in the wrong. If nothing else because it's very simple. Climate change is a lot harder.
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15 hours ago, Lamia said:
This is my real objection. They did more harm than actual good
Some of the wealthiest people in the world gathered together and did more harm than good. Shock headline.
Somebody asked me, I think it was Phart, why I don't take this stuff seriously and don't proactively voice support for climate action or whatever. And the reason is - when you have the bad guys, the rich guys and the left side of the internet all violently agreeing with each other (they don't think they agree, they think the are on different sides - but they do agree and they are on the same side) - then I don't need to weigh in to also agree.
You've got every company in the world lining up to pledge net zero, but not one pledging to end poverty.
If those 40,000 delegates and the protesters cheering them on (with their silver spoons) would have turned up in Glasgow and pledged to share their (and their companies) wealth equally with the rest of the world then poverty (adult and child) would have been eradicated. Now 16th December 2021. Nobody would be hungry.
But they didn't. They all believe in the wrong things. The bad guys always did, but now the political left do too.
An unnecessary rant /
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12 hours ago, exile said:
Here's another chart, from Travelling Tabby (tonight), based on Scottish Govt figures
So if Omicron is in there somewhere, where (when) would that be? The rise near the beginning of December?
Or else, if these charts are wrong, what do you think the actual rates are? What would the 'spike' look like, instead of the pattern above?
And if these figures can't be believed, why would that be?
Is the Scottish Government fiddling the figures? Public Health Scotland? UK Government? The UN?
Who is the 'them' that we don't believe? And when did 'they' start faking the figures?
Yes that is exactly the shape I would expect to see if COP26 were the seeding event (rising from December) - for the reasons I explain above.
As I also said it's irrelevant to me either way. But yes the shape fits well with people's intuition.
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7 minutes ago, thplinth said:
How many times do they need to 'fix' it though... once should have done it. I reckon in 20 years time when you are going for your 37th booster it will still be needing 'fixed' every time. Having a jab in Scotland and England is the kind of unforeseen complexity the IT system will never be able to cope with. 😀
Lots I would reckon - similar to the flu vaccine. You might be low-balling at 37 mind, if current rates are anything to go by.
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I don't think the timeline is problematic. I also don't think we'll ever really "see". Lots of thinking.
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Booked booster yesterday, for today.
Got to say the place was running like a well-oiled machine. All 3 times I've been, I've thought as much. Considering the logistics involved the Government and the NHS have done well with these vaccine roll-outs. And the public have done well to respond to them.
I snobbishly and outlandishly found myself thinking...no wonder we won the bloody war* 😂.
WWII obvs, not any others.
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Don't start picking holes in my model - I worked hours on that.
The only solace I take is that usually when Pokemon have high attack rate, they are easy to catch on the counter.
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3 hours ago, aaid said:
If Omicron was in the Scotland six weeks ago, cases would’ve been going up, not down, even if they hadn’t identified them as Omicron.
I don't think this is true.
If the initial Omicron case was during COP26 then the case numbers would not have had an impact on overall trend for 3-4 weeks (by my simple reckoning of course). A timeline which actually fits quite nicely with the Omicron variant arriving during COP26.
But I don't care that much, we'll never know, what's done is done and it would have got here anyway etc etc
However, what we must all be thankful for is that all those cunts at COP26 will "save the planet" - they certainly don't seem to care about much else.
A very simple model: when would Omicron start biting?
Days 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 Omicron Cases 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024 Overall cases 3001 3002 3004 3008 3016 3032 3064 3128 3256 3512 4024 % of cases 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 2% 4% 8% 15% 25% -
I thought Celtic were out...???
Which, to be fair, I concluded from Kris Boyd getting it right up them with a "Europe after Christmas isn't for everyone" jibe. Funny, but that will learn me for basing my world view on KB comments.
Very exciting prospects for Rangers right enough: Atalanta, Barcelona, Dortmund, Leipzig, Porto, Sevilla, Sheriff, Zenit.
While Celtic's conference opponents have all the glamour of dug shite: Quarabag, Randars, Glimt et al
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"Jabs in arms" does my nut in.
Just say "jagged". People are jagged or they are not jagged. We know we're not sticking them up our arse.
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On 10/31/2020 at 10:21 AM, TDYER63 said:
I got an email yesterday from someone in work that said ‘one team , one dream’ .
Wtf , do people actually talk like that in real life ?Team work makes the dream work! True story that one.
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31 minutes ago, phart said:
It's like war.
We need to allow families to support the dying this time (regardless of infection control) to take some burden off the nurses.
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We are fucked if these vaccines don't hold.
Albeit, I think the likelihood is that even with the vaccines it won't be enough to avoid a catastrophic Christmas period for the NHS. Unless we can go back in time: do a virtual COP26, have proper testing of international travel and immediately start social distancing measures on discovery of the variant.
What kind of red buttons do we have that we can press to help the NHS? Nurses out of retirement again, re-purposing to maximise ICU etc? I am worried about whether the doctors and nurses can cope, given their resilience is probably at an all time low (as per the stats you shared on mental health Phart).
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On 12/9/2021 at 9:58 AM, Squirrelhumper said:
Not much fun sitting outside a pub at -5 in January tbf.
Has there ever been any proof that limiting opening times reduces cases? That for me just seemed like made up rule to make them look like they were doing soemthing.
I don't know, but makes sense to me that it would have a small impact. The longer you spend somewhere socialising then the higher the risk, so limiting opening times should make a difference. I get that some of the younger folk will just immediately head to house parties, but they do that anyway.
I know for me the longer I spend in the pub then the higher the risk of me hugging random strangers or engaging in similar nonsense. So sending me home early is definitely effective! Maybe the rule should just apply to me.
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2 hours ago, phart said:
I'm in a situation where going to a club in the next few weeks seems mental to me. I appreciate that I have a different set of circumstances to a lot of folk though.
I would support closing clubs, limiting opening hours for pubs and promoting outdoor areas. The cost/benefit makes sense to me. But I've never liked clubs anyway....so would favour closing then with or without covid 😀
I know it's not ideal for the businesses (and we should support them) or younger people trying to have fun.
Hopefully pubs are well adapted that they can get decent amount outdoors also.
Coronavirus
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Posted
Yea I think the modelling combined with uncertainty at start of December supported lockdown.
If for no other reason than to protect the Ayrshire derby
What people think on TAMB doesn’t matter.