DonnyTJS
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Posts posted by DonnyTJS
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Just on the use of masks in Japan.
I guess it's impossible to quantify the effect, not least because there are so many other factors that come into play. I've just been out in my neighbourhood of northern Osaka. Maybe 60% of people masked; a bit above normal. As I think I mentioned days ago in the Coronavirus thread, the Japanese tend to maintain social distance as a cultural given: bowing rather than physical contact (it's public transport where they get crammed together, and a lot of people are avoiding that now - more cars on the roads); small families; a generally better approach to personal hygiene. They may also be using different criteria to numerate the data that they release, which is used by the worldometer site - I don't know. At present there's no national shutdown, shops are calm and well-stocked, spring is in the air.
Common sense would suggest masks might make some beneficial difference if frequently changed, but plenty here aren't wearing them in public. I was obliged to wear masks in Hong Kong during SARS, and it's not pleasant - the must of 10.000 breaths builds up and I'm in no hurry to return to that.
A disappointing 'told-you-so' thread, as beardy points out.
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4 minutes ago, Eisegerwind said:
Is the timekeeper back for good?
I expect my appearances will be brief and infrequent. There's quite a lot going on ...
[edit: maskless in Japan]
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3 minutes ago, Eisegerwind said:
This is what we want.
All in the wonderful OED. I no longer work for an organization where I can access the online version, but I recently acquired the print version (all twelve folio volumes) from a school library that was chucking them out - a library throwing out one of the greatest reference works in the language: just insane.
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Derives from 'gallows'. The noun had developed into an adjective meaning 'born to hang' by the 15th century (the earliest OED quote for the adjective is c. 1425: "This gallowus man toke him by the skyrtis of his palle or mantyl". It evolved from there to mean someone 'uppity', and then, for some, to the more neutral 'over-confident'.
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4 hours ago, Orraloon said:
Not yet as far as know. So far they are just spending money that didn't exist a few months ago. I think they are too busy to make any plans about how to pay for it yet. I don't think pension pots will be top of their list for taxation purposes but most folk will be paying for it one way or another. Inflation might be big problem?
Isn't it obvious how all this will be paid for? They'll print the money. Every government in the world will print money. Pension pots won't be touched. The value of what's in those pots will be fucked. But since it's liable to be a global devaluation, there's a chance that the fuckedness might be only relative to today. The global currency system has long been an agreed fiction, ever since the gold standard was done away with, and agreed fictions can survive most anything, so long as people continue to agree.
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On 3/31/2020 at 11:04 AM, DonnyTJS said:
The Archive Board was still available a few weeks back via the tab at the top of the page. I'll pm TAMB1 about it - might be retrievable; the archive went missing once before when the board changed hands.
No reply. No surprise.
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35 minutes ago, Shaundy said:
Recommend that too. Some great bike riding . A particular scene made me laugh , still does.
Surprised it wasn't mentioned earlier. Great sound track.
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7 minutes ago, noctonjock said:
An awesome team but a wee bit unfair starting with 12 men 😁
Dirty Leeds.
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19 minutes ago, phart said:
this is the old link
http://taboard.com/archive/index.php?showtopic=56912
time to go to wayback machine.
Apparently not been archived either.
I got the link from an old Donny post
The Archive Board was still available a few weeks back via the tab at the top of the page. I'll pm TAMB1 about it - might be retrievable; the archive went missing once before when the board changed hands.
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2 minutes ago, phart said:
It seems to be leading us to think folk were going to die anyway so lets not devalue the economy too much.
There was a lot being made of the economic argument in the States a week or so ago, and some of Trump's varied responses were due to listening to those on Fox espousing it, but it's more than just the economic damage. We're social animals who have created cultures built around social interaction. I know I'm personalizing this, and it's not fully rational, but my mother not being allowed to visit my dying father after sixty years of marriage seems fundamentally wrong. And this must be happening to so many families.
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1 hour ago, Auchinyell Sox Change said:
thought this was a good read
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think
That lays out things that have been troubling me (and no doubt many of us) for a while. The figures in, say, Italy and Germany don't make sense unless it's a different form of the virus, or remarkably different populations, or they're recording death rates differently. "Rushed science is usually bad science." Indeed. -
10 minutes ago, Terry Munro said:
I don't remember him
This bloke. Prat on the board; prat off it.
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4 minutes ago, phart said:
It was a year later, pistonbroke bzzzz and someone else were all drinking in Ed's house and they made a thread asking if anyone else was suspicious he was a walter mitty type, then Calmac revealed that he had, at the time of the death, been suspicious and phoned round the local funeral/cremation places and no one of his peculiar name had been registered, then it just unravelled from there. The thread is also famous cause it was where ron finally got banned for good from the board as well.
Tonnes of side stories the hibby doing a parachute jump in his name was mental though lol
It was Balloch Thistle, which led to him claiming credit for the final unmasking, like the cock he was. I think it all unravelled around May / June 2007.
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The archive board seems to have disappeared again. It contains Pistonbroke's thread that led to the whole thing unravelling; always worth a re-read so hope it's not gone for ever.
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44 minutes ago, Orraloon said:
As far as I can tell it's only in London so far that the NHS is close to breaking point. The rest of the country, so far, seems to be normal flat out busy. Although they are cancelling loads of "non emergency" treatments in preparation. It won't need too many more COVID-19 cases for it to turn to chaos though. Everyone is just bracing themselves for the onslaught. We are also lucky that this just happens to have been one of the quietest flu seasons for a while.
That may be the case (I've no idea), but I'm talking about the lock-down's effect on 'care' in a wider sense.
My siblings hadn't been allowed to visit at all since Monday, and by Thursday they were told to visit as it may be the last chance - he wasn't good before, but those three days had seen a real deterioration. Before that, there had only been two people allowed in a visit (I have three siblings). One of my sisters drove 40 miles and wasn't allowed in as my other brother and sister were already there - they weren't allowed to simply tag-team. Just spoken to one of them, and the place (a Parkinson's facility) has patients with dementia who don't understand why their family have stopped visiting (my dad understood - he has a functioning brain in a failing body), but he's stopped eating, and so had many of those with dementia.
I'm not suggesting we're in any way exceptional or worthy of exceptional treatment - this must be happening all over the country. It use seems that the balance of risk to harm is skewed.
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1 minute ago, ParisInAKilt said:
Are people generally healthier in Japan as well?
Yes, by far.
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4 minutes ago, Orraloon said:
Yes, but Japan just seems to be far, far better at doing it. It's possible that if our NHS hadn't been so run down that the UK might be taking the same approach as Japan?
Yes, that does seem to be the case. The lock-down restrictions are impacting care.
It's hard for me to comment as I'm not there, but I hear things as my family are in a situation that mirrors slasher's. Father dying (not Covid related). Had a call from one of my sisters yesterday that they were going into the hospital to say goodbye as he's deteriorated further, but my mother isn't allowed as she's high risk (married sixty years). Dunno, just seems unnecessary - she's got terminal bone-marrow cancer and won't last much longer anyway. Meanwhile I'm here; not that my being there would do any good.
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1 hour ago, thplinth said:
This also might throw some light on how Japan is doing so 'well' relatively speaking.
https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/japans-winning-its-quiet-fight-against-covid-19/
That all looks quite possible. I imagine that hospitals everywhere are treating the symptoms rather than the virus though.
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12 minutes ago, Orraloon said:
Why are you asking? Were you trying to create a new login for yourself?
Bottom of the home page: newest member 'keithrichards - joined February 15'; or summat like that. Just seems odd. I remember when the last iteration of the board was dying, folk weren't being registered. On the other hand, I'm assuming Wendy Who / Ormond / WCTA was been banned around then along with chripper / TDK. Did they shut the board to stop 'em re-registering? Seems a bit extreme.
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3 minutes ago, Orraloon said:
The only data that we can be fairly sure of, is the number of deaths. Looking at the UK and Scotland specifically we can also be fairly confident about the number for severe plus critical cases. But other than that is all estimations. The estimations can also be useful if based on sound logical thinking but there is always a very good chance that something pop up that we didn't know about.
It's all good exercise for the brain even if it does turn out to be utter bollocks.
Japan seems to have this under control. What have they done differently? Or, have they just stopped counting?
They're getting worried that it's about to take off again. Tokyo is showing a surge of cases. At the moment, life's pretty normal (restaurants, bars, shops all normal), but feeling that might change. It's getting towards the end of the spring break, and people are coming back from abroad, plus schools are due to open soon. Feels like we've just had a pause.
Yes, you have the numbers of deaths, but little context - such as age, underlying conditions, location, approximate date of infection, period from infection to death (to give some indication of the effect of shutdown), percentage of negative/positive tests, criteria for testing. No doubt these figures are available to some and increasingly accurate models are being developed, but as aaid says, no one here has them.
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16 minutes ago, slasher said:
By the same token people should be asking (especially now) if their posts are helpful to anyone. The truth is vitally important at all times. Unless someone has access to something else all I have seen here is speculation... oh and maybe one or two feathering their own ego nest.
It's your earlier point about too many unknown variables that I think is key. People can speculate all they want, but we need reminding every now and again that raw numbers mean next to nowt.
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Did the TAMB go into early precautionary lock-down? No new members allowed in since February 15.
Well, well, well...
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
Posted
Something else I should've mentioned - this is peak allergy season in Japan - loads of folk really suffer from a form of early spring hay fever - and they mask up for that an' all.