AlfieMoon
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Posts posted by AlfieMoon
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A Labour/Lib Dem coalition is looking increasingly likely to me Their tactic will probably be to play chicken with the SNP at Westminster, daring them to vote the government down on any confidence votes. Threats of another General Election and Tories back in power card, memories of 1979 etched.
In Scotland I think the polls have created such high expectations for the SNP that almost anything might feel (however mistakenly when put in a proper context) like a let down. I think the Lib Dems may keep a few seats based on tactical, anti-SNP, pro-Union voting. Tribalism and Shy Labour voting will surely also see Labour hang on here and there. SNP with 40 seats maybe, be interesting to see what influence they can then have in a hung parliament.
Libs have already made their bed in that situation. They backed the tories because they had the most seats. This will be the case again.
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flipping hell, SNP 2/7 in Edinburgh South West (Balerno, Currie, Colinton). returned an MSP at last election but that is crazy. this is Darlings old seat.
SNP have a QC going for this seat.
Labour have a city Councillor going for this to replace Darling.
Joanna Cherry QC (pictured right) has been selected by the SNP as their candidate for Edinburgh South West in the general election.
The seat been represented by a member of the Faculty of Advocates since 1974, with Malcolm Rifkind QC, Linda Clark QC and, currently, Alastair Darling, who is standing down at the election.
http://www.scottishlegal.com/2015/02/19/joanna-cherry-qc-chosen-snp-candidate-edinburgh-south-west/
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I have concerns about Glasgow North when I looked at the numbers from 2010 but the Ashcroft poll for that constituency is indicating a ridiculous swing to SNP.
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What price gordon ?
11/2 for libs
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North Ayrshire & Arran... Hopefully.
What do you reckon?
50/50?
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Whether it's via info from constituency polls, 2010 majorities or general local knowledge - which seats are people expecting SNP not to be in with a shout of winning?
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Stuck a small amount on a Tory Majority at 8/1.
Heart or head?
I had a serious look at this as well but I can't for the life of me them clawing their way to a majority.
I think they'll comfortably be the largest party as the national polling averages is factoring in a lot of marginals moving from Con->Lab on tiny majorities which I just can't see happening in such a uniform fashion - especially with such question marks over Labour's past record, an unconvincing leadership and the fear factor of the SNP being pushed by the Tories. They may claim some of those seats via Lib Dem protest votes moving back to Labour but I don't believe that the parties are neck and neck in the way it is suggested.
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Is this for real?
Unfortunately it will be. Did you not see that thread that someone linked to on some Rangers fans site last week?
It's classic divide and rule.
They've got a sizeable percentage of the Rangers and Orange Order elements thinking that the cafflicks are taking over via the SNP.
Then on the flip side you've had Labour historically saying that SNP are not for the Catholic vote and will close schools, etc.
It's mental.
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Looks more and more like this is a planned and timed wave of attack from Labour.
When James Cook questioned him in St.Enoch Square he couldn't have done any better to cram in his key buzz words of SNP, natonalism and aggression.
Now a matter of hours later we have this launched as the headline story from the Daily Record - ready to hit the papers tomorrow no doubt and attempt to add to the fury:
JK Rowling and comics guru Mark Millar stand firm against vile poison of Cybernat abuse http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/jk-rowling-comics-guru-mark-5636552
Sub story:
Cybernats brand SNP activist Muhammad Shoaib a 'traitor' and 'low life rat' for defecting to Labour
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/cybernats-brand-snp-activist-muhammad-5476373
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I just don't see labour backing down now. He's been so vehement lay against a deal. It would destroy them to backtrack.
Previous elections, this never came up as nobody was anticipating a coalition. The precedent has been set now.
They can dare the SNP to vote against them and effectively put Cameron back in?
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As soon as the parties split then really the whole scenario will be at FFA very quickly. After that we will be independent as soon as the deficit is gone - the deficit is really the engine of fear. Once its gone its all over bar the shouting - Scots want to be independent anyway, a few were just cautious and/or scared. No shame in that.
My fear with that is that with each passing year, we will actually be seen to be more and more dependent on rUK as the economy of London/England will continue to grow at a faster rate than Scotland so it may be the case that in winning one battle (against the deficit) then we have another obstacle of the Scottish economy performing below the level of the rUK. Of course - that should raise the question of why that is being allowed to happen but we know the reality of how it will be raised.
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don't forget to factor in the youth who would now have a vote.
We need 100K swing. I reckon we could have that by the end of 2016.
The real question is when would we have Referendum Mark 2?
SNP need to get a majority at Holyrood firstly and then go for it 2019 in my opinion.
The tidal wave of support can't last forever so it's important to take the opportunity while they have it but equally there's no point in going for it unless things shift to the extent of having 60%+ support for independence to ensure a clear and decisive result.
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Oh, look who's back with her political pearls of wisdom....
Michelle Mone: I'm voting Tory... Labour and the SNP would be a horror show for our economy
Mone, from Glasgow, revealed she would vote Conservative on May 7 in a column for The Sun.
..."I remember what it was like in 2008, when the recession hit. People were genuinely scared. We had retailers cancelling orders at the last-minute, a sense of doom and gloom everywhere.
"But these days, the retailers I meet have smiles on their faces again. The high street's buzzing. People have more money to buy that car or treat the kids.
"And none of this just happened by magic. You've got to give credit where it's due to David Cameron."
Maybe she's been spending too much time in the high streets of London rather than anywhere else in the country.
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SNP will have a tough task at Westminster. Let's face it - they are looking likely to get in bed with their main rival in the Labour party and prop up this party which has plummeting ratings, weak leadership and an absolute buffoon leading a branch office which is on it's last legs. They will suddenly find themselves on the same side as these people and will have a challenge to differentiate the SNP in Government, to claim credit for what good they've done, and to stand strong on certain issues without leaving themselves open to criticism of being destructive. It's not an easy task.
One big thing they could go for which would make a statement would be to push for the end of FPTP. That would evidently be to the detriment of the SNP (judging by this campaign) so would encapsulate the meaning of a selfless and progressive politics to implement a fairer system of PR which would open up the parliamentary system to a fair representation of the Green and Liberals vote. The SNP would go back to relative obscurity but the Greens would/could become the voice of the left and if this were to be done in conjunction with pushing through the abolition (or more likely reform) of the House of Lords then I think this would be a massive statement from the SNP in reforming the UK political system for the better. They should also evidently be cheerleaders for the CND within the Commons and gain as much Labour support as possible for this given the supposed position of a large number of their parliamentary candidates.
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"The Conservatives have increased their share by five points to 17% in the survey."
WTF????Tactical voting starting to become apparent??
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Jim Murphy: "This is another bad poll for the Scottish Labour party, it’s another good poll of course for the SNP, and it’s another fantastic poll for the David Cameron.
"David Cameron can’t beat the Labour party here in Scotland, so someone else has to do it for him.
"That way David Cameron gets to cling on to power because he’s the leader of the biggest party, the likelihood is David Cameron will remain Prime Minister, not because Scotland went out and voted for the Tory party but because Scotland voted against Labour for the SNP and reduced the chances of Labour forming the government.
"There’s much still to play for in this election a week’s a long time in politics and we’ll keep going with a huge amount of energy and a determination to turn much of this round."
It would be hugely amusing if Labour were to marginally get the most seats and SNP were then able to tell Murphy to go and form the Government without their support .... given that the largest party apparently get to form the Government and it's apparently as simple as that according to Murphy and he won't be wanting any SNP support.
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just back from canvassing in a historically strong Lib Dem/ Tory seat in Edinburgh. Never got a single non-SNP in an hour and half. Would have kept going for hours if it wasn't so late... absolutely unbelievable, and mostly pensioners too...
We canvassed an area in the constituency where until now, SNP was about 15%. We got 59%.
Encouraging to hear.
I was looking earlier at the 2010 results for my area (Glasgow North) and just can't imagine such a turnaround but I guess we'll know soon enough!
2010 results:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_North_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29
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Anyone got any decent tips for Seoul?
Specifically regarding an appropriate base for 3 nights that is well positioned.
The place is HUGE and seems to be spread out in terms of various shopping/restaurant districts such as Myeong-Dong, Insadon and Itaewon, and then nightlife in various places such as Hongdae and Gangnam.
I'm normally quite good at sorting through info and coming to a decision but I'm struggling for this one!
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I can only see the GERS figures getting worse to be honest unless there is another massive oil boom fuelled by particularly high prices. From that perspective - we may well have missed the boat with the economic argument. We've received a higher %age of public spending as a whole (for the 2nd year running I think?), our deficit / fiscal balance is worse, As much as the Scottish economy grows and recovers - I simply can't see how it can match the growth of London/England when we are operating with one hand tied behind our backs and all the focus on London centralisation of our UK economy. It's like having a house of an equivalent value in an exclusive area of Glasgow/Edinburgh vs London. The value of the London asset is going to grow at a higher rate over the same period of time and that is the same with the economy. Especially with oil prices down and then things like the potential for Longannet to be closed which will further reduce Scottish GDP, and look likely to increase energy dependence on England - all in an energy system which is distinctly disadvantageous to Scotland (or any location for that matter, the further away from London you get) while the national grid remains as a private interest organisation.
I could never see any positive impact of a No vote back in September as I feared that we'd continue to be asset stripped until there is nothing less. Then you find yourself in a situation where the strong economic performance of Scotland in the last 30 years seems like ancient history to London and Middle England and with them already grudging higher public spending levels in Scotland then where does that leave the family of nations when we genuinely don't contribute our share? That's the point at which the Empire grants/pushes their colonies to independence - when there's nothing left.
I notice that today's employment figures show an improvement for the rUK while Scotland has rising unemployment for the 2nd consecutive quarter which now stands at 6% vs the UK average of 5.6%
It looks to be a continued weakening of Scotland's position in comparison to the wider UK which can surely only get worse while we don't have control of our entire economy and affairs. The pull and force of London and the South East will continue to surely increasingly leave Scotland behind.
This needs to be a wake-up call for the country as this evolves and gets worse. The fact that we've had a stronger employment position for a long time as we've went through and emerged from the recession has actually muddied the waters as the SNP has used that for good short-term publicity but doing that detracts from the bigger picture which they need to focus on and it makes them look hypocritical if they now try to blame the UK for us now falling behind.
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It begs the simple question:-Murphy: English votes for English laws is 'betrayal of Scotland'
Hosie: The Tories have effectively ripped up the Smith commission report.
Why would a UK-wide party in this family of nations look to construct and oversee a 'betrayal of Scotland'? Jim??
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Were Killie not stung for this about 1990? When they had to replace the shield on their crest (as they were using the town crest as their badge effectively) with a football?
Sure St Mirren have also had a call from Lord Lyon forcing them to change their crest also.
Yep - In the mid-90's St.Mirren were forced to change our badge. We had to remove the castellations at the top of the badge and these were replaced with black and white stripes. Pish.
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What a lot of people don't realise also is that with FFA we shouldn't pay the £4 billion in debt service charges, we won't need to pay for the houses of parliament and we should pay at least £1 billion less for defence.
These costs should be spelt out more clearly.
Of course some of these items are arguable.
I'm on your side but I think that all of that is arguable.
If we take our share of the debt then we have the interest to pay on that so I can't see any improvement in that alone. With regards to defence - it would remain reserved under FFA so again, this would be no change there as to what we pay. Houses of Parliament are of UK importance and while we are part of the UK and sending MP's to Westminster then I don't see how we avoid paying for that.
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Scottish Debt: £125,547,209,200 (£125.5bn)UK Debt: £1,519,942,000,000 (£1,519.9bn)rUK Debt: £1,394,394,790,800 (£1,394.4bn)Scottish GDP: £152,765,000,000 (£152.8bn)UK GDP: £1,732,914,000,000 (£1,732.9bn)rUK GDP: £1,580,149,000,000 (£1,580.1bn)Scottish Debt to GDP ratio: 82.2%UK Debt to GDP ratio: 87.7%rUK Debt to GDP ratio: 88.2%Scottish debt is calculated as a population share.So - despite us having a larger budget deficit (as % of GDP), we have less debt to GDP - so we'd in a better position with FFA (which would give us control over debt) than the current arrangement. We'd could reduce debt repayments (to an appropriate figure) - allowing us to reduce our deficit.
The only thing I'd say to counter this is that this is statistics speak which can always be twisted. We can quote the GDP figure if we want but it comes down to how much tax revenue is generated and I think from memory that we are weaker from that perspective.
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Not nice huh?
All the more embarrassing for Labour that they shared a platform with these slimeballs for the referendum.
General Election Betting
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
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Where is the Tory price from?