Jie Bie
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Posts posted by Jie Bie
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I think the ICM poll which showed a Yes lead did nothing but send the BT campaign into overdrive and caused the silent Nos to turn out in their droves.
I don't think it helped Yes at all. Not saying there was an agenda behind it, it is just unfortunate...
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you will - you never fuqqqed up.
How can any of us sing that we can "rise now and be a nation again"?
Those are more than just words in a song, at least to me.
Sorry for the negativity.
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The England game will be horrendous now.
Don't know if I can face it.
Certainly won't be able to sing the anthem.
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Does anyone else now think we'll be lucky to see Yes take the lead at any point tonight?
Heard so much positivity today, but it seems like it was too good to be true...
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Why are BT so confident despite the high turnout?
Have the missing million voted no?
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Today is off the scale unprecedented. The bookies, the pollsters, the political 'experts', none of them have a scoobie what's going on. Only those who've been on the ground night after night talking to people on their doorsteps are anywhere near having a handle on it. I've done a wee bit myself (need to fly under the radar campaigning wise as us military types are supposed to be apolotical) but from what I've heard from several different areas, we're not just in this, we're winning it. 65% minimum
I really, really, really hope you are right.
Will be more than happy to buy you a pint or a dram before the Georgia game if we get 60%+
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I've been feeling sick to the pit of my stomach all day... Finding it difficult to concentrate on my work!
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Wow, this is from another staunch No'er on my facebook. If a guy like this, today can come across to Yes then we maybe could just do it
"For the majority of the past two years, I've argued the no campaign. Always seen strength in the union. I've got red, white and blue in my blood. But as I got in the lift at work like I do everyday, and it took me up and I looked out over my fair city. And thought to myself, this could all be ours, it is all ours why are we letting our neighbours dictate how much we get to spend on our way of life. It's our money and our country. We may never get another chance like this in our lifetime. We could come to regret not taking that chance. The chance to stand on our own two feet, heads held high like the proud Scots we are. Hope is what's driving the yes campaign, hope that we can go it alone. Hope that we can make Scotland a fairer and more just society. Hope will bring us all together not drive us apart. And it's with hope that I'll vote today #voteyes #indyref"
Seriously? If that is a genuine post from someone who woke up this morning a No voter I really will start to believe we can do this!
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Compared to what we could have been seeing this morning it's pretty tame.
No hangman's noose or "last man out turn off the lights" on any of the papers.
I know the media are biased, but at least we don't have any front pages which are completely offensive to half of the electorate.
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Why would you bother to register to vote in order to perpetuate a system in which you can't normally be bothered to vote?
Also, the polling companies have never polled for a Scottish independence referendum before - they've no idea what they're doing.
Yep, I'm thinking along the same lines. We will (hopefully) know by this time tomorrow whether it is wishful thinking or not.
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to this. Think the result will be tight but I'd hack my own right arm off right this minute if we could get a 63% Yes.
In my opinion very few average working class folk on the street will ever sign up for an online poll company either, in contrast to some comfortable middle class political anorak. And as you pointed out the16/17 year old vote may very well have been overlooked by many.
The polling companies are supposed to account for that - they've been in this business for quite some time and are supposed to know a fair bit about it!
I'm just hoping that all these people who have never voted, or don't normally bother to vote, aren't making their way to the polling stations today just to endorse the status quo.
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what sector do you work in? I am financial services and everyone here has the fear. its hugely a NO office.
Energy sector. Lot's of supporters in both camps, in fact one of my workmates is off today manning his local polling station for Yes.
Someone who voted No has told me he thinks Yes will win. I told him not to get my hopes up!
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Nearly everyone I know outside of work is voting Yes.
My work seems to be split 50/50. Quite a few of the guys who were planning on voting No a few months ago have told me that they've already voted Yes, or will be doing so tonight.
In the words of one of my workmates, "what done it for me was them continually telling us we can't run our own country".
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As a teenager I supported Labour and believed that Scotland couldn't afford to go it alone. Not an unusual point of view for someone who grew up under the shadow of Ravenscraig being shut down. However Imoved abroad for a few years after Uni, where I found myself mixing with folk from Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, Australia, Canada, New Zealand (and England!).
One day when I was back in Scotland it was like a light being turned on. I finally realised that if all these other countries could do it then so could we. I'd already decided that New Labour were never getting my vote again after the Iraq war, so I joined the SNP and have spent the last few years converting as many of my friends and family as possible to the Yes side.
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Another two Yes votes here!
Our polling station was pretty busy at 7.30am...
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Would have made for an easier victory IMO if the UK already been in the Euro.
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Dimbleby just said Gordon Brown is offering home rule!
He's a backbench MP FFS...
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But how many of the householders who plan on voting know (or simply don't know yet) told them Yes to get rid of them?
Maybe this is why both campaigns are convinced they are winning - lots of people are telling the No Thanks and Yes Scotland crews what they want to hear!
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Ipsos-Mori were within 1% of all parties in the last Scottish Elections. Phone poll only. They will bring out a poll tomorrow I think it is.
Are you talking about the Ipsos Mori poll released two weeks before the election? It did accurately predict what share of the vote the SNP would get for the constituency and regional list votes, however it also predicted Labour would do better than they actually did, in particular their prediction for Labour share of the vote in the regional list was significantly higher than what they ended up getting (32% vs 26%).
It's worth looking back at the final poll released on the eve of the 2011 election.
YouGov predicted: SNP 42/35 LAB 35/32 CON 11/13 LIB 8/7
The final scores were: SNP 45/44 LAB 32/26 CON 14/12 LIB 8/5
So they underestimated the SNP's regional vote by 9%! They overestimated the Labour vote by similar amounts.
I hope and pray that the pollsters are somehow vastly underestimating the Yes vote in the same way!
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I've got a bottle of Laga 16 sitting unopened since I was given it as a gift.
Hoping I will get the chance to taste it this Friday!
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Exit polls are particularly effective in UK general elections as they can deploy pollsters at those 50-100 or so marginal constituencies who decide the final result, which is a very different scenario to Thursday's vote.
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Why does a country need a state broadcaster anyway. Shouldn't all television be subject to the market.
In theory it provides a check against a big business controlled media. In theory...
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As others have said, the Sun loves to be seen as "wot won it". The reality of this means they tend to bide their time and back whoever looks like winning.
From that perspective, them coming out for Yes (if it happens) should be seen as a positive, despite the fact many of us choose not to buy it.
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Here's another nail in the No campaign's coffin: http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/boris-johnson-vows-to-resist-scots-tax-devolution-1-3505113
For those of you who have missed it, Boris has just been selected to run as MP for the safe Tory seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip.
Predictions
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
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It's the shy no voters that have done it. Just like the shy Tories that voted in major in 1992.
The pollsters had no previous vote to compare them with.