Jie Bie
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Posts posted by Jie Bie
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Orkney & Shetland, Edinburgh South and Coatbridge are three seats I don't expect the SNP to win.
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Any outcome that involves David Cameron in Downing Street is not a good outcome by any means.
He won't end up in Downing Street unless he can command a majority (in which case he clearly can claim legitimacy).
If Labour + SNP > 322 the only way Cameron can get into Number 10 is if enough Labour MPs abstain on a vote for a Tory Queen's Speech.
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Personally I'd like a candidate to show a bit of self respect and not sook the arse of Conservatives.
In the last two elections in this constituency the SNP finished in fourth place with less than 10% of the vote, whereas the Tories finished in second place in both elections.
The only way the SNP can win this seat is by convincing people who have voted for other parties in prior elections to vote SNP in this one. The SNP could choose to focus on Labour and LibDem voters, but in a seat where the Tories have won around 30% of the vote in the last two elections that would be a foolish strategy.
The sensible thing for the SNP to do in a seat like East Ren is to reach out to voters from all sides in the hope that enough of them change their mind. This compares with Labour - all they need to do is reach out to their existing voter base and convince enough them to vote for Labour once again. Surely that can't be that hard, after all they won 50% of the vote in 2010!
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What programming experience do you have? I've found Eclipse with the Android Development Tools plug-in quite good. Loads of resources online to get you going once you've downloaded and installed it. The included emulator is pretty good, but I've found it only runs well on fairly recent PC's.
http://developer.android.com/sdk/installing/installing-adt.html
Of course, that's not much help if you want to develop for iOS, but given that Apple are a bit stricter about what goes on their store would expect Android would be a good place to start.
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Would rather she toured 10+ marginals in the central belt in oneday, than take a day out of the campaign for one seat which will absolutely stay Libdem
Yeah you are probably right... Although it would be nice to see Carmichael getting his jotters it probably won't happen no matter what the SNP threw at it.
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Anyone else hoping Nicola makes a wee trip up to Orkney & Shetland during the closing days of the campaign?
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LibDems could have formed a coalition with Labour last time round instead they decided to get in to bed with the Tories. Lie with dogs and you get fleas. Under Clegg's watch: bedroom tax, austerity, cuts to the most vulnerable in society, exponential growth in food banks, zero hour contracts, rich get ricehr and poor get poorer. Wow - they must be really proud of their record in Govt. Have voted Lib Dem in the past, many councillors just like Labour are decent people with good values but as a party they have well and truly shot themselves in the foot.
I think that's a bit unfair on the Lib Dems - last time around Lab + LibDems gave them 315 MPs in the commons, well short of a majority. I know there was talk of a "rainbow coalition" but even with the SNP and SDLP MPs its unlikely it would be anything close to a stable government, and the Lib Dems would have been absolutely pilloried in the English press for supporting a party that won 48 fewer seats (and 2 million fewer votes) than the Tories.
If you ask me they should have stuck to their guns and asked for a vote on STV, however even if they'd managed to get a referendum on that it probably wouldn't have passed with both major parties campaigning against it.
On the positive side at least they did see sense and get the boundary changes proposed for this election postponed until 2018, even if that was just getting their own back on the Tories for blocking proposals for an elected upper chamber. If those boundary changes had gone through I expect Cameron would be heading for a majority, or at least very close to it.
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Will be interesting to see if he can pull it off (assuming he ends up as PM). They tried this before but when Labour put it to the Commons for a vote in 2003 enough of their own backbenchers voted against it to ensure it didn't happen.
http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-library/hllreformchronology.pdf (see entry for 4th February 2003).
Although this time around we will hopefully have enough SNP MPs to help Ed get it through.
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I guess if you were a master spinner you could argue that they aren't an establishment on the basis that they "have hardly any MP's". But that would take massive spin and a hell of a brass neck!
Refusing seats in the House of Lords and campaigning for it to be abolished and replaced with an elected senate does give them a few anti-establishment points in my book.
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My local Labour MP has been sending begging letters to Tory and LibDem voters in an attempt to save his job.
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It's debatable whether or not Germany can be considered nuclear-free, they host some of the USA's nukes.All I'm saying is you can be pro NATO and anti Nuclear weapons you seem to think the two are linked. I.e. No nuclear weapons then you get kicked out of or not let into NATO.
Talk to the citizens of Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, Iceland, Lithuania, etc. All Nuclear free countries.
J
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Been with my wife for 13 years this year and never once have I put her in a position where she's had to make her own way home. Have seen me walking some distance just to go and meet her and walk her up the road.
Just not worth the chance. They're maybe only a tiny minority of the population but you never know when one of these sick cockwombles is out there.
Very sensible.Always try to do the same.
Yup. Always done the same with any lassie i've been going out with.
What do yous do if she wants a night out while you are travelling due to work or away on a TA trip / stag do?
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Is there anyway to find poll's for your specific area?
Looks like labour romped here (Glasgow South) in 2010 and I'm keen to see how the SNP are getting on.
Here's a link to Lord Ashcroft's Glasgow South poll - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Glasgow-South-Jan-2015-Full-data-tables.pdf(although it is from January)
Full list of his Scottish polls available here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/scottish-battleground/and here: http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/campaign-state-play-plus-latest-marginals/
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to be clear
The Tories are masters at keeping power, they will do anything to hold onto power..
If the Tories need the SNP seats, or, more likely, if they neutralise them so Labour cant use them, and therefore give the Tories a bigger working group....
What If the Tories put FFA in a Queens speach, and dare the SNP to vote against it...
What would Nicola do..
FFA is great for Scotland, but a deal with the Tories could kill the SNP..
What is more imprtant to Nicola, Scotland or the SNP.....
The SNP have decided that the best strategy to counter Murphy's "Vote SNP get Cameron" mantra is to state the SNP will vote against any Tory queen's speech.
They can't turn their back on that promise - unless they are willing to sacrifice the party to get Home Rule on the Tories terms.
Personally I think the SNP has such big vote right now because 1. Post No they are seen as no danger for No voters. The have been castrated by the NO vote for 10 years at least probably longer. So they can vote for them without fear the neo-eunuchs will try to shag the union again. 2. The alternatives have gotten so horrific what alternative do they have.
Boom. SNP landslide.
But for all the wrong reasons and it leaves me a little cold.
Scots are mental. Vote No and then give the SNP a landslide.... I am actually getting a bit bored of it.
I don't see where any of this is realistically going. Are we going to keep this up for the next 10 years?
Don't understand the bit in bold. 45% of us voted Yes, and opinion polls suggest fairly similar percentage (maybe a wee bit higher) will probably vote SNP in a couple of weeks.
Yes, the SNP may win a landslide of >50 seats if they can win 45%+ of the vote across the country, but that's got more to do with First Past the Post than Scots being mental!
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Check out ralfystuff on YouTube. Over 500 whisky reviews in his own inimitable style.
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Eck makes it clear that it's a vote by vote backing. IMO if we went to a vote the Tories and Labour would back Tridwnt and it will get passed.
SNP keeps its integrity (by trying to vote it down with the Libs, Greens etc) and the vote goes your way Anna.
Not so sure about that. If Labour have a minority government which is reliant on SNP support the Tories will be champing at the bit for the SNP to withdraw support for a key bill to allow them to force another election.
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Nearly 8% for the greens!?
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Disappointed to read that Sturgeon is against the decriminalisation of cannabis. It's a plant for fecks sake.
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Curleys in Shawlands. -
It's not Murphy, but I thought it was worth adding to this thread...
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We shouldn't ally with the Borg just to fight species 8472 to use a star trek analogy.
Even if it gets us closer to our destination?
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There is absolutely no way they've just won an historic independence referendum, and fudged the Smith Commission to be utterly toothless, to then give up devo max, full fiscal autonomy and everything else because the SNP had a great election. They'd sooner rerun the election or go into government together.
(And this is where I disagree with Parklife. If devo max was somehow offered (and I don't think there is any chance it will), the SNP must take it. It is too good an offer to refuse. There is no way I would gamble full fiscal autonomy in the hope the next referendum was successful.)
IMO there's no chance Labour would agree to go into government with the Tories - they'd be signing their own death sentence!
Going by the tone of this thread.... Does this mean that the SNP boys and girls don't agree that lovely Nicola has played a blinder in removing the red line of Trident on a Labour agreement?
For me, I wouldn't be happy if the cost of Home Rule was that Trident got renewed and stayed on the Clyde.
However, surely it would be idiotic of any government to spend billions on a weapons system that was based in a part of their country which was likely to secede in the near future?
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Im with Parklife. It is not acceptable for the SNP to prop up either the Tories or Labour now. Mainly from a principled stance, but it would be suicidal politics to even entertain the notion. Just take one look at the Liberal Democrats. The last thing the SNP should be doing is trying to play the Westminster game.
I like the cut of your jib though - if the SNP is invited to any negotiations, they should play along but the price should be devo max. Nothing less. And they should make it a very public negotiation because there will only be one reply to that request - no. I really hope this is why Trident is being sidelined a bit. Any negotiation the SNP shows up to should be to demand what was Scotland was promised: federalism, devo max, home rule. It's right, it's relevant and it has public opinion on their side.
There's no way they will agree to it though which is why they should be asked. I really hope this happens.
Why wouldn't they agree to it? Dangle the keys to Downing Street in front of Ed or Dave and they'd probably agree to anything!
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I've got to be honest, if the SNP propped up either a Labour or Tory Government, i'd struggle to ever vote for them again.
Even if the price paid was home rule, so the Scottish Parliament was given responsibility for everything except Defence and Foreign Affairs?
Scottish Seats - Prediction Time
in Anything Goes - Other topics not covered elsewhere
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SNP - 45
LAB - 12
LIB - 1
CON - 1
Unfortunately I think the likes of Tom Clarke, Dougie Alexander and Murphy will be be able to hang on, most likely with three figure majorities.
However, any result which leaves the SNP with more seats than Labour won in 2010 is an emphatic victory and any attempt by the media to say otherwise should be met with derision.