Before anyone has a go, I was just trying to kill some time this afternoon and increase my optimism, following this week's 'news'. Took the list of Scottish council area and populations from Wikipedia, and multiplied them by 81% to get an approximate number of voters for each area. Assumed a 100% turnout!!! and randomly applied some percentages based on nothing apart from knowing Glasgow and Dundee look like over 50% yes and border regions look like being low - I haven't a clue about anywhere else. I'm sure there are other regions, which will return over 50%, but I am naturally pessimistic. 45% for yes not too bad, but hopefully this will be the maximum for NO next week. Anyone with a bet on over 45% for YES a long time ago, is certainly now a bit richer - well done.
l think this is going to boil down to motivation/turnout in the higher populated areas. I also think that YES campaigners/voters will have a much greater visual presence near polling stations on the day. Once people see what's in front of them in the booth, some may decide 'Aw fuq, let's go for it'. No voters, don't want change and will naturally and understandably tend to keep a lower profile.
Just thinking as well, assuming an 80% turnout on 4.3 million voters - 3.44 million. The winner requires 1.72 million votes plus 1. If YES have 1.3 million signed up (not sure if this is correct) then that is a pretty healthy figure already. Also, I can't believe there are 1.72 million people in this country ready to vote NO - just doesn't seem right.
1
City of Glasgow 480,168 55 264,092 2 City of Edinburgh 393,741 42 165,371 3 Fife 295,650 45 133,043 4 North Lanarkshire 264,384 45 118,973 5 South Lanarkshire 252,639 45 113,688 6 Aberdeenshire 199,098 42 83,621 7 Highland 179,496 42 75,388 8 City of Aberdeen 175,851 45 79,133 9 West Lothian 139,401 42 58,548 10 Renfrewshire 137,943 45 62,074 11 Falkirk 124,173 42 52,153 12 Dumfries and Galloway 120,042 35 42,015 13 Perth and Kinross 119,718 45 53,873 14 City of Dundee 116,883 59 68,961 15 North Ayrshire 109,512 45 49,280 16 East Ayrshire 97,362 45 43,813 17 Scottish Borders 91,449 35 32,007 18 South Ayrshire 90,234 42 37,898 19 Angus 89,586 45 40,314 20 East Dunbartonshire 84,726 42 35,585 21 East Lothian 78,975 45 35,539 22 West Dunbartonshire 73,386 42 30,822 23 Stirling 72,819 42 30,584 24 East Renfrewshire 72,495 45 32,623 25 Argyll and Bute 72,252 42 30,346 26 Moray 71,037 45 31,967 27 Midlothian 65,691 45 29,561 28 Inverclyde 64,638 45 29,087 29 Clackmannanshire 40,986 42 17,214 30 Na h-Eileanan Siar (Western Isles) 21,222 45 9,550 31 Shetland Islands 18,144 42 7,620 32 Orkney Islands 16,281 42 6,838 4,229,982 1,901,581 44.95%
ETA Mmm this was a spreadsheet, which looked OK when I first posted it - format gone pear-shaped - oh well!!
