Clyde1998 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Expecting a YouGov and Panelbase poll tonight. Expecting 50%+ yes from Panelbase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParisInAKilt Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Is there a source on the panelbase one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde1998 Posted August 30, 2014 Author Share Posted August 30, 2014 Is there a source on the panelbase one? No, but my prediction is based on the movement of the other pollsters. Panelbase is the most yes friendly pollster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasMc1973 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 won't be accurate, no one's asked me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncan Blackheart Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yes back out to 4/1 for what that's worth. Hearing rumours about a bit of a dirty trick in the pipeline...not sure what impact that will have if true. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Earth Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 I expect BT to go all out with the racism card going in to the last week. Heard on twitter that they've been telling Poles that if we vote YES they'll all have to go home. Seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 The polls have been between 3 and 4 to 1 for the past few days. In fact, most have been closer to 4 than 3. don't think the odds have move significantly the past day to indicate any worrying of dirty tricks. would be interested to hear about this though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yes back out to 4/1 for what that's worth. Hearing rumours about a bit of a dirty trick in the pipeline...not sure what impact that will have if true. Political Odds Checker is all over the place at moment. Roughly same number of bookies showing Yes odds drifting as shortening. Only William Hill showing 4-1 though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stapes Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 It's hard to pull a dirty trick in the full glare of publicity. Remember the Spanish govt implying the train bomb was placed by ETA? Look what happened when they were found out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Political Odds Checker is all over the place at moment. Roughly same number of bookies showing Yes odds drifting as shortening. Only William Hill showing 4-1 though. Exactly my point AR!! :-) totally over the place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yeah, Im not sure what No can pull off now. My biggest fear was the Murphy circus to be honest - if that had persisted, I could see it getting much worse. Hope it stays postponed. Was really hoping for a big headline for Yes in tomorrows papers although would still prefer a poll lead to wait until next Sunday at earliest. Fact some bookies are drifting suggest no major announcement imminent - would expect them to have got wind of a Yes lead by now if it was coming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainmac1 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Yes back out to 4/1 for what that's worth. Hearing rumours about a bit of a dirty trick in the pipeline...not sure what impact that will have if true. And what trick is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scunnered Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 And what trick is that? To spread paranoia among the Yes ranks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Actually, just checked Political Odds Checker again and most of the bookie activity today has been odds shortening (albeit slightly) for Yes. 4 small corrections tonight and all have been odds shortening but probably just reflecting the market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duncan Blackheart Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Good point. Should have thought that post through. A bit drunk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orraloon Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 To spread paranoia among the Yes ranks... Seems to be working. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mariokempes56 Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Is paranoia like Ebola of the brain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frew Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Now only one 4/1 left on Oddschecker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flat Earth Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Ladbrokes odds of a 50-55% result has dropped from 8/1 to 4/1 since 19th August. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cove_Sheep Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Angus MacNeill retweeting some rumours of a Sunday Herald poll that would put it at 50-50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Hmmmm. I thought we'd be seeing clear signs of an impending poll - all seems a bit quiet. No hints from Sunday Herald about a poll... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damo Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 About this time the other night when the survation poll was due the odds started to shift. So far tonight not much movement so i'm taking talk of significant moves in polls with a pinch of salt. As Auld_reekie says not a peep from sunday herald on twitter about this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tartan Tarantula Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 You'd definately see one of the papers tweeting something by now about a poll coming out. Have to say, apart from the survation poll a couple of days ago, which showed some major issues with the yes vote, it's been awfy quiet the last TWO weeks. I'm not one for conspiracy theories in the slightest. I think the polls reflect the actual situation across scotland by and large, but this absence of any polling suggests whoever has commissioned the polls doesn't like the answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Auld_Reekie Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 You'd definately see one of the papers tweeting something by now about a poll coming out. Have to say, apart from the survation poll a couple of days ago, which showed some major issues with the yes vote, it's been awfy quiet the last TWO weeks. I'm not one for conspiracy theories in the slightest. I think the polls reflect the actual situation across scotland by and large, but this absence of any polling suggests whoever has commissioned the polls doesn't like the answer. Maybe. It's not really possible for both sides not to like the results of a poll, unless both have commissioned polls that return conflicting data with bad news for the commissioning campaign. It's difficult to see a poll returning bad news for Yes right now so it's more likely there is polling returning Yes in a great position and Yes just don't want to release it. Fundamentally, Im working on the assumption that if there was good news for No, we'd have polls in the papers. That is, silence is good for Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cove_Sheep Posted August 30, 2014 Share Posted August 30, 2014 Not poll related, but... Kevin Pringle @KevinJPringle 1m A woman pictured in the UK govt £720,000 taxpayer-funded vote No booklet says . . #voteYes! Check out the @newsundayherald and @ScottishSun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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