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Cove_Sheep

Jeremy Corbyn - fecked?

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10 hours ago, ErsatzThistle said:

There is a lot of rancid, thuggish, pondlife enlisted in the British Army.

However most people refuse to believe it and convince themselves that they are all salt of the earth, cheeky chappie "squaddies". Not true.

The clip came on the TV in work today. The responses by the 2 people watching it were ‘ to be honest, he’s no a bad shot’ and  ‘ he’s been made a scapegoat. They should be after the person who took the video’ . 

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Funniest thing if Corbyn did get in power they'd probably not be in hell-holes and when they get back home get better care under Corbyn as well.

 

The army is full of folk that will shoot/bomb folk someone they have never met just cause someone tells them to.

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The man is a cunt 

Period

 

  • Upvote 1

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5 hours ago, Ally Bongo said:

The man is a cunt 

Period

 

i think the acid test on this issue is: what do Labour do in Wales? We hear very little about what they are up to there. Surely they are in the same boat as the SNP in Holyrood. They have to deal with Tory austerity and make choices about what to do about it. So my question (to Labour) is, what do they do in Wales? Have they ushered in a socialist utopia, are they leading they way or lagging behind?

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With respect, he's hardly likely to big up a rival party that more or less wiped his own out in seats that his party desperately need to win back if they are to get anywhere near government. The SNP target Labour big-time, successfully. It shouldn't really be a shock that he will do the reverse. I suspect that if the SNP were to end up holding the balance of power at some future point, they would both start to find a lot more that they have in common.

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Another bad night for Labour in Scotland in the Haddington and Lammermuir by-election.   While technically it was a Tory hold - the by-election was as a result of a Tory councillor resigning - it is notionally a Labour ward and so one they'd expect to win, except they ended up in third behind the SNP on FP votes.
 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, thplinth said:

Seems like the twat in the hat is saying Corbyn is fucked. He does know the labour party.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/460369-election-corbyn-farage-eu-brexit/

Some good old fashioned rhetoric there

"Bled pale by compromise, appeasement of his enemies – the fifth column without whom he’d have already been in Downing St – and the relentless attrition of false accusations, fake news and sheer mendacity, Corbyn is now a dead man walking."

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He is supposedly going to back a second referendum (peoples vote) unequivocally tomorrow

Knowing that it will never happen

I have imagined a nuclear scenario in my head where the Labour Party comes all out Remain and people in Scotland let themselves be duped again

However the likelihood of the Tories calling a General Election is slim never mind a second EU referendum

 

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US Secretary for State Mike Pompeo has come under fire after a recording emerged of him saying he’d intervene to stop Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. In the recording first reported by the Washington Post, Pompeo suggests he won’t wait for Corbyn to be elected, rather he’ll attempt to stop it from being possible.

The off the record meeting was from when The Secretary for State met Jewish leaders to discuss Donald Trump’s proposed Peace Deal between Palestine and Israel.

 

https://medium.com/black-isle-journalism/mike-pompeo-threatens-to-intervene-in-british-democracy-to-stop-corbyn-becoming-prime-minister-609611b6e1ae

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3 hours ago, phart said:

US Secretary for State Mike Pompeo has come under fire after a recording emerged of him saying he’d intervene to stop Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. In the recording first reported by the Washington Post, Pompeo suggests he won’t wait for Corbyn to be elected, rather he’ll attempt to stop it from being possible.

The off the record meeting was from when The Secretary for State met Jewish leaders to discuss Donald Trump’s proposed Peace Deal between Palestine and Israel.

https://medium.com/black-isle-journalism/mike-pompeo-threatens-to-intervene-in-british-democracy-to-stop-corbyn-becoming-prime-minister-609611b6e1ae

Wow, nice to hear it spoken out loud. US secretary of state can intervene and stop a democratically elected prime minister of the UK happening if he decides. I don't doubt it but I wonder how.

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This is the only chance for Corbyn supporters to change the Labour party. If they don't take this chance right now (they only have two weeks to do it) then Labour will remain nothing more than Red Tories forever. Anybody who is a member of the Labour party or a Trade Union, and wants to see their party changed, need do to do something about it very soon. 

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/104825/labour-mps-purge-fear-they-are-given-two-week

 

 

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1 hour ago, Orraloon said:

This is the only chance for Corbyn supporters to change the Labour party. If they don't take this chance right now (they only have two weeks to do it) then Labour will remain nothing more than Red Tories forever. Anybody who is a member of the Labour party or a Trade Union, and wants to see their party changed, need do to do something about it very soon. 

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/104825/labour-mps-purge-fear-they-are-given-two-week

 

 

Tom Watson again.

PoliticsHome revealed last week that moderate Labour MPs were to be given lessons on how to avoid being deselected.

The seminar, organised by Tom Watson's 'Future Britain Group', was designed to "give colleagues the chance to share their local strategies for preparing for trigger ballots" and was held on Monday night.

 

Not sure what "moderate" means in this context.

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2 hours ago, phart said:

 

 

Not sure what "moderate" means in this context.

I think we can have a good guess?;)

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This analysis suggests Corbyn less likely to become PM than an alternative leader because not enough people trust him on Brexit. It suggests

  • under current approach, Lib Dems would hoover up the Remain vote and win general election
  • Corbyn switching to a strong pro-Remain stance would simply split the remain vote and see Tories win.
  • A Starmer led Labour could - just - do enough to win (be largest party) 

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/06/only-brexit-position-can-win-labour-election-remove-jeremy-corbyn

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2 hours ago, exile said:

This analysis suggests Corbyn less likely to become PM than an alternative leader because not enough people trust him on Brexit. It suggests

  • under current approach, Lib Dems would hoover up the Remain vote and win general election
  • Corbyn switching to a strong pro-Remain stance would simply split the remain vote and see Tories win.
  • A Starmer led Labour could - just - do enough to win (be largest party) 

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2019/06/only-brexit-position-can-win-labour-election-remove-jeremy-corbyn

What analysis? They have Keir Starmer as the leader of the Labour party in one part, how they did they get that data?

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1 hour ago, phart said:

What analysis? They have Keir Starmer as the leader of the Labour party in one part, how they did they get that data?

The analysis, on the web page linked to, of what appears to be a survey featuring some hypothetical options including future party leaders. I could not see details of the survey; when I tried clicking on the charts it led to a subscription page, 

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8 minutes ago, exile said:

The analysis, on the web page linked to, of what appears to be a survey featuring some hypothetical options including future party leaders. I could not see details of the survey; when I tried clicking on the charts it led to a subscription page, 

Yeah i clicked the links etc, I can't see any real analysis, i see an opinion piece by a senior member of the Fabian society think tank. Worked for New Labour and the Democrats too.

I'm just struggling to find any facts in the piece to start making a coherent argument.

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9 hours ago, phart said:

Yeah i clicked the links etc, I can't see any real analysis, i see an opinion piece by a senior member of the Fabian society think tank. Worked for New Labour and the Democrats too.

I'm just struggling to find any facts in the piece to start making a coherent argument.

The facts are the polling data that the author's referring to - I assume since he works for YouGov, that it's YouGov data - but the analysis - such as it is, is fundamentally flawed.

First of all, it doesn't take any account of Scotland where, recent polling suggests that the SNP are polling around 40% for the next UK GE which would see the SNP get around 50 seats.

You could pass that off as being symptomatic of the usual metropolitan bubble that a lot of commentators live in but the more serious flaw is that he is equating vote share directly with seats in the HoC and as we all know under FPTP, that is not necessarily the case.   Simply put, if Labour, Tories & Lib Dems all got 33% of the vote nationwide then Labour and the Tories would win more constituencies and hence get more seats than the Lib Dems, who would be finish up second in the majority.     

The Brexit Party is more of an unknown, however based on UKIP performance in previous GEs - discount 2017 - I'd say they'd be similar to the Lib Dems in that they'd pick up a lot of votes but less seats than they'd get under a PR system.

Using Electoral Calculus - and plugging in the Scotland data from the last Panelbase poll - you get the following predictions for each of the scenarios in the article.

Scenario 1 (As you were) - LD 263, CON 138, LAB 111, Brexit 67, SNP 50 - which would result in a Lib Dem led coalition with Labour having a majority of 25.

Scenario 2 (Labour back Remain with untrustworthy Corbyn) - CON 268, LAB 209, LD 68, Brexit 34, SNP 50.   A genuinely hung parliament - a Tory/Brexit coalition with support from the DUP would still fall short of an overall majority by around 8 or 9 seats.   Labour would probably be the only party that could command the support of the house but would need to pull together a "grand coalition" with not only the Lib Dems & SNP but the Greens & PC.   (I'm assuming NI arithmetic as it currently stands)

Scenario 3 (Labour back remain but with trustworthy Starmer) - Labour 266, Tories 226, LD 59, Brexit 27, SNP 50.  Labour would need support from both the SNP and LDs to govern but this would give them a comfortable majority.

So in all three scenarios, this sees Labour "in power", as a junior partner in one case but as the party of government in two.   

What the analysis should have been was that in the current political climate it is impossible for Labour to win an overall majority and that is regardless of who the leader is.  Corbyn is a divisive figure for some but even with a more vanilla leader like Keir Starmer, they still fall some way short.  
 

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