Jump to content

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, aaid said:

on the first point, people lie and people change their minds.  Sorry but the actual numbers just don't stack up to support what you are saying.

On the second point.  GIven that the UK is out of the EU and rejoining it would appear to be a position that has majority support in Scotland and so therefore likely to happen, how would they vote in a subsequent Indy Ref.  Would they prioritise being out of the EU over being independent or not?

Explain how the numbers don't add up

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 16k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Thplinth's typical reaction whenever he's respectfully challenged by other posters about his (borderline spam posting) increasingly paranoid, conspiracy supporting, right wing views ..... T

You think you're becoming more pragmatic, can see both sides, with age and then an individual turns your country into a colony.  And I use that word advisedly. Don't even need to defend their pos

You might think Denise and the #iamthestorm crowd are exaggerating, but just look at the evidence. Over here in Ireland we've had gender recognition certificates for years now. As a result, Irela

Posted Images

So the Panelbase/Sunday Times poll seems to have a number of positives from the pro-indy perspective:

  • Pro indy majority, and pro indy votes > 50%
  • SNP majority, and SNP seats predicted up from 2016
  • Net gain in 10 pro indy seats
  • Alba party achieves 6 seats, which takes them ahead of the LibDems

(All natural caveats about trusting opinion polls applicable)

Link to post
Share on other sites

And I see there's also a Ballot Box Scotland prediction, from the same poll, but arriving at slighly different, but similar, conclusions, on the seats gained:

Projecting Panelbase 30 Mar - 1 Apr into seats (changes vs 3 -5 Mar / vs 2016):

SNP ~ 66 (+1 / +3)

Con ~ 25 (-5 / -6)

Lab ~ 19 (-6 / -5)

Grn ~ 9 (+6 / +3)

Alba ~ 5 (+5 / +5)

LD ~ 4 (-2 / -1)

AFU ~ 1 (+1 / +1)

Source: @BallotBoxScot

Compared with Curtice's predictions, there are actually 11 extra indy seats, and 5 for Alba.

But interestingly SNP still manage an increase in seats and votes since March prediction, and Green also up in terms of votes and seats.

Also it looks as if the overall indy vote has gone up - even on the list, SNP down 3 % points but Green up 2 and Alba up 6. A net gain of 5 % points. Hard not to think Alba part of that effect, also maybe the demise of ISP/AFI who might have been rounded down and out of previous polling? or generally a bounce back from a low of March during the inquiry peak #SNPbad period.

Image

Image

Edited by exile
Link to post
Share on other sites

I still believe alba will end up with around 10% of the voteand that’s being cautious. No indy friendly voter cant say that it hasn't giving this election a shot in the arm which was sorely needed, its taken the apathy away,, George galloways party will get any seats IMO

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Explain how the numbers don't add up

In the Aberdeenshire council area in the 2014 referendum there were 108606 people who voted No against 71337 who voted Yes.  A ratio of 60/40.  Higher than the national vote, by anyone's measure a strong Unionist area.

If you take the numbers polled for the SNP in the constituency in 2011 as a pre-referendum guesstimate and scale that up to take into account the low turnout in 2011 - so trying to compare SNP votes in 2011 vs Yes votes in 2014 on the same level of turnout - that would mean that around 44% of all Yes votes in Aberdeenshire would have to have come from BB&C.

If you do similar for Aberdeenshire East and West, then there were 83350 adjusted SNP votes.  That excludes the portion of Angus and Mearns that falls in Aberdeenshire Council, so the actual number would be higher than that.

So there were a lot of people in Aberdeenshire that voted SNP in 2011 and voted No in 2014 and a lot of them would have to be in B&BC.  I think it's out of the question that B&BC voted Yes as you suggest, all you are doing is moving the "blame" onto the other constituencies in the county.

Your suggestion that it was down to Deeside, similarly doesn't stack up.  The SNP share of the vote in 2011 in Aberdeenshire West - although they won - was only 42.5% which is a lot lot closer to the referendum result than B&BC and Aberdeenshire East.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, aaid said:

In the Aberdeenshire council area in the 2014 referendum there were 108606 people who voted No against 71337 who voted Yes.  A ratio of 60/40.  Higher than the national vote, by anyone's measure a strong Unionist area.

If you take the numbers polled for the SNP in the constituency in 2011 as a pre-referendum guesstimate and scale that up to take into account the low turnout in 2011 - so trying to compare SNP votes in 2011 vs Yes votes in 2014 on the same level of turnout - that would mean that around 44% of all Yes votes in Aberdeenshire would have to have come from BB&C.

If you do similar for Aberdeenshire East and West, then there were 83350 adjusted SNP votes.  That excludes the portion of Angus and Mearns that falls in Aberdeenshire Council, so the actual number would be higher than that.

So there were a lot of people in Aberdeenshire that voted SNP in 2011 and voted No in 2014 and a lot of them would have to be in B&BC.  I think it's out of the question that B&BC voted Yes as you suggest, all you are doing is moving the "blame" onto the other constituencies in the county.

Your suggestion that it was down to Deeside, similarly doesn't stack up.  The SNP share of the vote in 2011 in Aberdeenshire West - although they won - was only 42.5% which is a lot lot closer to the referendum result than B&BC and Aberdeenshire East.

I can tell you with as much certainty as i can that B&B voted yes, anyone with local political knowledge knows this, just look at the 2015 GE where whiteford got 60% of the vote,did anywgere else in the country have a bigger snp vote share?  There were many tories i know who voted yes to add on top of that 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I can tell you with as much certainty as i can that B&B voted yes, anyone with local political knowledge knows this, just look at the 2015 GE where whiteford got 60% of the vote,did anywgere else in the country have a bigger snp vote share?  There were many tories i know who voted yes to add on top of that 

That's exactly my point. The vote for the SNP didn't translate to votes for independence. 

There's two possible explanations.

The first one is that the SNP/Indy vote held up, but virtually *all* those people who don't normally vote but who turned out at the referendum, voted No.

The other is that a significant percentage of those who voted - and continued to vote for the SNP in 2015 actually voted no.

I suspect the latter is the more likely, but regardless of that, trying to claim that the constituency voted Yes in 2014 when the evidence points you in a different direction is deluded.  

Link to post
Share on other sites

“Considering Scotland has all the necessary machinery in place to become an independent state, we see no obvious reasons why Scotland would not succeed economically if it were to do so, especially if achieved within the bounds of the law. Although our findings might be controversial to some, we hope to show that Scottish independence, while not inevitable, is far more nuanced a matter than many have claimed. There exist several options worth pursuing for the parties to this debate.”

https://pontifex.substack.com/p/scott-and-chapmans-censored-article?fbclid=IwAR39Ud4M0R4bZRkXPI8K5fwzHTAX2nfNUP4fYGgG9b0YUcQr2WuYZ9lKxyI

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

“Considering Scotland has all the necessary machinery in place to become an independent state, we see no obvious reasons why Scotland would not succeed economically if it were to do so, especially if achieved within the bounds of the law. Although our findings might be controversial to some, we hope to show that Scottish independence, while not inevitable, is far more nuanced a matter than many have claimed. There exist several options worth pursuing for the parties to this debate.”

https://pontifex.substack.com/p/scott-and-chapmans-censored-article?fbclid=IwAR39Ud4M0R4bZRkXPI8K5fwzHTAX2nfNUP4fYGgG9b0YUcQr2WuYZ9lKxyI

So that seems to be an opionion that only holds true if no UDI is declared etc.

Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, aaid said:

That's exactly my point. The vote for the SNP didn't translate to votes for independence. 

There's two possible explanations.

The first one is that the SNP/Indy vote held up, but virtually *all* those people who don't normally vote but who turned out at the referendum, voted No.

The other is that a significant percentage of those who voted - and continued to vote for the SNP in 2015 actually voted no.

I suspect the latter is the more likely, but regardless of that, trying to claim that the constituency voted Yes in 2014 when the evidence points you in a different direction is deluded.  

What ever you say jack, you dont think it,, i do and so does the head of the local conservative party who i know very well, we also also voted for brexit 

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

I still believe alba will end up with around 10% of the voteand that’s being cautious. No indy friendly voter cant say that it hasn't giving this election a shot in the arm which was sorely needed, its taken the apathy away,, George galloways party will get any seats IMO

10% seems awful high. I initially thought Alba would win seats and still lean to that. Not even sure about Salmond.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, iainmac1 said:

10% seems awful high. I initially thought Alba would win seats and still lean to that. Not even sure about Salmond.

Maybe, time will tell but that is just my gut feeling ATM,, that may change closer to polling day 

Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, hampden_loon2878 said:

Maybe, time will tell but that is just my gut feeling ATM,, that may change closer to polling day 

My initial post reads all wrong. Meant to say initially inthiught Alba would win 0 seats and still lean towards that. Salmond included.

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, iainmac1 said:

Have any of these polls given regional polling variations? I would be interested to see what Salmond is polling.

Not that i have seen, i dare say that this may come out with the massive interest in the list vote this elections 

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, iainmac1 said:

Have any of these polls given regional polling variations? I would be interested to see what Salmond is polling.

Generally they do and will be included in the data which tends to be released a few days after the polls are published.  Often you have to look at the data to get an understanding of what is actually going on in the headline figures, eg. last months dip in support for independence was as a result of changes to how likely people would be to vote rather than the way they would vote.

A big health warning though.

A typical poll in Scotland will cover around 1000 people.  For someone polling at 6%, that equates to around 60 people.  Split across 8 regions, that's 7-8 people per region.  If your sample happens to pick up one or two people more - or less - who support that party than would be an accurate reflection then that can obviously skew the numbers.   That's compounded by there not being enough data for Alba and AFU to know suggest what that "accurate reflection" is and adjust for it.
 

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Wasn’t long before his sex and skin colour was used against him. 

He’s probably too Scottish as well. 

And cis 

Racist, sexist, ageist... one hell of a post! :lol:

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ParisInAKilt said:

Wasn’t long before his sex and skin colour was used against him. 

He’s probably too Scottish as well. 

And cis 

Used against who?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...



×
×
  • Create New...